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THE DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB…

By ATWadmin On November 13th, 2006

795151-537852-thumbnail.jpgI think this extract from Mark Steyn’s latest book "America Alone" says it all, and yet it is assured to be ignored by those who plan our future…

"We’re the ones who will change you," the Norwegian imam Mullah Krekar told the Oslo newspaper Dagbladet in 2006. "Just look at the development within Europe, where the number of Muslims is expanding like mosquitoes. Every Western woman in the EU is producing an average of 1.4 children. Every Muslim woman in the same countries is producing 3.5 children." As he summed it up: "Our way of thinking will prove more powerful than yours."

 

And that is the disconcerting demographic destiny is one that no European Government wishes to confront. It’s just too uncomfortable for them since the consequences are so severe. Whilst indigenous European populations decline and fall way below the replacement level, Islam’s children multiply, confident that the future belongs to them as their decaying host nations gradually submit to their wishes.

Appeasement is the distilled essence of the multicult Euroweenies creed, combined with a fetish for Welfare that cannot be afforded. The year of reckoning draws closer even as the ageing Europeans mostly close their eyes, lie back, and think of Islam….

21 Responses to “THE DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB…”

  1. David,

    European birth rates is one of my favorite topics. One point that I think is under-appreciated is that there may come a time in the not-too-distant future when young Muslims say, "No, we won’t pay for your comfortable pensions and other welfare state benefits". For many Europeans, there is no funded pension. It’s simply paid for out of the current tax take. That’s a system built on the faith that the next generation will be as keen to pay for my retirement as I am to pay for the previous generation’s.
    http://irisheagle.blogspot.com/2005/11/pensions-crisis-in-france.html

    Islam’s not to blame for this mess. W. Europe is committing suicide (I’m sure there must be a word for a continent’s population deciding to extinguish itself). Muslims are simply filling a void.

  2. Eagle,

    You are perfectly right in what you say. I agree that Europe has become lethargic, and I put it down to the slow death of Christianity across the continent.

  3. I think we’ve been here before David, and not so long ago, when Unionists were informed (right from the inception of NI) that we would soon be outbred by Roman Catholics. A much smaller scenario than the Islam one admittedly, but it clearly hasn’t happened and is unlikely to in the forseeable future.

    There are myriad possible factors for future reference regarding the ‘great Muslim expansion’ and of course the whole argument precludes that Europe and indeed the global population will continue to expand unchecked.

    We have endless possibilities for population decimation — global warming effects, natural catastrophes, wars, nuclear strikes and/or accidents, disease, avian flu, Aids, widespread crop failure and of course (as it’s religion we’re discussing here) good old divine intervention.

    The planet’s human population is expanding at the rate of one billion a decade — it took until the 1930s to reach it’s FIRST billion, and the current growth level is clearly unsustainable. I may be wrong, but I suspect that 50 years or less down the line, we’ll have more things to worry about than the encroachment of a 1300 year old religion.

    It’s also fair to point out that prior to 9/11, the Muslim ‘threat’ was barely mentioned. Suddenly the whole thing has gone into overdrive. Mass hysteria anyone?

  4. HA

    The question is not the expansion of the human population but why the west has opted for decline.

    This is not about possibilities. It is about what is happening. If there are 100 Mohammads born this year and 10 Charlies then in 20 years time the ratios will be the same.

    Of course a Muslim majority will mean a very different Europe.

    The question for Secularists like yourself is was it worth overturning the wisdom of the generations for such a brief interlude.

  5. ‘This is not about possibilities. It is about what is happening.’

    Henry, a mere 20 years ago, the west was in fear and trembling of Communism and the Soviet super-power,
    Aids was predicted to decimate Europe within a generation and a panic was started about the millenium bug. Due to unforseen circumstances, none of these bogey men materialised, but the amount of panic and column inches they created was easily as awesome as the Islamic threat today.

    Islam has had 1300 years to outbreed the west and your supposition is that everything will remain equal for next 20 years — high Muslim birth rate, low European birth rate, no population reducing scenario as suggested in my previous post and no notice taken of the burgeoning Chinese and Indian civilisations.

    The Muslim Europe is one possible future but by no means a certain one.

    ‘The question for Secularists like yourself is was it worth overturning the wisdom of the generations for such a brief interlude.’

    A valid question Henry and one which I honestly can’t answer. Religious belief has proved surprisingly impervious to scientific progress, the continuing no-show of promised prophets and deities and to basic common sense, so the best secularists can hope for is to keep the religious sphere of influence out of the public domain.

