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LABOUR’S IN BIG TROUBLE

By Pete Moore On April 20th, 2017

Even bigger trouble than they fear.

The Daily Mirror’s Paul Routledge reports from Wakefield in West Yorkshire. That’s a Labour tabloid, he’s a hardcore Labour journalist, and Wakefield has been Labour since 1932, the kind of place which votes for the proverbial donkey with a red rosette. What does he find?

In a Labour heartland I can find hardly anyone who wants to vote for them

“I talked to people in the market, along Cathedral Walk, and no one had a good word to say about Jezza. Most expressed respect, admiration even, for Theresa May […]

Coming up Cathedral Walk, lifelong Labour voters John and Carole Foster, both 66, both confirmed they are switching to the Tories.

“I think it’s very good we’re having an election,” said Carole.

“I have been Labour all my life, but I’ll be voting Tory. I think Theresa May is brilliant. Labour is in a mess.”

The whole piece is like that. It’s less reportage and more a cry of despair. YouGov has just published a poll which puts the Tories on 48% and Labour on 24%. That’s a greater difference than in the 1983 General Election, which is regarded as a Tory landslide. It’s a much greater difference than in 1997, which is regarded as a Labour landslide.

Bear in mind that polls historically overrate Labour. Actual Labour votes usually come in below expectations.

There’s something else. This is a Brexit election. Nothing can change that. The Tories are the party of Brexit. They’ve put themselves on the side of the 52%. The LibDems have positioned themselves as the party of Remain. They’re all out to snap up the 48% vote. Labour is squeezed in the middle, muddled, incoherent and without anything to say about it.

I’m sensing now that Brexiteers and Ukippers will break Tory, Remainers will happily vote LibDem, and the polls aren’t fully showing this. The talking heads are saying that any Labour MP with a majority of 5000 is vulnerable. I put it higher than that, maybe even 10,000. We know that the Tories will win comfortably on 8th June, but it’s looking even worse than Labour fears.

30 Responses to “LABOUR’S IN BIG TROUBLE”

  1. Lets hope so. But a weeks a long time in Politics. Seven weeks is longer still. I can think of at least a couple of scenarios which potentially could swing it the other way and in a hurry too.

    eg Korean War – UK involvement/ Corby being anti war. NHS disaster – Corby milking it for all it’s worth.
    Then we might also get some behind the scenes EU influence / dirty tricks being exerted.
    Uncertain times imo.

  2. Hmm, there’s nothing worse than a political party that doesn’t know what it stands for. Labour need to sort themselves out fast. They are no longer seen as the party of the working man and, as you say Pete, they are no longer even the party of the pro-Europe liberals. So what are they? Who do they represent?

    It’s ironic that the Europe question divided the Tories for decades but it is actually Labour that it might ultimately destroy.

  3. Like moths to a flame in order to get power Labour ditched a lot of the stuff that made it and went for the middle-ground. In doing so the alienated a lot of their supporters and, drawing the EU ever closer to their breast totally betrayed their core support thinking that they will ALWAYS vote Labour. Scotland in the last election was a portent of might well become, a total destruction and falling of a political giant of a party.

    And let us remind ourselves, apart from the Lib Dems no other party is in a good position.

  4. Mark B

    Without getting too into the weeds, what is the ” middle ground ” that you speak of

    And a very large number of UK voters wanted to remain. If the Conservatives wanted to remain and if Labour is not supposed to be pro EU, wouldn’t that leave no party for the pro EU British voter to support?

  5. If the Conservatives wanted to remain leave and if Labour is not supposed to be pro EU, wouldn’t that leave no party for the pro EU British voter to support?

  6. Phantom –

    The LibDems are 100% pro-EU.

  7. Pete,

    Yes. And what was once a curse might help the Lib Dems greatly this election if they can properly tap into constituencies where there is a strong anti-Brexit sentiment.

