THIS WILL NOT END WELL…
By David Vance On April 27th, 2012Seconds out….France vs Germany…
“It is “not for Germany to decide for the rest of Europe”, said Francois Hollande, the frontrunner to replace Nicolas Sarkozy as French president. If elected, Mr Hollande says that he will not pass the fiscal austerity pact agreed by the leaders of 25 European nations, unless it contains measures to spur on growth. His stance puts him on a collision course with Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. She hit back at the French Socialist candidate’s plans, warning the deal is “not open to new negotiations”.
Hollande represents an existential threat to the EU….France fighting Germany cannot end well, so for that reason I am hoping he wins. Furthermore, when he talks about “growth” like all good socialists he means spending! So his “solution” is more of what caused the problem. That’s the kind of genius that Socialism provides.
It never ‘ends well’ .. when the few, try to control the many, it will always end in tears.
Will, the Americans, come to the assistance of Europe once again?
Of course Merkel is hoping against hope that Sarkozy wins. The French know this and that will be enought to swing many votes to Hollande.
I think the French will relish the chance to give Germany a bloody nose. No matter how loudly France barks, everyone knows that it is Germany who has the teeth..
The Frogs will be soon become desperate to get rid of Hollande if he keeps his promises to greatly increase spending. One whiff of that and interest rates will increase sharply, for government and everyone else.
Given their propensity to strike and burn sheep, it could become a very interesting country before long.
One whiff of that and interest rates will increase sharply, for government and everyone else.
Maybe, but Spain has embraced austerity big style and teh markets are scourging it for
permanent recession and 25% unemploymentlack of growth. If France remains in recession, it will suffer the same fate.Peter -
That’s because no-one believes Spain can repay its debts. There’s a chance that France can continue to do so, but it has no margin to increase spending and debt.
Pete
Spain’s debt level as a % of GDP is less than France. But Spain is in permanent recession which drives its debt levels higher despite pretty savage spending cuts. Obviously it needs to deafult (do a Greece) and offer 40% at most. And leave the Euro. That will lead to even deeper recession (oil prices will double at least) but there would be hope for the future, unlike now. Spain could export solar-generated electricity to the rest of Europe, as could Greece, Italy and Portugal.
I meant to post a link to sovereign debt levels here
Exporting solar electricity will create some money but damned few jobs.
Their tourist economy I understand broke records last year – but the economy overall was still crushed.
There was an Ireland / US Sunbelt like over reliance on construction, and that’s not so easily fixed. Because the Spanish don’t need more houses.
The breezy bromides of right and left won’t fix this. Spain could be crushed for a long time, sad to say.
Peter -
Spain, say, re-adopting the Peseta would cause big problems, but to avoid it would be like avoiding a necessary operation because of the problems that might cause. You just have to get on with it.
Yes, the currency would be weak, but it’s the only way Spain can price itself back into markets and attract investment. At the moment it’s just a slow death. Things can turn around quickly, as we see in Iceland and as happened in the US in 1920/21, but you have to let markets work and adjust.
Pete
Of course. And as soon as one canary flies the cage, be sure that others will follow.
“Given their propensity to strike and burn sheep, it could become a very interesting country before long.”
Pete,
It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good…
http://www.mustardshopnorwich.co.uk/colmans-classic-mint-sauce-250ml-pid30.html
Fancy a trip to France??
Phantom
Think of solar power for southern Europe as the equivalent of oil for the middle east and gas for Russia. Not a massive employer but a massive boost for the nation’s economy, which will generate jobs in other sectors.
Those panels will mutilate the land.
But maybe it must be done.
Whatever happened to this guy?
http://newsguru.newsvine.com/_news/2008/06/04/1538977-florida-man-creates-a-car-that-runs-on-tap-water-100-miles-per-ounce
http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2012/03/even_solar_power_has_its_detra.html
From a New Jersey neighbor of a solar facility
In practice, the Yardville-Allentown Road resident is less than thrilled about living next to 34 acres of wall-to-wall metal and glass, panels that are fenced in and shielded by a few half-dead pines.
“The aesthetics are horrible,” he said. “It looks like a prison fence around my yard. I don’t know who thinks this looks good, but they’re wrong.”
I’d rather live next to one of these than a coal or nuke plant, but that still doesn’t mean that they’re anything to look forward to.
I hope that we can develop superefficient technologies so we don’t need to use as much electricity.
Phantom
Most of the land for the solar farms is either desert or semi-desert. No agricultural land will be lost.
This is also an opportunity for North African states on the Medeterranean coast, especially Morroco and Tunisia. Anything that frees Europe from dependence on
PutinRussian gas will be welcome, as soon as the price is right.Agit8ed -
Why France? You can’t beat a dollop of Colmans on a juicy slab of Longhorn.
By the way, do you ever go by Thetford and Elveden? Let me know if you do. I can point you to a cracking farm shop. It’s full of great stuff.
Phantom, ditch the solar panels. They’re not financially feasible or hooked up to the current monopolized grid.
Does this mean I should shuck my never-ending search for bargain south american retirement opportunities and refocus my search on affordable European real estate bargains?
Spanish real estate os down 22 to 29 pct from the peak
I would have thought it would be down more
I’d think that Spain is more politically secure than some of Latin America. But further away from home.
I like Panama. Fairly stable political climate, close to home and decent real estate bargains.
Do you ever think of leaving, Phantom?
I love other lands but would not imagine leaving this country permanently.
I spent a few days in Panama once on the way to Argentina. Neat place from what I saw