web analytics

WELL NOW

By Pete Moore On May 3rd, 2019

86 Responses to “WELL NOW”

  1. It has been in steady decline since 2010. Why didn’t you fake news guys celebrate then?

    https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns14000000

  2. The labour participation rate remains stuck at 63%. Patrick used to point this out when Obama was POTUS, but since Trump was elected he hasn’t bothered. Strange that. Not.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

  3. everything bad in Obama’s 8yrs was “Bush’s Fault” everything Good during the Trump years are “Obama’s Credit”.

    Obama was a wannabe dictator that used the IRS/DOJ/FBI/NSA/CIA TO PERSECUTE ANYONE that did not agree with him, he locked up reporters, he bugged their houses and phones, he bugged over 500 AP reporters phones. His justice department fixed one candidates criminal problems while they framed the other candidate. They gave 180 Billion dollars to terrorists becoming the largest financial backer of terrorism in the world and sold guns to drug cartels.

    the list goes on and on…..

  4. I still do Peter

    In my comment earlier today I said don’t pay any attention to the unemployment number. Until 300,000 jobs a month are created unemployment is still growing.

    but facts even about things written here mean nothing do they?

  5. According to the record (Phantom’s link), the unemployment figure dropped by just under 2 percent during the first two years of the previous term (Obama’s) and by only 0.8 percent during the first two years of Trump’s term.

    But Propaganda Pete ignored the first fall and was jubilant about the second, much smaller, decrease.

  6. In fairness to Crooked Trump, the recovery had been well underway.

    You can only improve so much.

  7. He says that this is the best economy in American history. Which is complete nonsense, but the mob actually believes it.

    The recovery rolls on, which is gratifying, but the economy and the society are very little changed from what we saw 27 plus months ago.

  8. Phantom, Noel –

    You appear to read things into my post which are not there.

  9. Pray tell what is there

  10. That which is in every American themed post Pete puts up. A pro Trump ra ra to piss off the lefties 😉

  11. I still do Peter

    You do Patrick? Please link to your most recent post on labour participation rates. My hunch is that it preceded November 2016, but no doubt you will correct me if I’m wrong.

  12. if you read my comment from the other thread earlier this very day I said it… pay attention.

  13. off topic

    Facebook needs to be shut down.

    Facebook bans extremist leaders including Farrakhan, Jones, Yiannopoulos for being ‘dangerous’

    https://www.chron.com/news/article/Facebook-bans-far-right-leaders-including-13814271.php

    They were granted special immunity because they were a platform for free speech. I don’t like anyone on that list, but EVERYONE OF THEM HAS THE RIGHT TO SPEAK!

  14. Please confirm the date, just for the record.

  15. Yes you said that after I challenged you

    You hadn’t said anything about those stats being fake for the entire time that Trump has been president

    When Obama was president, you said it every day

    The method of calculating unemployment rate hasn’t changed since forever – But you were only complaining about it when a Democrat was in the White House

  16. Peter I have always concentrated on one number… 330,000 that is the number of people added to the looking for a job pool every month

    If the country isn’t averaging 300,000 a month in job creation unemployment is growing. I’ve argued this with Phantom for over a decade. My positions DO NOT waiver.

  17. Yes Phantom, but Patrick is only interested in Fox News talking points. That’s been obvious for years.

  18. Patrick

    Before your very recent comment, Made in response to my challenge,Had you criticized the method of calculating unemployment rate on these pages during the entire time that Trump was president?

  19. ok Phantom I’ve argued this with you for a decade.

    Find one comment where I said that number doesn’t matter.

    It’s not a left right thing it’s a population thing just like the law it’s black and white.

  20. Facebook , Like ATW,Has the right to ban anybody they feel like, So long as it’s not made on the grounds of race or color or any of that stuff

  21. “If the country isn’t averaging 300,000 a month in job creation unemployment is growing. I’ve argued this with Phantom for over a decade. My positions DO NOT waiver.”

    Trump has only managed 300,000 new jobs in a month twice in his Presidency. I guess that means the economy must be terrible under Trump. 28 months. Only 2 were he reduced unemployment.

  22. You were silent on the subject for two years!

  23. “They were granted special immunity because they were a platform for free speech. I don’t like anyone on that list, but EVERYONE OF THEM HAS THE RIGHT TO SPEAK!”

    Where were they granted special immunity because they were a platform for free speech?

  24. No Patrick, you haven’t mentioned labour participation rates since your guy got elected. Otherwise you would have answered my question.

  25. Should ATW Be forced to host Muslim political diatribes; since every Muslim deserve free speech?

  26. My positions aren’t fluid like some here.

    That #, the right to bear arms, the right to say whatever you want, my belief in god my laughing disbelief in man made climate change, my call for the destruction of Iran, my support for the jews, and the cops are never wrong.

    These things and any others that come to mind NEVER change.

  27. So are you accepting that Trump has been shit on the economy? Only 2 months with more than 300,000 jobs. On average he has added only 202,000 jobs per month. He must be awful. By your reasoning the US has lost 2,750,000 jobs under Donald Trump.