  8. Phantom

    The ‘middle-way’ goes beyond the EU. It is a range of policies that appeal to the maximum amount of voters. Trouble is, it promises much but delivers little. That is the problem with representative democracy. Once they are in power they can do what the hell they like and you cannot vote them out. It is why I like direct democracy – power to the people 24/7, not every 4-5 years.

  9. Where’s the white towel? The election period hasn’t started yet and already someone needs to save Labour from further punishment.

    We’ve heard of car-crash interviews. I’ve just heard an asteroid-impact interview (Radio 4’s PM programme) with Corbyn loyalist Dawn Butler MP. Think Diane Abbott’s younger and even thicker sister. She actually said that “this election is Theresa May trying to rig democracy in our country.” Listen:

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/dawn-butler-may-trying-to-rig-democracy-by-holding-election/

    The Tories don’t need to campaign. They can go away and turn up on 8th June. The Corbyn camp does the Tory job better than the Tories do it, with every media contact.

  10. In 10 years time when the labour voters are skint on their arse again
    (as the tories will make themselves nice and comfy and destroy all and every public services)
    then we’ll have another labour gov’t,

    For labour voters to put their trust in the tories is an example of Brexit fear-mongering at work .. good job you PeteM , you nutted them off big time ..
    They been played .. and I don’t usually say the following but
    them Nordies are thick as posts … they deserve zero hours, rising costs .. sad to say
    never vote Tory, just go watch the ken loach movie ” I daniel blake” – learn sumthing !

  11. In 10 years time when the labour voters are skint on their arse again

    Ever been up north, jude? Labour voters are always skint and on their arses.

  12. We’ve heard of car-crash interviews. I’ve just heard an asteroid-impact interview (Radio 4’s PM programme) with Corbyn loyalist Dawn Butler MP. Think Diane Abbott’s younger and even thicker sister. She actually said that “this election is Theresa May trying to rig democracy in our country.” Listen:

    Dawn Butler is, believe it or not as you say, even thicker than Abbot. Or Lammy.

    I tried to listen her car crash interview, I was actually cringing for her.

    Labour are, and will remain an irrelevance while they have morons like these as MP’s.

    Lammy on Mastermind (who got almost every question wrong)

    “Q: who succeeded Henry the VIII

    Lammy, Henry VII”

    He actually said that.

    Dianne Abbot.

    “Chairman Mao, done more good than harm”

    Steptoe Corbyn has got his work cut out alright, he is a politician, not a magician.

  13. PeteM
    there used to be a international solidarityy on the Left which cut across boundaries of race, creed, color ..that was part of the glue that held the centre .. that’s all gone now ,
    I believe that’s a mistake , as I can’t see the New Nationalism doing any favours for working class people .. if you’re poor, old , disabled you’ve had it in Theresa May’s new Order .. same as it ever was .. except like the poor or black southerners in USA , they vote for their white masters , who give themselves tax breaks whilst saying “you lot worker harder” .
    Stockholm syndrome

  14. Harri –

    That’s what you get when you select candidates by diversity box-ticking and all-wimmin shortlists. Butler and Lammy are too thick to work on the checkout at Tesco.

    jude would vote for them.

  15. if you’re poor, old , disabled you’ve had it in Theresa May’s new Order ..

    God help us all if Corbyn, and his rag tag bunch of trots ever had to make an executive decision, everyone’s had it.

  16. http://www.itv.com/news/border/2017-04-20/farron-welcomes-challenge-of-fish-finger/

    Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has said he “welcomes the challenge” posed by ‘Mr Fish Finger’, who has pledged to stand against him in the General Election.

    Farron is affronted that the Prime Minister won’t debate him.

  17. Petem I wouldn’t vote for them
    My kinda peeps are/were John Smith, Blair, ( prior to Iraq ) Mo Mowlan, Chris Bryant, Tristram Hunt, Ben Bradshaw, Sadiq Khan, Chukka Ammuna, Lucian Berger and Tony Benn
    That’d make a great cabinet right there 🙂

  18. Harri, I’m not in favour of the current labour front bench or leader , Corbyn might make a good general sec of a Trades Union or similiar … hope Peter Kyle still wins his seat where I live, I think he will despite the polls ..

