By David Vance On November 3rd, 2011 at 12:46 pm
I’m reading that Greek PM Papandreou is about to offer his resignation. I am not surprised. There has been enormous pressure brought to bear on him ever since he decided to consult the Greek people on whether Greece should accept the burdens and responsibilities of the Bail Out. France and Germany – MERKOZY as someone wittily put it – have made it clear that the Greek people MUST not speak on this issue. Why? Because they will give the wrong answer – they will say NO – and Greece will exit the Eurozone.
I listened to Sarkozy earlier state that either Greece accepted the Bail-Out or it should leave the EU. But I THOUGHT that no country could leave the EU? Has Sarkozy let the cat out of the bag? If Greece can leave the EU, any country can leave the EU.
The thing that is most remarkable about all of this is the UTTER contempt the political elite carry for the people. Papandreou did the unthinkable. He offered his people a voice. And so he will resign and new stooges will come in “to get the deal” alive. This can only be done by imposing the will of Germany-France on the Greek people. No ifs or buts. In a word – tyranny.
Perhaps the most poignant aspect of all of this is that it doesn’t matter WHO runs the Greek government, Brussels will tell it what to do and in this way we see that democracy is dead in this former cradle of civilisation. Here’s an apt quote from Plato;
“As the builders say, the larger stones do not lie well without the lesser.”
Greece, along with several other ClubMed nations, cannot co-exist in economic union with Germany and France UNLESS they give up any pretence of National Sovereignty. That’s what is happening in Greece RIGHT NOW.
By David Vance On November 1st, 2011 at 9:04 am
You would need to have a heart of stone NOT to laugh at the reaction from Europhiles to the news that Greece is going to hold a referendum on whether it should accept the austerity measures require of it under EU/IMF terms. Now, given the riots that characterise the streets of Athens and other Greek cities these days, I figure a resounding NO is the answer. Naturally, the markets have responded as one might expect.
European markets have opened lower following Monday’s announcement of a Greek referendum on the latest aid package to solve its debt crisis. Eurozone leaders agreed a 100bn-euro (£86bn; $140bn) loan to Athens and a 50% debt write-off last week. But the announcement of a referendum has cast doubt on whether the deal will be able to go ahead.
Listen, the Eurozone Bail Out is doomed to fail and, entertainingly, it looks like Greece of all nations will see it collapse! Papandreo is doing a little triangulating, covering his political posterior, so that when he rejects the calls for austerity, he can use the will of the people to deflect the firestorm. The Euro elite are being outmaneouvred by the calculating Greeks – and they will either have to let Greece get away with making the essential corrective actions OR face the collapse of the Eurozone. Tragedy or comedy – you decide!
By David Vance On October 31st, 2011 at 8:48 am
Oh no – the Commies aren’t interested in saving the Euros.
Hopes that China will ride to the rescue of the single currency were dealt a blow last night after Beijing warned that it will not be Europe’s ‘saviour’. State-run news agency Xinhua said the country cannot ‘provide a cure for the European malaise’. It came after European officials begged China for bailout funds to help protect large economies such as Italy and Spain from financial ruin.
As you know, last week the EU leaders declared that there would be a €1trillion fund put in place to prop up the crumbling Eurozone. As I pointed out at the time, this figure is a fiscal fantasy. They don’t have the money, just like they don’t even have the €440bn in the current (failed) Stability Fund. So, in order to get the cash, they jetted off to China to see if they could get the money there. Looks like the Chinese consider it a bad deal and are quite prepared to leave the European malaise to run its natural collapse. Watch the markets in the days and weeks ahead as the crisis continues despite the pompous proclamations from Brussels.
By David Vance On October 28th, 2011 at 8:01 am
The Euro begging bowl is being hawked over to China.
The head of the eurozone’s bailout fund is beginning attempts to persuade China to invest in a scheme to help rescue member countries facing debt crises. After meeting Chinese leaders, Klaus Regling said there were no formal negotiations and would be no deal now. It is thought China may pay about 70bn euros ($100bn) into the fund, which is expected to be boosted to 1tn euros.
