When Johnny Comes Marching Home
By Mahons On June 21st, 2011The President will be making some vague announcement as to the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan, target date unknown, but probably in 2012. Why wait? A substantial number of Afghans have demonstrated what can only be described as an unwillingness to enter into the 17th Century, let alone the 21st. Its government is saturated with ungrateful kleptocrats who would sell their mother for a bowl of dirty rice. Almost a decade of efforts to rebuild, reform and revitalize has resulted in so many lives lost that we’ve become numb to the news. Typical headline – “15 killed, Taliban claims 8 were civilians, Allied Forces say less than that.” And we move on and on and on with our lives while we tread water in the desert.
I’m no fan of the Taliban and if they had a convention and accidently all blew themselves to bits I’d cheer with the rest of the civlized world. They are a rotten bunch, as are their Al Q cronies, as evidenced by the recent story of abducting a 9 year old girl to use as a human bomb. But exactly how long are we to stay there? Another year, ten, fifty? How about five more minutes. The imperative for going in was, in my opinion, just and reasonable. The imperative for leaving is also just and reasonable.
We don’t have a good partner in Afghanistan. We don’t have a good partner in Pakistan.
Cold, sad decisions must be made accordingly.
The Russians were man enough to admit they couldn’t win in Afghanistan, and quit before they were branded as total losers. The conflict with Russia had a direct influence of the fall of the USSR, and has a similar potential to do the same to the USA.
Perhaps NATO and America should do the same! i.e. be man enought to admit they can’t win ‘em all!
Afghanistan 3, The Rest 0. is not quite the scoreline anyone envisaged – even as long a go as 1839.
Such terminology is unwise.
We could easily ” win ” – if we used every military tool at our disposal. We choose not to do so.
And Afghanistan is never going to be close to the body blow to the US as it was to the USSR.
That being said, we do not have unlimited treasure and we do not have unlimited troops to spend for a most unworthy ally.
>>A substantial number of Afghans have demonstrated what can only be described as an unwillingness to enter into the 17th Century,<<
I thought that's the reason you went there in the first place.
Otherwise, you know that wise old Asian saying: "If you break it, it's yours".
The local economy, such as it was, has been destroyed by the war. As a result of the collapse and the removal of law enforcement, opium/heroin production has apparently soared to record, well, highs.
So when the troops arrive home they won't have long to wait before they see the price of heroin on their streets plummet as a result of their military service overseas.
But didn't all this happen before?
Then there's the buoyant Taleban and an undefeated AQ. The Karzai govt will fall, but what will replace it will almost certainly be much worse.
Sad to say, wars started not in a mood of sobriety but to shouts of “Yee Haw, let’s go kick some AAS” – and who here didn’t join in the refrain – have a habit of kicking back in the ass in a way that you don’t forget too easily.
The reason we went there in the first place is because the Afghanistan regime gave sanctuary to those who attacked us on 9/11. They were offered the chance to turn AQ over, and declined to do so.
That’s why there was a war.
Sanctuary and bases that operated pretty much in the open.
Phantom , accord to the US reports following 9/11 ,the majority of the terrorists were Saudi Arabian . Logically it would have made sense to invade Saudi , at leasts you would have gained control of their oil ( lots of oil ) , I wonder why they did not do that ?
Noel Cunningham -
The local economy is flourishing, since much of it is based on opium production and US soldiers guard crops.
I was agnostic about Afghanistan and Iraq, so I didn’t join in that refrain. My hope was that our governments simply didn’t cock it up.
Ah well.
Phantom -
The Taliban said they would turn over their AQ guests but gave the federal government the opportunity to present evidence of their guilt first. There was none forthcoming.
Sorry we didn’t fall for the stalling tactic.
Correct.
This is a part of the world where good solutions are seemingly impossible
The one good thing that the Taliban did in the late nineties is that they effectively suppressed opium production – so Pete’s point here is painfully spot on.
The Saudis were not harboring AQ.
Correct again.
Correct
They were cooperative. They revoked OBL’s citizenship
Phantom -
Stalling tactic or not, no-one in their right mind would simply turn someone over the the federal government without reasonable evidence of guilt.
Yeah, sure.
