web analytics

IT’S AS IF THERE’S SOME KIND OF BORDER

By Pete Moore On March 1st, 2019

Yesterday, two British fisherman had their boats impounded by the Irish Navy after “alleged breaches of fishing regulations”.

It follows the collapse of a gentleman’s agreement allowing vessels from NI and the Republic reciprocal access to each other’s inshore waters …

At present, Northern Ireland vessels are banned from fishing inside the Republic of Ireland’s six-mile limit. But the Republic’s fleet has not been excluded from Northern Ireland waters.

Who could possibly want to leave such a club? It’s similar in the English Channel, where Dutch, French and Spanish boats seem to have licence to grab far greater catches than British vessels. I can only assume that Theresa May has been handling fishing policy all these years. And then today –

Two Northern Ireland fishermen whose boats were impounded by the Irish Navy on Thursday have appeared in court.

Now there’s a friendly gesture. I have an idea. British boats can stay in British waters, and Irish boats stay in Irish waters. Different jurisdictions, different countries after all.

84 Responses to “IT’S AS IF THERE’S SOME KIND OF BORDER”

  1. Fishing, or the lack of it, is the least of our problems outside the EU empire..

    Eeeeeek!

    The New Statesman has published an unintentionally hilarious article by the aptly-named Dr Rebecca Grossman, a GP who is trying to hard sell the notion that no deal could lead to “more unplanned pregnancies” or even “individuals resorting to alternative methods of contraception, such as sterilisation.” Has she forgotten that Brexit was about bringing an end to protectionism?

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/01/project-fear-latest-hard-brexit-will-cause-unplanned-pregnancies/

    Oh Noooo, what are going to do?

    Oh the horror..

    😏

  2. Ireland has a warship?

    I suspect any other naval ships they might have, are being used as taxis for George Soros.

  3. So Brexit might lead to more reckless sex ! Wow, sign me up to the Out means Out group now 🥰

  4. They’re all Irish boats. Must be a Louth jealousy thing – we play them in the national league in a few weeks.

  5. As Reg says these boats are Irish boats and should have been treated like it. If a boat came over from England then impound it but the fact they came from another part of Ireland to fish in Irish waters means they should have been allowed.

  6. Anyone following developments in London?

    It seems the DUP was just about to endorse May’s deal after her claimed “breakthrough” last night, and the ERG actually said it would go along with the DUP if they supported the deal (WTF?).
    Rees-Mogg was obviously glad to have some, any, excuse for a volte-face.

    But now Cox has spoken, and it seems the legal declarations aren’t enough. According to the BBC, the DUP now saying it will vote against the deal today after all.

  7. I can’t see it passing. It will likely fall by a lesser but broadly similar margin than last time. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. There is no solution that commands a majority in Parliament. Parliament has ruled out a no deal Brexit, has ruled out May’s deal (and likely will again), has ruled out a second vote etc…

  8. On a side not the size of the defeat will be interesting. May already owns the distinction of having the largest government defeat in the history of the UK. She lost her first deal vote by 230 votes (compared to the then record of Ramsey MacDonald who lost a vote on the Campbell case by 166 votes).

    I expect May will have peeled off some of the votes who rejected her deal in January but I’d doubt she’d have anything close to winning. What would be interesting is if she breaches the 166 mark. If not then she would not only have the record for the largest government defeat ever, but she’d also have the 2nd largest ever.

  9. She has certainly put a lot of work into this, but if she loses today, I can’t see her hanging on.
    What keeps her in power is of course the lack of an alternative, but by the way things are going, it’s hard to see how management of a developed country could be any worse.

    But you never know, the fear of the whole Brexit movement being reversed might be enough to scare many MPs into backing this deal as at least Brexit-lite.

  10. The decision of the ERG and the DUP to oppose it means there will still be about 1/3 of the Tories who will oppose it. She pretty much can’t win in those circumstances, even if she peels of the occasional one. In the absence of universal support from the Tories (and the DUP) she needs Labour support – which isn’t there.

    What happens next is hard to tell. She has lost unprecedented support from her own cabinet that would have been the ending of previous Prime Ministers. She suffered the largest defeat in history, which would have been the ending of previous Prime Ministers. She will likely see the same thing happen today.