The last sentence is pure EUROfantasy. The “One Trillion” fund does not and will not exist. If one studies the details of the previous €440bn fund, it transpires that there is ACTUALLY only €13bn of which €9.5bn has been disembursed. So, they have managed to obtain the princely sum of €13bn instead of the much boasted about €440bn. And now they are going to more than double it!! Watch the markets tear this falsity apart in the weeks ahead, the Eurocrats WILL be back for another summit which will result in ANOTHER even higher “fund” – it’s always groundhog day in Brussels. Pete Moore is quite right when he points out that they have done nothing to deal with the most fundamental issue – namely governments living within their means. Through the prism of Euro-socialism, that is the one thing that just cannot be visualised.
By David Vance On October 27th, 2011 at 7:26 am
Right, so that’s it settled. Our EU leaders came, they feasted, they conquered…
“European leaders have reached a “three-pronged” agreement described as vital to solve the region’s huge debt crisis.
After marathon talks in Brussels, the leaders said private banks holding Greek debt had accepted a loss of 50%. Banks must also raise more capital to protect them against losses resulting from any future government defaults. The deal is aimed at preventing the crisis spreading to larger eurozone economies like Italy, but the leaders said work still needed to be done. It also approved a mechanism to boost the eurozone’s main bailout fund to 1trillion euros . The framework for the new fund is to be put in place in November. The BBC’s Chris Morris in Brussels says the deal is not as ambitious as some had hoped but as much as could be achieved.
Now then, what could possibly go wrong with this?
1. The 50% loss by the Banks is voluntary. So, there is no guarantee when or even if they will accept that which the glorious leaders have declared. With French banks have massive exposure to Greek debt, what impact will this have on France’s credit-worthiness, precisely?
2. Where will all these Banks raise the additional proposed capital from, exactly and on what terms?
3. Weren’t we all told but a few weeks ago that an increase in the EFSF to €440bn would save the day? So, now that this has been theoritically doubled, all will be well. Except that only a few weeks ago the Eurocrats were theorising that an increase to €2trillion would be necessary.
The real problem here is that all euro-sophistry is designed to stop you realising Greece has effectively defaulted. I laughed at the sight of the Greece PM declaring this was a new era for his country. Didn’t he see the RIOTS that defaced Athens in the past week? I expect a favourable short term market response, then the details will be analysed, and we will be back here again.
By David Vance On October 26th, 2011 at 6:19 pm
Only a Trade Union leader could come out with this garbage, in “The Guardian” of course;
Government ministers rightly acknowledge that the UK’s economic future rests to a major degree on the future of the eurozone. Yet as non-members we have limited ourselves in what we can do about its problems. In truth, there is limited advantage in our autonomy. So, if the eurozone comes through the present crisis, let us not close our minds to the possibility that it could be in the UK’s interest to quit the devaluation road and reconsider membership of the eurozone. Pro-Europeans should have the confidence to challenge the conventional wisdom.
There is challenging conventional wisdom and there is embracing lunacy. This Baron needs to learn the difference!!!!
By David Vance On October 26th, 2011 at 8:40 am
There is an elephant in the Euro-room and nobody seems to want to talk about. There won’t be a deal to save the Euro because there can’t be a deal that actually works!
Efforts by France and Germany to thrash out a rescue deal descended into chaos as a meeting of EU finance ministers scheduled for today was cancelled at the 11th hour because of lack of progress.
More than £18billion was wiped off the value of shares in London in just 20 minutes when EU officials also warned that a separate make-or-break leaders’ summit today in Brussels would also fail to end the crisis.
The current Eurozone is doomed to fail and this will trigger a massive international recession. It can’t be prevented and what we are seeing at the moment is the desperation of the Euro-elite as they increasingly resemble a juggler running out of hands.Their big solution to all this chaos is to create a FISCAL as well as a MONETARY union – in essence to bring into being the United States of Europe. That’s always their solution – more Europe. It’s a pathology rather than a strategy!
However this egotistical hubris is what has helped cause the very problem it now seeks to solve. Expecting the “ClubMed” economies to harmonise with those of Northern Europe is profoundly fiscally flawed. The only way it can be done is to dissolve local National government to the point where it is entirely toothless in which case austerity will be imposed on the citizenship. I suggest that such moves may actually trigger minor revolutions, as we witness on the streets of Athens. Perhaps we could up having a Euro Spring?