  28. Phantom, on May 4th, 2019 at 1:27 AM Said:
    Should ATW Be forced to host Muslim political diatribes; since every Muslim deserve free speech?

    Sure, find me one that is willing to jump in.

    Lets see him defend his faith, I’ll give him the floor.

  29. No one has the right to speak on somebody else’s private platform, Anymore then someone would have the right to live in somebody else’s house

    Facebook has done nothing wrong here

  30. I’m not talking about their Miserable faith,

    I don’t think that Mr. Vance would like posts here in favor of destroying the state of Israel, Or pro Islamic state terrorism diatribes

  31. no Seamus the economy is going great. It can get better.

    It’s heaven compared to the Obama economy, but we are only just getting started. The Pipelines aren’t even complete.

  32. “no Seamus the economy is going great. It can get better.”

    You said “if the country isn’t averaging 300,000 a month in job creation unemployment is growing”. By your reasoning Donald Trump has increased unemployment in the United States by 2,750,000.

    “It’s heaven compared to the Obama economy, but we are only just getting started.”

    In Obama’s second term he added on average 215,000 jobs per month. More than The Donald’s 205,000 per month.

  33. If someone was willing to approach David with a serious request for a debate about any of those topics Phantom He’d debate them himself and I would get it on film an produce it.

  34. “The longest streak of private-sector job growth on record”!

    “U.S. businesses have now added 14.4 million jobs over 73 straight months”!

    “The labor force participation rate rose to 63% in March, the same level as in November 2013”!

    All those quotes — minus the exclamation points — came from White House top economist Jason Furman. And they are all accurate.

    What’s missing, however, is context. Because when you look at these numbers in context, not only do the exclamation points disappear, but so do any claims of robust job growth under this administration.

    https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/how-good-is-job-growth-the-chart-obama-doesnt-want-you-to-see/

  35. When Donald Trump became President the Labor (sic) Force Participation Rate was 62.7%. It is now 62.8%. +0.1%. Wow. Economic genius.

  36. whether you blame Bush, the Republicans, Obama, or the Democrats….

    Obama’s economy was the worst in American History. More people were thrown into poverty than other period in our history, while he accrued more debt than ALL OTHER PRESIDENTS COMBINED while accomplishing more total job losses than over double what he created.

    “Those jobs, they’re gone forever they ain’t coming back. What he’s got a magic Wand?”

    That was his statement and his attitude, and under him they never did comeback. Now they have. Jobs aren’t being lost. The job growth fantasy of Obama only works if you cut out the losses and the cost.

  37. And Obama did continue to add new jobs, month after month, in an unprecedented fashion.

    Since records began in 1940, there have been 19 full Presidential terms. A term is 4 years, so 48 months. Guess how many Presidents went a full term adding jobs?

    1.

    Reagan’s second term her had 47. June 1986 stopped him pitching a perfect game. Lyndon Johnson had 46. Clinton had 45 twice.

    Only one President had 48 months of a Presidential term in a row were he created more jobs than he lost. Barack Obama.

  38. Seamus, on May 4th, 2019 at 1:46 AM Said:
    When Donald Trump became President the Labor (sic) Force Participation Rate was 62.7%. It is now 62.8%. +0.1%. Wow. Economic genius.

    It’s static Seamus because we have not reached that 300,000 number. It will remain static no mater how well the economy is doing until that number is reached.

  39. “Obama’s economy was the worst in American History.”

    Obama over the course of his Presidency added 10 million jobs. Despite dealing with the worst recession the US has had since the Great Depression. To put things into consideration George W. Bush added 2 million jobs.

  40. Yes Seamus the economy under Obama was milk and cookies, and the economy under Trump is a shit sandwich……

    you keep telling yourself that sunny.

  41. “It’s static Seamus because we have not reached that 300,000 number. It will remain static no mater how well the economy is doing until that number is reached.”

    Labor (sic) force participation is not an economic statistic (an indication of a growing or shrinking economy). It tracks all people over the age of 16. Not 16-65. So if a 75 year old is retired then that goes into that statistic as ‘not working’. An aging population will cause the participation rate to decline. More students going to university and not into the job market will cause the participation rate to decline.

  42. “Yes Seamus the economy under Obama was milk and cookies, and the economy under Trump is a shit sandwich……”

    No the economy under Trump is good. He inherited a booming economy and hasn’t fucked it up. Credit were credit is due.

  43. Labor (sic) force participation is not an economic statistic (an indication of a growing or shrinking economy). It tracks all people over the age of 16. Not 16-65. So if a 75 year old is retired then that goes into that statistic as ‘not working’. An aging population will cause the participation rate to decline. More students going to university and not into the job market will cause the participation rate to decline.

    are you really that dense?

    You don’t even understand what that 300,000 number is and where it comes from…. if you did you wouldn’t have made such a ridiculous comment.

    Let me give you a hint…….. The US workforce has an avg of 330,000 people ENTERING the workforce every month…. I repeat entering the workforce…….

  44. He inherited a depression and it was turned around by tax cuts and regulation cuts.

  45. Just because you don’t understand the comment doesn’t mean it is ridiculous.

    Labor (sic) force participation rate is reached by taking all people in employment and dividing it by the total number of people over the age of 16.