    The Tory right can’t take her out is the thing. They can’t trigger another leadership election until December. So they have two choices. a) Grin and bear it with May, supporting her as Prime Minister but very little else or b) collapse the government and go to a General Election. They have very few cards to play, which is why May is still there.

  11. Very interesting, if complicated.

    It’s also crazy to see the power the DUP seems to have in London. That goon Rees-Mogg actually said this morning that if the Deal is good enough for the DUP, it’s good enough for him and the ERG, and they will go which ever way Dodds goes. High-class Tories being wagged by Ulster backwoodsmen. Rees-Mogg also seems to have forgotten generations of anti-Catholic bigotry.

    This is beyond the DUP’s vote support or any working agreement to keep the Conservatives in power. The old Tory-Unionist faith seems to be as strong as ever, despite all that GFA stuff about London being constitutionally neutral and having “no selfish interest” in NI etc.

    Let’s at any rate hope that May doesn’t now renage on tomorrow’s and Thursday’s vote.

  12. The fate of the mighty United Kingdom resting on the shoulders of occasional naturist and full-time village idiot, Sammy Wilson.

    It’s tragi-comic.

  13. //The fate of the mighty United Kingdom resting on the shoulders of occasional naturist and full-time village idiot, Sammy Wilson.//

    MR, Sammy Wilson is a good Bible-reading Ulster Protestant. I’ll remind you that that book also started with a man and woman naked in a garden and ended with Revelations.

  14. An EU border huh?

    As any self-respecting Brexit pundit will be more than happy to remind us, smart borders featuring mythological things like remote customs declarations and automated number plate checking are simply “unicorns” which aren’t likely to be possible for hundreds, if not thousands of years. They certainly won’t be suitable for any post-Brexit border crossings…

    Which is why French Customs have just unveiled a “smart border” – an “innovative technological solution” which will be implemented on 29 March 2019 “at all points of entry/exit to/from the Calais region and at border points from Channel-North Sea to maintain smooth circulation of your goods.” What are they thinking wasting their time on this? If only they’d listened to the commentariat…

    The French say their system is based on three principles, which are obviously from the realms of pure fantasy:

    The early completion of customs procedures before arriving at the border by giving the bar code of the customs declaration to the driver.
    The identification of the mean of transport and the bar code of customs declaration of transported goods.
    The automatic sending of the crossing notifications to the customs declarant to avoid stopping the HGV.
    The bar codes are linked to the number plates of the HGVs so hauliers have no need to stop, avoiding delays to the vast quantities of goods that pass between the UK and France every day. But of course, none of this could ever possibly work to monitor the tiny quantities of agricultural products and construction materials that cross the Irish border

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/11/france-unveils-technological-smart-border-solution/

    The Irish.and the the rest of us Brits and general EU plebs have been played like a fiddle.

    You just have to take off to Monsieur Barnier and the other EU Emperors.

    They have played a blinder.

  15. *your hats off

  16. The French Customs solution would require ANPR systems to be installed at the border. Which will then be cut down and vandalised pretty much straight away.

  17. Seamus.

    That’s a tad weak argument to be frank.

    Look, if GreatvBritain can’t escape from the new Brussels empire, then no one can

    Its not possible.

  18. It isn’t. From your own link – “The bar codes are linked to the number plates of the HGVs so hauliers have no need to stop, avoiding delays to the vast quantities of goods that pass between the UK and France every day”. The only way for that to work is with Automatic Number Plate Recognition cameras. Which will be cut down.

    Have you any solutions that involve no new infrastructure at the border?

  19. “Look, if GreatvBritain can’t escape from the new Brussels empire, then no one can”

    Britain can leave. In fact the EU this week put an offer on the table where Britain leaves without any deal – as long as Northern Ireland stays.

    The Brits said no.

  20. Sammy ‘let them eat chips’ Wilson is the jolly jape quip king the DUP wheel out when they need a ‘witty’ one liner to make light of something.

    He’s also a sectarian wee bastard. He must fucking love the fact that he’s telling an upper class Taig what to do.

  21. Have you any solutions that involve no new infrastructure at the border?

    Revert back to a common market, and raze Brussels to the ground, then salt the earth afterwards, so it can never rise again.

    The old British empire failed, the new Brussels empire will ultimately go the same way.

  22. “Revert back to a common market”

    The old common market would require a border. Which is why before 1993 there was no free movement of goods of the border in Ireland.