No one wants to see the coming chaos but had SOME of us been listened to when we said that the vanity of the Eurocrats would lead to disaster, then this could have been avoided. But political ambition trumped economic sanity and now we see the consequences. The Eurozone is going down – slowly but surely. It’s time to think what has been unthinkable – dissolve the Euro now. If not, the markets will dissolve it.
By David Vance On October 25th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
The thing is that the Eurozone is going to crash and NOTHING, but NOTHING, will stop it;
There has been another hiccup in the eurozone’s plans to announce a final rescue deal in Brussels to try to end the turmoil in the euro area. The Polish presidency of the EU has confirmed to the BBC that key meetings have been postponed. The EU’s 27 finance ministers and the 17-nation Eurogroup will not now meet on Wednesday, although a full emergency heads-of-government summit will happen. This could mean a delay to final announcements on solutions.
This situation is moving slowly out of their control and the central planners are realising that they cannot plan centrally any longer with any credibility.
By David Vance On October 24th, 2011 at 9:45 am
Why would anyone who favours conservative values remain in the Conservative Party? Former Conservative Leader and current Foreign Secretary William Hague sums up all that is nauseating about Cameron’s mob;
William Hague has compared calls by Conservative MPs for a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union to “a piece of graffiti”.
An in-out referendum was not government policy, the foreign secretary said, and “the wrong question at the wrong time”.
Really? Let’s have a think about this. The Eurozone is melting down, the UK has already spent ££billions propping parts of it up, and Hague thinks that it is the “wrong time” to contemplate our relationship with Brussels? Not a day goes by without EU law over-riding UK law, without criminals using the EU HRA to the dismay of most people, and Hague thinks this is the WRONG time to determine our status with regard to the EU? It is precisely the RIGHT time but it is also inconvenient for weasels like Hague. He wants to pretend that if only we remain mute and leave it to wise old coves like himself then we can magically conjure up a looser arrangement with the EU. The trouble here is that even the most cursory examination of the past shows that we are becoming further and further embedded in the EU and despite many pledges to the contrary, the UK continues to lose sovereignty.
The UK has a clear choice. It stays in or it gets out.
The politicians know that the majority of people in the UK are more likely than not to vote “OUT” and that is why a referendum is denied them. We live in a representative democracy where the politicians refuse to represent the will of the people. Another name for that is a benign tyranny and Hague is a typical representative of it. The superficial facade is of a democracy but it is only too obvious that all the major political parties show a loyalty to the EU that contrasts with their betrayal of this United Kingdom. As the EU goes down the toilet, Hague insists we plunge in. He must be round the bend….
By David Vance On October 23rd, 2011 at 5:01 pm
I never cease to be amazed at the hubris that is so characteristic of the Euro elite. Just think about this;
Europe’s leaders are threatening to trigger a formal default on Greek debt and risk a “credit event” if banks refuse to accept losses of up to €140bn (£120bn) on their holdings. Hardline eurozone members, backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), delivered the ultimatum this weekend after an official report found that in a worst-case scenario Greece could need a second bail-out of €450bn – twice the current package and more than the entire €440bn in the eurozone’s rescue fund.
Vittorio Grilli, a senior EU official, travelled to Rome yesterday to present the “take it or leave it” deal to the Institute of International Finance, which is leading the negotiations for the banks. “The only voluntary element for the banks now is to take a 50pc haircut or face a credit event, a default,” said an EU diplomat. The threat marks a dramatic change of stance in Brussels, and follows early warnings that a Greek default would set off a chain reaction that would result in a worse financial crisis than in 2008. Although wary about the markets, they are now thought to believe that a “big bazooka” solution could contain the crisis in Greece.
Let’s sort out this nonsense.
For starters, the notion that those banks with exposure to Greek debt should brace for a 50% haircut is wrong. It should be 100%.
Next, the idea that Greece can in any way be saved and remain in the EU is purely delusional. However this is incompatible with the burning political ambition that drives the EU on so there remains this constant conflict.
Finally, forget the “big bazooka”. There is going to be a Big Bang and it will be the sound of the EU imploding. Once Greece goes, others will follow.