  19. That’d make a great cabinet right there

    Meetings held on the Titanic, I hope. It seems that jude’s ideal Cabinet minister is a corrupt, mentally ill, homosexual, posh, Islamist, race-baiting Jewish Marxist with a Scottish accent.

    To be fair, Labour’s had worse.

  20. more or less peteM 🙂 must havea decent set of swinger if male .. like Colm
    but … still prefer mine to you murderous villains Assad + Putin.

    Throw a few names in the ring yourself, current or former MP’s
    you can be sure I’ll provided the OTT caricatures .. ahh go on

  21. jude –

    There are only four necessary offices. Anything else is communistic excess:

    Prime Minister – Enoch Powell

    Chancellor of the Exchequer – Ron Paul (honorary Briton for the gig)

    Home Secretary – Oswald Mosley

    Foreign Secretary – the Duke of Edinburgh

  22. wow we agree on Ron Paul 😉
    dunno if he’ll work well with 3 fascists though ?

  23. This election will be as bad for Labour as 1983, maybe worse. But Corbyn will try to stay as leader until the party conference in September in order to get the rules changed, so that a fellow leftie will have a good chance of succeeding him. There will be no honourable resignation.

  24. 58,000 under-25s have registered to vote in two days. That’s not good news for the Tories.

  25. Cameron rebuilt the Tory party, made it electable , it cost them the gay marriage bill
    which is now seen as normal ( though there was a wee fight there ) and backing the NHS.
    Though Hunt, is that the right spelling? is a disaster …
    Tories were always split on Europe , certainly the election will heal that permanently, what with the Brexit ref: there’s no stopping them .. they’ll gallop home ( the bstrds ) .. hahaha

  26. dunno if he’ll work well with 3 fascists though ?

    Three patriots jude, patriots. Well, two at least. The Duke of Edinburgh might be a bit fascistic, but that’s all good too.

  27. Don’t write off UKIP yet.
    Clacton Kippers are cock-a-hoop tonight.
    They almost had their wildest fantasy coming true, of the Blessed Saint Nigel standing in town.
    But as we know, the troublesome Tory turncoat dirty Douglas Carswell has been chased out of town by that Bad Boy of Brexit Arron Banks.
    The multi-millionaire insurance tycoon already has his mates drafting up plans for economic regeneration as part of his campaign to Make Clacton Great Again.
    Now, he could be the candidate, or UKIP could pic a solid local councillor with a sound record of service. The Kippers on Tendring Council have given the ruling Tories a run for their money on issues like Housing. Their campaigning in the county elections is going well with the promise of gains, even slaying the sole surviving Labour man, former MP Ivan Henderson.
    And to cap it off, in this most Eurosceptic of all the towns, the tories look set to pick a Remoaner. Thats what their two candidates to date are, the pro-EU Giles Watling and Neil Stock!
    Elsewhere in Essex, Tim Aker in Thurrock looks set to capitalise over an unpopular Thames crossing. And with Labour support sinking faster than UKIP’s, we may well a few gains in once safe Labour seats thanks to the extremism and nuttiness of Jeremy Corbyn.

  28. peteM we’re going to have to lay out terms and conditions one day on our respective definitions of patriots ..
    it may well be as complex as what is a terrorist ..
    ok opening accommodating line: yes there are patriots on the Right
    do you at least accept that a patriot can be on the Left e.g Tony Benn
    or are communist principles an automatic disqualification from being a patriot?

    would you accept that in the spanish civil war there were patriots on both sides?
    but they just had opposing visions of how they wanted their country to be ruled
    and by whom.
    see how close we are , before salvos, gambits, shots across the bows etc.

    will you engage.. put you case forward , as it would appear from your choices
    of oswald and Enoch P, that only ultra-right are, or can be patriots
    lets examine patriotism under the microscope shall we ?

  29. Billy Bragg

  30. 58,000 under-25s have registered to vote in two days. That’s not good news for the Tories.

    Glastonbury holds 100,000.

    When is that on?.

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