    Want to try again? Have you any solutions that involve no new infrastructure at the border?

  23. *over the border in Ireland

  24. You absolutely could have a single market /common market in physical goods that didn’t have any hard border.

  25. Phantom

    Precisely.

    Its only a matter of time before the Brussels vassal area of Brussels are bought to heel.

    They have new masters now.

  26. *area of Ireland

  27. “You absolutely could have a single market /common market in physical goods that didn’t have any hard border.”

    Absolutely.

    However Harri wants to bring back the old common market that existed in the EEC (the predecessor of the EU). The Single Market replaced the common market in 1993. Before 1993 goods crossing the Irish border were subject to checks. That system ended in 1993 with the creation of the Single Market. So it is simply wrong to suggest that going to old common market would require no checks on the border. The opposite is true.

    “Its only a matter of time before the Brussels vassal area of Brussels are bought to heel.

    *area of Ireland”

    Ireland isn’t a vassal of Brussels. In fact the EU exists to serve its member states, not the other way around. The EU are dancing to the tune picked by the Irish Government, not the other way around.

    So, do either of you have you any solutions that involve no new infrastructure at the border?

  28. The movement of people and the movement of goods/services are both complications here.

    I have no solutions , but I do know that Ireland didn’t create this problem, bro.

  29. In reality there are only 5 possible outcomes, none of which seem politically acceptable.

    1. No deal (which creates a hard border on the island of Ireland)
    2. May’s deal (which no one seems to like)
    3. A Northern Ireland only backstop (which creates a border down the Irish Sea – and is opposed by the DUP/ERG)
    4. The UK remains in the Customs Union and Single Market (Brexit in name only)
    5. No Brexit (which throws the Referendum result out the window).

  30. You could make the case that 3 is good for the economy of all of Ireland, and that it would serve the economic interests of Unionists as well?

  31. Its hard to tell. There are issues with 3 as well (Northern Ireland would be in the EU but wouldn’t have any say in the EU – we wouldn’t elect any MEPs, wouldn’t have a Commissioner [currently the UK appoints a Commissioner], wouldn’t have a seat at the European Council, or the Council of the European Union). It would also cause some disruption to trade going from Northern Ireland to Britain. It would actually cause a disruption to more trade as Northern Ireland currently trades more with Britain than with the Republic or the rest of the EU. However that disruption would be relatively minor as all trade is currently funneled through already secure areas. You don’t have two hundred border crossings that need to be monitored, only a limited number of ports and airports.

    In reality there is no good solution. That’s the problem that Brexit has caused. There simply is no obvious beneficial solution that would fix all the problems (or even give more benefits than problems caused).

  32. I really don’t understand why the DUP are so dead set against 3.
    It has the potential to turn the state of NI into an economic powerhouse and will stabilise its position within the UK

  33. It could allow Belfast to compete for some of the financial jobs that are now going from London to Dublin

    That process is not over

  34. https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Ireland&city1=Dublin&country2=United+Kingdom&city2=Belfast

    And Belfast is quite a bit less expensive than overheated Dublin

    Tell your politicos to think jobs, not politics?

  35. //3. A Northern Ireland only backstop (which creates a border down the Irish Sea – and is opposed by the DUP/ERG)

    You could make the case that 3 is good for the economy of all of Ireland, and that it would serve the economic interests of Unionists as well?

    Seamus, on March 12th, 2019 at 6:23 PM Said:

    Its hard to tell. There are issues with 3 as well (Northern Ireland would be in the EU but wouldn’t have any say in the EU – we wouldn’t elect any MEPs, w//

    “3” or any possible Brexit solution cannot be “good for the economy of all of Ireland”.
    Britain is Irelands most important market by far, accounting for around 50% of Irish exports in key sectors. Over 1 billion EUR is traded between Britain and Ireland every week.

    (the UK in turn exports more to Ireland than to China, India and Brazil combined. Ireland is Britain’s 6th most important customer)

    Every form of Brexit is bad for Ireland, and anyone wanting to see Ireland prosper has to reject all versions of that venture.

  36. It’s hard to see some form of Brexit not happening.

    It’s also hard not to be critical of Brexit supporters for not thinking more about the Irish side of the matter.

    Say what you will about it the EU with the UK and ROI both in it was a skillful way of making the border less of an issue.

