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HE IS RISEN

By Pete Moore On April 17th, 2019

Bang: Sir Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party only got up and running a week ago. It’s barely started campaigning for the European elections next month. How are things looking?

Looking pretty good I’d say. The Brexit Party will win the elections, and I reckon their support will be up around  35 per cent or even higher by polling day. The combined effect of positive campaigning and a tsunami of establishment propaganda will see to that.

UKIP ought to close the shop. Farage is hoovering up the moderate vote now. Add in the Tory and Labour monkeys who are moderate but still cling to old tribal loyalties, and we are still a Leave nation. The extremists, the EU jihad factions, are well behind.  This is what the establishment gets for screwing us over.

12 Responses to “HE IS RISEN”

  1. People realise how unimportant the Euro elections are

    eg 1989 labour won the most seats as a protest, in 1992 the torys were reelected as the government, greens won 14% of vote, never get that in a real election

    1999 torys beat labour. 2001 blair wins again

    2004 ukip win a bunch of seats, they only ever managed to get 1 MP elected

  2. The new party will probably also punch above its weight in May, as its supporters are probably more motivated to get out and vote than traditional Tory or Labour voters. The Leave wing of the two large parties will probably stay at home, and when you add in the general EU-fatigue for the rest it looks like a very low turnout for everyone except Farage.

  3. So if my calculations are correct you have:

    Hard Brexit:

    Brexit Party – 27%
    UKIP – 7%

    Total: 34%

    Soft Brexit:

    Conservatives – 15%

    Total: 15%

    Total Brexit: 49%

    Remain:

    Labour – 22%
    Green – 10%
    Liberal Democrats – 9%
    Change UK – 6%
    SNP & Plaid – 4%

    Total: 51%

    51% supporting broadly Remain aligned parties. Yeah some “Leave nation”.

  4. Seamus –

    The moderates are The Brexit Party, UKIP, and the many Tory and Labour monkeys who want Brexit but have yet to let go of tribal voting habits.

    The extremists are the Eco-commies, the Lib Dems and the Tiggers.

    SNP and Plaid Commie are irrelevent.

  5. You are of course mistaken – taken the most extreme version of something is the opposite of moderation. Now being radical is not a problem. Radicalism is sometimes called for.

    But you will also find I never once said moderate or anything coming close to it. I said those in favour of a hard Brexit poll at 34%, those in favour of a soft Brexit poll at 15% (combined for a total Brexit vote of 49%), while those who more broadly support Remaining poll at 51%.

  6. I think I can see which party the brexit voters is switched from.

  7. Surprise surprise surprise one issue parties do well with one issue voters?

  8. These polls actually prove how quite a few people care nothing about the details of politics . The Brexit party is a nothingburger, just a gimmick for Nigel Farage. He could have called it the Weetabix party and would still get a popular surge of protest voters who spend about a nanosecond actually thinking seriously about what that party can offer them.

  9. I’ve had a look at what the seat numbers would be, given that polling. It would be:

    Brexit Party – 26 (+26)
    Labour – 21 (+1)
    Conservatives – 9 (-10)
    Liberal Democrats – 5 (+4)
    Green Party – 3 (+2)
    SNP – 3 (+1)
    UKIP – 1 (-23)
    Plaid – 0 (-1)

    So UKIP largely replaced by the Brexit Party, while the Tories lose ground to a combination of the Brexit Party and some of the Remain parties.

    There was some talk that the main Remain parties (Liberal Democrats, Chuka’s people, and the Greens) could present a joint list. Change UK rejected it, as did the Greens. Ultimately it is insane for them to do so.

    If they did the seats would be:

    Brexit Party – 22 (+22)
    Remain Joint List – 20 (+16)
    Labour – 17 (-3)
    Conservative – 7 (-12)
    SNP – 3 (+1)
    UKIP – 1 (-23)
    Plaid – 0 (-1)

    So 10 more seats (4 from Labour, 4 from the Brexit Party, and 2 from the Tories).

  10. All the above ar correct: People tend to view Euro elections as less important than others, a low turn out as a result of Brexit overkill is pretty much garaunteed and a new single issue kid on the block on the issue of the day may do okay on its first outing. That this would translate into support at national elections though is questionable.

    A word of caution though Pete, are these the same polls that had you, the Nige and Brendan O’Neill lamenting Brexit’s defeat in the closing hours of the referendum?

    One thing you gotta love about the Nige, for all his banging on about ‘the political class’ she sure seems to love being part of it himself.

  11. Looking at that graph, after UKIP, the biggest losses proportionally are the Nationalist parties like the SNP. The Labour and the Tories, for Remain Parties, are not suffering enough and CUK will one day go the same way as the SDP.

  12. “Looking at that graph, after UKIP, the biggest losses proportionally are the Nationalist parties like the SNP.”

    Probably not. If you look at the YouGov polling the Nationalists are polling at 35% in Scotland. So that’s the SNP in Scotland polling at 35%. They got 29% in the last election. So they have actually increased.

    So in terms of seats the most likely scenario is that Plaid will do badly in Wales (losing a seat) but the SNP will do well in Scotland (gaining a seat).