    The idealist aim of a secular democracy is constantly threatened not only by the resuregence of far right and far left political ideals, but also the persistence of fundamentalist religion in all it’s forms.
    From my secularist viewpoint, what extreme politics and extreme religion jointly represent is a need to control through force and tyranny. The duty of us all is to turn back that tide at every opportunity.

  6. everything will remain equal for next 20 years

    Great point and im glad to read this as i dont believe any of the Mark Steyn hyperbolic hysteria all that much. Of course governments will work out welfare in its current form wont be sustainable. Of course they will change. It doesnt take into account the huge swathes of people from CEE moving about within the EU many of whom are devout catholics like the Polish and given to large families. He is milking the post 9/11 era somewhat.

  7. H94 posted:

    "The question for Secularists like yourself is was it worth overturning the wisdom of the generations for such a brief interlude."

    The wisdom of the generations, as you choose to call it, included at various times belief in a flat earth, belief that the sun rotated the earth, fire as a god, the sun as a god, the moon as a god, thunder as a god, women as inferior creatures to men, witches, hobgoblins, fairies, and of course creationism which is common to the narrative of all the major religions of the world.

    Presumably you would prefer to see Darwin’s ideas proscribed and his writings banned, so that "the wisdom of the ages" could be reasserted?

  8. I agree with Alison and I also think it is too simplistic to put childbirth rates down to religous identity or lack of. The biggest birthrate in Britain amongst the white population is amongst the lower level unemployed or unskilled and very secular working class whereas strictly Roman catholic Italy has for almost a generation now had the lowest birthrates in the Western world.

    I would predict that the next generations of Muslims who were born and have lived all their lives in the UK will continue the general trend in Western countries and have fewer children than their parents and ultimately they will become more and more secular too. We’ll be waiting a long time for the crescent to rise over the west.

  9. ‘Presumably you would prefer to see Darwin’s ideas proscribed and his writings banned, so that "the wisdom of the ages" could be reasserted?’

    Good points Peter, but something persists in the human condition that refuses to let go of many of the archaic beliefs of our ancestors.
    This perhaps stems from the insecurity of existence, the fear of the unknown and the readiness of organised religion to indoctrinate, culturise and terrify the extremely young.

    A pertinent question is whether humanity, as a supposedly rational species with the ability to reason and ask why, are actually worse off than the majority of the animal kingdom who appear to live in blissful ignorance.

  10. HA,

    China’s civilization may be "burgeoning", I don’t know, but the Chinese are not having children like they used to. Their birth rate is collapsing and is, in fact, lower than Ireland’s & America’s now. India is another story.

    I like your point about the fall of the Soviet Empire because that’s a great comparison. The USSR collapsed and we in the west never saw it coming. However, it seems pretty clear to me that a lot of people in E. Europe believed it was inevitable or you’d never have had Solidarity, etc. They knew the whole structure was rotten on the inside and just needed time before it fell apart. The timing may not have been known, but the inevitability was.

    So, here we are in W. Europe commenting on what is happening in W. Europe. The big changes that David has highlighted are there, obvious to us all. We can debate what they mean, but they’re not happening behind an iron curtain.

  11. Colm

    Your point about the integration of European Muslims and the eventual fall-off in their birth rates is a good one. I think that’s entirely possible. However, it doesn’t take into account further immigration. In order to sustain the state pensions and other state supports that Europe currently guarantees its citizens, Europe needs immigrants – millions of them. And, I believe most of them will be Muslims. So, although the longer resident Muslim populations may adopt European norms in terms of birth rates, the fact that you’ll have a constant influx of more Muslims will mean that the birth rate among Muslims will remain higher for quite a while.

  12. I believe that Europe will grow increasingly Muslim. In fact, I’m certain of that. However, what’s much less certain in my mind is whether this entails any real risk to Europe’s free and democratic society. I don’t necessarily think so. Muslims have to be as free to express their wishes at the ballot box as any other groups of people. That may mean – again this is very speculative – that some aspects of social, foreign and economic policies will be affected. Alliances may be realigned, trade patterns may be somewhat refigured and some social policies that are considered "progressive" could be overturned. If this happens through the democratic process, I can’t see how anyone can complain. And, I expect this to be a very gradual happening, not revolutionary.

    However, if Muslims are not integrated into W. European society, then it will be revolutionary.

  13. ‘if Muslims are not integrated into W. European society’

    You mean western. This problem is NOT limited to Europe – in a global economy people move and breed everywhere. Whilst taking into account increased immigration as you point out to Colm you also need to consider the effects of increased CEE immigration, by far the largest group moving around as the moment.