    Ireland didn’t ask for this change.

    If there is anyone that should bend on these border matters, it must be the British.

  37. Brexit I’d say is about 50/50 now. There is likely no deal that can satisfy the demands of both the EU and the British Government. May’s deal, which no one liked, was probably about as close as you could get to doing so. In the absence of a deal it becomes a debate between no deal Brexit or no Brexit. I’d say 50/50 at the moment.

  38. Say what you will about it the EU with the UK and ROI both in it was a skillful way of making the border less of an issue.

    Ireland didn’t ask for this change.

    If there is anyone that should bend on these border matters, it must be the British

    That’s a welcome and surprising comment Phantom and while I sincerely congratulate you on it I can’t help feeling that if I had made it you and others here would be accusing me of something along the lines of being a EU fanatic or anti British. But well done anyway.

    There’s also the matter of not only what Brexit will do to the border in Ireland but what effect it will have on a certain International Agreement from 1998 which played no small part in normalising and stabilising life in the wee six, and particularly its effects on Strand Two of that Agreement. If the dunderhead British Secretary of State for the northern state has admitted she hasn’t read it I can’t expect Brit Brexit politicos much less the Brit average 5’8 to have read it.

    What British politicians and public don’t seem to understand if that the border issue in Ireland isn’t only or perhaps even mostly about customs revenues and imports. It’s about communities, families and land being separated. If hi tech customs posts appear anywhere along the 300 odd mile invisible line in Ireland they WILL be attacked. It’s not a matter of if but when and these attacks will happen. These attacks could take any form from at best mild vandalism to at worst bomb attacks (with my own opinion being van loads of masked South Armagh hairy arses taking angle grinders to them)

    The thinking is that this customs appauratus will then have to be guarded by the PSNI who will be attacked with stones which will very quickly turn into petrol bombs and bullets. The British Army will then be brought in to guard the guards and when British soldiers are brought back onto Irish streets very soon we’ll be back to square one.

    You’re correct. Ireland didn’t ask for any of it.

  39. While I am not without sympathy for Brexit – I posted on it, early…the above is just cold analysis.

    The Irish border that isn’t much of a border has been a good thing for a long time, for everyone there.

    No one’s going to get all that they want.

    The problem there wasn’t created out of ill will, but it wasn’t thought through.

    I’d like the Unionist side of the site to give some comment here.

    What’s your best good faith proposal, that is in line with the spirit and the letter of the GFA that your people voted for.

  40. The problem there wasn’t created out of ill will, but it wasn’t thought through

    I’d agree but would go even further saying it wasn’t thought about at all.

    What’s your best good faith proposal, that is in line with the spirit and the letter of the GFA that your people voted for.

    I don’t know. Strand Two of the GFA established:

    […] an Irish dimension to the governing arrangements for Northern Ireland. The North–South institutions (the North–South Ministerial Council (NSMC) and the North–South Implementation Bodies encourage co-operation that benefits both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

    I honestly can’t see how that circle can be squared with Brexit.

  41. A very interesting topic would be what, on the one hand, Irish people would be prepared to sacrifice in terms of relationship with the EU for a united Ireland and, on the other hand, what Brexiteers would be prepared to sacrifice in terms of relationship with Northern Ireland to get a clean Brexit.

    I’m surprised the subject (or at least the British part of it) hasn’t been raised already. Britain could easily have the Brexit they want if it weren’t for NI.

    For my part, I’d be prepared to have Ireland out of the EU along with Britain for the sake of a united – and peaceful – Ireland, if that were possible.

  42. For my part, I’d be prepared to have Ireland out of the EU along with Britain for the sake of a united – and peaceful – Ireland, if that were possible.

    You would think that’s almost a no-brainer.

    Esp as a 32 county Ireland would then able to cut its own, likely, favorable deals with the UK on the matter of trade and personal movement, as it would be able to cut its own deals with the EU and rest of world on those things.

    The EU has I believe largely been a good deal for Ireland, but lets face it – the ties with Britain will always be much stronger than they’ll be with any other European nation.

    I can’t see Ireland leaving the EU though.

  43. I don’t think it possible as the Irish are one of the most pro EU nations in the Union Noel however for my part I’d be prepared to go Irexit if it guaranteed that Ireland would be reunited, peaceful and prosporous. I.e, she didn’t return to the days when her biggest export was her children.