Phantom,
You know as well as anyone that ‘using every tool’ would result in a global conflagration, which would not end well for anyone.
America will have to learn restraint, and not dive into these dodgy situations ‘just because they can’, – it isn’t as though they really need the income from the armaments industry is it?
Name a ‘war’ since WWII that the West can say has been won in conclusive fashion? – there isn’t one! – all have ended in a messy, inconclusive disaster for all involved, and have made the world a far more dangerous place than ever before.
No other nation has had such global power, – and to see it wasted in such a bullying, desultory fashion is to no-ones credit.
p.s. Wasn’t Roosevelt a Democrat?
See response to Pete’s silly comment.
Even some of the wars that were not 100% wins still staved off a much worse outcome for all concerned – see prosperous S Korea for proof of that.
S. Korea? – and still under the protection of Big Brother! – you could almost call it a ‘colony of the US’…:-)
As I recall that was one of NATO’s earlier
fiasco’sinterventionsThis was one area were Communist aggression was checked.
It was a just war, and S Korea is now a free and prosperous country.
They’re richer than you.
Ernest – A UN not a NATO intervention, and it was successful in repelling the North Koreans, as South Koreans live a vastly better life than their northern counterparts.
Phantom,
Well of course they are, they are not saddled with all those nasty defence costs that both the UK and the US are, – and which, incidentally, are killing both of our economies.
Do they pay the US for protection? – of course not, similarly with Germany, relying on others to pick up the costs involved in their defence.
That you see communist aggression as only ‘being checked’, rather than beaten, is quite telling, – a Freudian slip perhaps? – especially as China, – that ‘big bad red,’ is about overtake the USA in many rspects, doing so many capitalist things such as manufacturing, a tad better than you.
Mahons,
Quite correct ’twas the UN made me do it!’ – shame on me, – and I was there!
( Oh!the shame of it!
It is not a Freudian slip- it is a precise statement, from a base of knowledge.
South Korea’s defense budget is 2.9% of their GDP – a higher percentage than the UK’s 2.7%
Holding the line against the Communist Monarchy / Arms Proliferator of North Korea is everyone’s job, and it is a burden that we willingly share with a country that has been an ally in word and deed for a half century.
The S Korea budget is really understated, since they have a 21 year mandatory military service for all males, with no opt out for conscientious objectors
They are a serious fighting force – they are well aware of the threat they face.
Ernest – not to worry, I had thought you served in the Malayan Emergency (which was pretty good counter-insurgency) rather than Korea, but I am probably mixed up in that regard. Either way, what times.
>>The one good thing that the Taliban did in the late nineties is that they effectively suppressed opium production <<
That's a myth. Opium production in Afghanistan was high through the Taliban era and even rose significantly towards the end of it. The T didn't control all the country, and even where it did its suppression of production was patchy.
Production has, however, greatly increased in the years since Bush's invasion.
http://www.historycommons.org/events-images/671_opium_production_chart2050081722-9528.jpg
Your graph completely proves my point!
Look what the bar chart shows for 2001!
And it was in mid 2001 that you saw reports that opium production had effectively been stopped.
Graph isn’t updated. Current production is now over 10,000 tonnes p.a. according to the UN.
See this
There are many other proofs of this – the one good thing the Taliban ever did.
“They are a serious fighting force”
I suppose miracles do happen! but very doubtful.
You say they spend a larger percentage on defence than the UK does, Do they have nuclear subs, aircraft carriers etc, etc, – or perhaps their budget is all spent on wages for all that canon fodder, – for 21 years? sort of a State welfare system.
“It was a just war, and S Korea is now a free and prosperous country.
They’re richer than you.”
I don’t think you’re correct about South Korea being richer than the UK even using purchasing parity figures.
Phantom -
I thought you opposed the war on drugs and favoured decriminalisation?
Hee hee
You don’t think there was reasonable evidence of Al Qaeda’s guilt?
I do – but this only makes sense as part of a broad international consensus. Otherwise, it can’t work. I’m have no sympathy for drugs dealers.
The problem with withdrawal is that when Afghanistan was left to its own devices before it became a base from which to launch attacks against the world.
It’s an unpleasant war but I don’t think simply leaving is a viable option.