    It may have little to do with religion as Colm says, though nos of kids per family is still cultural, but the impact of immigration from all over needs to to be taken into consideration. Steyns argument is way too limited.

  14. Peter

    "Presumably you would prefer to see Darwin’s ideas proscribed and his writings banned, so that "the wisdom of the ages" could be reasserted?"

    Of course I wouldn’t. But I would ask you to consider what kind of society would ban Darwin and to be aware that Europe may be on the road to that.

  15. ‘Good points Peter, but something persists in the human condition that refuses to let go of many of the archaic beliefs of our ancestors’

    It boils down to mans inability to comprehend his own immortality. Unlike the animal kingdom we have the ability to reason and wonder. That ability is what foxes us. If it isnt religion providing for this inherent spiritual need to look for something or someone else to make sense of ourselves then it will be a political system or something else. Get rid of religion all you secularists and watch something else fill the void and cause the wars. Its inherent.

  16. "It doesnt take into account the huge swathes of people from CEE moving about within the EU many of whom are devout catholics like the Polish and given to large families.

    Whilst taking into account increased immigration as you point out to Colm you also need to consider the effects of increased CEE immigration, by far the largest group moving around as the moment."

    I’m talking about Europe in its entirety. Talking about Poles moving to Britain or Ireland is akin to talking about people from Massachusetts moving to Texas or whatever. That’s an internal population shift, but doesn’t change the demographics of the EU.

    Poles have the highest birth rate in E. Europe. And, you know what? It’s way below Britain’s or Ireland’s or France’s. Yup, their Catholicism is a non-issue. There may be a lot of large families in Poland – I don’t know – but there aren’t many children.

    In fact, E. Europe in general has a lower birth rate than W. Europe. Russia’s (outside the EU, I know) problem is particularly acute, but name an E. European country and the story’s not much different.

  17. Alison,

    Take a look at those E. European countries outside the EU right now. Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Armenia and then look at their Islamic neighbors: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, etc. The Christian countries have low birth rates, high death rates & negative migration. That’s a combination that spells death for those nations.

    The Islamic nations are overflowing with people and eventually those populations are going to seek the emptied lands to their north and west. It’s inevitable. Eventually those places will be Islamic regions or nations and what we know as "Europe" will be (a) more Islamic and (b) centered at a more western point.

    One point I will accept is that if W. Europe opens its doors to the non-Islamic populations of E. Europe then, yes, W. Europe can forestall Islamicization. That is, Europe could just concede large areas of territory to those Muslim nations that have fast-growing populations.

  18. ‘Get rid of religion all you secularists and watch something else fill the void and cause the wars. Its inherent.’

    Excellent post Alison. Whilst the question of immortality remains (and it almost certainly will), the need for a ‘reason’, a ‘meaning of life’ will linger on.

    The fact that this need forms itself into tribalist religion is perhaps one of the greatest anomalies of the supposedly intelligent human condition.
    The rest of the animal kingdom are happy to fight over territory, food, family and breeding opportunities, but as far as we’re aware, conflict over the nature of the supernatural is a singularly human trait, and one which may ultimately destroy us.

    Many secularists despair at this woeful state of affairs, but as you point out, if religious belief disappeared tomorrow morning, we’d be fighting over the style of our shoes by tea-time. It’s in the nature of humanity (and particularly the male), to seek conflict, again an undeniably animalistic trait.

    The solution is either to go with the flow and blindly accept the illogical or attempt to improve the human condition through acquired knowledge.

  19. ‘That’s an internal population shift, but doesn’t change the demographics of the EU’

    What do you mean? Its immigration whichever way you try to cut it! People moving into another country is immigration..simply because its within the EU doesnt then makes it impact on society any less of an issue whether you view that positively or negatively it has a bearing and will alter the fabric and make up of society. Those Poles with little or no prospects arrive in Britain with greater prospects and in turn will have families if they settle simnply because unlike in Poland they can afford to!

  20. Alison posted:
    "It boils down to mans inability to comprehend his own immortality."

    Substitute "man’s inability to accept his own insignificance in the cosmos" and I’d agree. If life on earth is represented by the Eiffel Tower, man’s existence is represented by a coat of paint on the top.

  21. "What do you mean? Its immigration whichever way you try to cut it! People moving into another country is immigration..simply because its within the EU doesnt then makes it impact on society any less of an issue whether you view that positively or negatively it has a bearing and will alter the fabric and make up of society."

    The point of the post was about Europe generally. That some regions of Europe are attracting people from other regions doesn’t change Europe’s overall population change.