  44. In reality the major issue with an Irish exit from the EU, especially if it came at the same time as a British exit from the EU, would likely be a return to the economy of the past where Ireland was largely economically tethered to Britain, for good or for bad. Increasingly Ireland aren’t looking to Britain and are looking to Europe so I don’t think it would have great support.

    Its also most likely that Ireland would get a better trade deal with the UK as part of the EU (negotiating as a massive collective block) than it would get negotiating on its own. The same is true with Ireland negotiating with every other country on the planet. The EU has economic muscle it can flex with the Americans and China, something Ireland on its own does not have.

  45. I absolutely agree with that analysis Seamus.

  46. Seamus

    Hard to argue with that, but I’d think that the UK would be inclined to offer very fair terms in this situation.

  47. Would they? Overwhelmingly the Brexit project has unveiled a startling underlying perception of Ireland held by the Brexiteers. They still see Ireland has this little colony that should do what it is told, and be happy with the scraps granted to it. I think they would offer what they see are very fair terms but whether they would be fair terms or not remains to be seen. They certainly have been deeply uncharitable to Ireland during the Brexit negotiations, constantly attempting to undermine the virtually unanimous Irish position on Brexit.

  48. You think so Phantom?

    https://www.irishpost.com/news/conservative-mp-brexit-162625

  49. I think that they’d want the closest possible ties.

    Maybe too close for some!

  50. I think there are some Tory MPs who still think as Ireland as really being part of Britain. And they act like it. To them Ireland is some colonial outpost with ideas above their station. So I can’t see that sort acting in good faith when it comes to Ireland.

  51. The U.K. and Ireland seemless members of the EU working with their fellow European partners. That is what worked to the benefit of all. If it ain’t broke don’t Brexit!

  52. Will somebody please write an article!!

    Here’s some idiocy from an idiot…….

    https://twitter.com/FOX10Phoenix/status/1104579653010776068

    FOX 10 Phoenix
    ‏Verified account @FOX10Phoenix

    #BREAKING: Rural Metro has responded to a report of a woman getting attacked by a jaguar at Wildlife World Zoo.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/jaguar-who-attacked-arizona-woman-taking-selfie-at-zoo-will-not-be-euthanized-officials-say

    A jaguar won’t be punished for a woman whose selfie went horribly wrong.

    The jaguar that attacked an Arizona woman — who jumped a barrier to snap a selfie with the feline — will not be euthanized, zoo officials said Sunday.

    Wildlife World Zoo officials told social media users the jaguar “won’t be put down” after a woman in her 30s suffered injuries to her arm following the Saturday incident. The woman jumped a barrier at the Litchfield Park zoo and reached out to take a selfie when the big cat dug her claws into the visitor’s hand.

    The woman who jumped the fence to get a selfie with a jaguar should be euthanised by that same jaguar

  53. Well it made me laugh

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/12/titania-mcgraths-stark-brexit-warning/

  54. //The woman who jumped the fence to get a selfie with a jaguar should be euthanised by that same jaguar//

    What if it’s a black jaguar attacking a white Arizona woman?

  55. BTW Great catch, Harri 🙂

  56. Brit gov plans for the border in the wake of a no deal Brexit are to be published later today. I wonder will there be anything concrete in them or will it be more of the same airy fairy nondescript vague ‘technological solutions’ that we’ve become used to?

    Westminster to have conscience vote later today on preventing a no deal Brexit. Predictions?

  57. Christ, what an absolute mess:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-acknowledges-regime-will-hurt-north-s-businesses-1.3824076

    The British government acknowledges that the regime will hurt Northern Ireland’s businesses but says the need to keep the Border open trumps economic concerns. The announcement comes hours after the DUP’s 10 MPs voted against British prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal and ahead of a vote this evening when they are expected to reject a proposal to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47551121

    What is being proposed here is quite extraordinary.

    You would have a scenario where if you’re a food exporter in the Republic of Ireland and send stuff to Holyhead you will face tariffs, if you send it over the border to Newry you will not face tariffs

    However, you could have the situation where farmers and food producers in Northern Ireland trying to send their stuff in the other direction will face tariffs.

    That will be up to the Irish government and the EU to decide.

    So it will seriously undermine the competiveness of Northern Ireland farmers

    I wonder how that border poll and the next DUP election results are looking?

  58. Actually, this made me smile too..

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/13/another-childs-letter-tusk/

  59. And this..

    https://order-order.com/2019/03/13/obr-forecasts-600000-new-jobs-continuous-growth-next-five-years/

  60. I’d like the Unionist side of the site to give some comment here.

    What’s your best good faith proposal, that is in line with the spirit and the letter of the GFA that your people voted for.

    C’mon guys.

    You must want something specific to happen. What is it?

  61. “The Single Market is the EEA, the European Economic Area. No-one is proposing to leave it, no-one is campaigning to leave it, and the UK will not leave it.”

  62. MPs vote to reject no-deal Brexit

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47562995

  63. Man, this is brutal.

  64. As I said yesterday there are 5 possible outcomes. Parliament has rejected 4 of the 5 at some point in time and most likely, should it be put to them, would reject the other one as well. Regardless of your view on Barnier he is right when he says the Commons are very good at saying what they don’t want but aren’t very good at saying what they want.

  65. Apologies. I just checked. They’ve actually rejected all 5.

  66. The DUP wanted to prevent a border in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. But that is what would happen under a no-deal Brexit, which they voted (on the losing side) to keep alive tonight. The UK would make Northern Ireland into a smugglers’ paradise with who knows what damage to the fragile NI economy. But it would not accept massive smuggling from Belfast to Liverpool, so customs checks would become a reality sooner than later, never mind any problems with WTO rules:

    “How will the Irish border system work? The government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls, or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

    The move, to avoid friction at the UK’s land border with the EU, will be temporary while a long solution is found. The government said tariffs will be payable on goods moving from the EU into the rest of the UK via Northern Ireland. It insisted that this would create no border down the Irish sea because there would be no checks on goods moved between Northern Ireland and Britain.

    But Prof Winters said it “almost certainly” violates World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules that demand equal treatment for all trading partners, he said. “Leaving the Irish border open also opens up the possibility of some EU goods being shipped to the UK via Ireland and so avoiding UK tariffs.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47551266

  67. Spot on, Peter. It’s a mess.

  68. I wonder how that border poll and the next DUP election results are looking?

  69. You must want something specific to happen. What is it?

    Phantom

    The obvious solution is for the UK to remain within the EU Customs Union. Given that the vote for Leave was 52:48 and that Scotland and Northern Ireland both voted Remain by about 60:40 and that Wales voted Leave by less than 51:49, Theresa May should have accepted that Leave was primarily an English Leave and accepted a UK compromise at the start. Instead she decided to ignore the 48% completely and opted for leaving both the Single Market and the Customs Union, and those red lines have proved incompatible with preventing a hard border in Ireland without accepting the hated “Backstop”.

    That compromise was and is to respect the Leavers by withdrawing from the EU institutions and its Single Market, thereby ending free movement, but also respect the Remainers by remaining in the Customs Union, thereby (mostly) solving the Irish border problem. And also avoiding the pure fantasy of “free trade” deals with Trump’s protectionist USA and the shamelessly mercantilist Chinese and Indians. The UK will do much better if those deals (if they ever happen) are negotiated by the EU.

  70. Good sensible summary Peter. Although I am very much a remainer I would find that compromise quite acceptable.

  71. May will bring her hated deal back next week. Maybe it will be third time lucky? It looks like the DUP and their right-wing Tory allies may be ready to fold. For the benefit of our US friends, “ERG” = European Research Group = UKIP within the Tories.

    “Theresa May’s extension motion makes clear that she intends to bring her deal back for another vote in the next seven days. The motion states that if a meaningful vote has been passed by the 20th of March, then the government will request a short technical extension to pass the necessary Brexit legislation. (This request would be made at the European Council meeting next Thursday). But if no deal has been passed by the 20th, the UK would request a much longer extension–which would require the UK to participate in the EU Parliament extensions.

    So, it is clear that the government are going to try and pass the meaningful vote between now and the 20th. There is optimism in government that it might be third time lucky for the withdrawal agreement. The talks with the DUP are, I’m told, going quite well. If they come on board, then a large number of the ERG will fold their tents and vote for the deal…”

  72. That’s a pretty sensible proposal Peter.

  73. Sorry, here is the link I left out:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/meaningful-vote-3-in-the-next-seven-days/

  74. There are 650 MPs and only 50 or so have always wanted a no-deal Brexit. So it would be a grotesque outcome if that tail managed to wag the dog. But until tonight’s votes that was a very real possibility and it still cannot be ruled out entirely.

    I laugh when I read that tomorrow Parliament will “vote for” an extension to Article 50. What it will vote for is to ask the EU for an extension, and if that is not agreed by all 27 EU states then the UK will leave without a deal on 29 March, unless Parliament either votes to accept May’s deal (at the third attempt) or votes to rescind Article 50, which would mean overturning the referendum entirely.

    I have a sneaking suspicion that if push comes to shove France could veto an extension of Article 50. It’s just a hunch, but don’t rule it out.

  75. “That compromise was and is to respect the Leavers by withdrawing from the EU institutions and its Single Market, thereby ending free movement, but also respect the Remainers by remaining in the Customs Union, thereby (mostly) solving the Irish border problem”

    Pete Moore would be delighted with that compromise.

    Long ago he predicted “If Brexit prevails, we’ll just slide across to another circle.”

    http://www.atangledweb.org/?p=63675

  76. I have a sneaking suspicion that if push comes to shove France could veto an extension of Article 50. It’s just a hunch, but don’t rule it out

    That’s the same principle behind the Brextremist mask of reasonableness ‘let Art 50 be enacted and then at some stage in the future the UK can reapply to join the EU if the electorate so wishes’

    Membership of the EU requires unanimity between all members states and it’s highly unlikey that the UK’s bid for readmission wouldn’t be vetoed by at least one member state.

  77. Yes Paul. I think if the UK requests an extension of three months with a clear commitment to sort out a Brexit consensus in Parliament, then the EU will probably agree.

    But if it’s anything less than that I think that Les Francais will cordially invite Les Rosbifs to multiply and go forth.

  78. Fews, great catch at 10.51.

    I honestly believe that the DUP had no idea that Brexit could possibly result in leaving both the Single Market and the Customs Union and the consequent danger of a hard border in Ireland, as in danger to the Union. For most of them it was a flag waving exercise and we know how much they love flags.

  79. We may be witnessing the death of the Tories as a party of government. Let’s hope so:

    “After the government’s 149-vote defeat on Tuesday, “building a consensus” means reaching out to Labour. But May does not do reaching out on Brexit. In her mind, reaching out means a softer Brexit; a softer Brexit means splitting the Tory party; and a split Tory party means a Corbyn government. In May’s political cosmology, she is prime minister to deliver Brexit on the back of Conservative and DUP votes. That’s why she remains determined to try a third time, probably as soon as next week. She may even pull it off.

    So Hammond’s very public advocacy of a wholly different Brexit route, delivered with May glowering stony-faced and silent on the benches behind him, showed the shift that was taking place in the government, in the Tory party and in parliament. It announced, in effect, that the national interest matters more than the party interest, because an agreed Brexit deal that passes is a higher priority than May’s deal, which has now been twice defeated. It therefore has to imply that Hammond thinks that May may have to go…

    Tonight’s Tory disobedience towards May over Brexit is part of a new party instability with immense potential implications. The contest that will follow May’s departure could reshape British politics. It will not just decide the next leader of the party but whether the modern Conservative party, in which the grassroots are overwhelmingly anti-European, has a serious future as a majority party of government. If the Tories elect someone from the rightwing nationalist wing, running on a hard Brexit ticket, it would complete the capture of the party by what, not so long ago, was a tiny sect…”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/13/theresa-may-deal-vote-mps-brexit

  80. MP’s in Westminster vote to delay Brexit by a huge margin:

    UK MPs have voted by 412 to 202 for Prime Minister Theresa May to ask the EU for a delay to Brexit.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47576813

  81. MP’s in Westminster vote to delay Brexit by a huge margin clear majority.

  82. There will be no Brexit.

    How many more times?

    Hotel California.

    You can try to check out, but you can never actually leave.

    The establishment 1 – the plebs 0

    And the circus marches on..relentless.

  83. Paul McMahon, on March 14th, 2019 at 6:48 PM Said:
    MP’s in Westminster vote to delay Brexit by a huge margin clear majority.

    Shock, horror.

    😱

  84. There’s something deliciously ironic about this timing:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-brexit-unexploded-bomb-found-14135815

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.