    That means a 17 year old high school student without a job drives the participation rate down. A 95 year old retiree drives the participation rate down. A college student without a job drives it down. If a person is disabled and unable to work it drives the participation rate down.

    The larger proportion of your citizens who are retiring creates a lower participation rate. A larger proportion of students creates a lower participation rate.

    Barack Obama is not responsible for baby boomers reaching retirement age.

  46. Obama was a Marxist bastard who ran the executive branch like it was the soviet union persecuting the american citizens while destroying the economy and dismantling the military.

    Operation Boomerang has just begun at the DOJ. That is the name of the investigation into the Trump administrations attempt to frame an American Citizen running for President.

    History will not be kind to President Obama.

  47. The US economy was booming long before Trump got his tiny hands on it. And no selective playing with data can suggest otherwise.

  48. 330,000 NEW people are added to the LOOKING FOR A JOB category every month, from graduation and population growth.

    That is the number of new people after you take into consideration ll you “facts” each month 330,000 people JOIN THE POOL.

    it is you who does not understand Seamus.

  49. If Obama were eligible to run for president in 2020, He would crush Trump in a popular and electoral landslide.

    And I say this as one who never voted for him

  50. Seamus, on May 4th, 2019 at 2:12 AM Said:
    The US economy was booming long before Trump got his tiny hands on it. And no selective playing with data can suggest otherwise.

    Wrong.

  51. That isn’t what the Labor (sic) Force Participation Rate is Patrick. That is what the Employment Rate is. The total number of people employed divided by the total number of people looking for work.

  52. Phantom, on May 4th, 2019 at 2:15 AM Said:
    If Obama were eligible to run for president in 2020, He would crush Trump in a popular and electoral landslide.

    And I say this as one who never voted for him

    If Ronald Reagan could run again he’d beat everyone.

    If…..

  53. Seamus what percentage of participation rate is considered full employment in the US?

  54. Nothing because the participation rate has nothing to do with full employment.

    However it is broadly accepted that an unemployment rate of 5% or lower is de facto full employment.

  55. ahh but it does……

    Patricipation rate must be combined with unemployment rate…. if the number of unemployed is 5% or less of the participation rate it’s full employment.

    Picture of the Job Market
    Taken together, the participation rate and the unemployment rate can provide a more comprehensive picture of the job market. A high participation rate combined with a low unemployment rate is a sure sign of a robust job market. During the late 1990s, the participation rate topped 65 percent, while the unemployment rate hovered below 5 percent. Most economists agree this was one of the best periods in modern history for American jobs.

    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061515/what-key-difference-between-participation-rate-and-unemployment-rate.asp

  56. How many baby boomers retired in the 90s?

  57. Credit where credit is due. It is an excellent jobs report and Trump shares the credit. It bodes well for the rest of 2019 and maybe beyond that.

  58. hey hey don’t be that way NYr I won’t know how to act ;(

    A lot can go wrong with the economy. It’s paused at the moment compared to where it could be if the price at the pumps wasn’t as high as it is. The american public is paying for Iran and Venezuela’s sanctions.

    The democrats control the House and Trump wants things. If they still control it after the election he’ll have to deal with them and he will. Depends then everything could stop.

  59. doesn’t matter how many leave/retire what maters is 330,000 new people that need jobs every month. The amount the retire a month is a fraction of that.

    There is actually only one way and one way only to tell if an economy is booming or failing.

    Disposable income.

  60. the little fat man fired a missile of some kind, the same week they cut the national ration of food…

    sorry sidelined

  61. KIM JONG BOOM North Korea fires ‘several new missiles’ as tensions flare with the West
    The weapons were fired towards the East Sea at around 9am local time just days after Kim Jong-un’s regime threatened the US with ‘undesired consequences’

  62. Patrick Van Roy, on May 4th, 2019 at 2:11 AM Said:

    Obama was a Marxist bastard who ran the executive branch like it was the soviet union persecuting the american citizens while destroying the economy and dismantling the military.

    No – he was a clueless dupe (watch when the teleprompter shuts down) who was selected to be the front in the same way as Ocasio-Cortez.

  63. “doesn’t matter how many leave/retire what maters is 330,000 new people that need jobs every month. The amount the retire a month is a fraction of that.”

    Utter nonsense. Participation rate measures the number of people working (or looking for work) compared to the total population. In 2008 the total population of people over the age of 65 (so still included in the participation rate but less likely to work – thus driving participation rate down) was 12.6%. It is now 14.9%. It is projected to just keep increasing. That is going to impact on the participation rate.

    College students are less likely than non-college students to have a job. So a higher proportion of college students impacts on the participation rate. In 2015 35.6% of 18 to 24 year olds were enrolled in college. In 2007 it was 34.1%. In 1991 it was 28.6%.

    The decline in participation rate, and the lack of growth in participation rate, is not linked to the economy. It is linked to the ever growing number of people who are not working for a variety of reasons, including more retirees and more students.

  64. I never said it was linked to the economy that’s what you don’t understand.

    It is linked to population and those entering the workforce which is 330.000 people a month.

    Let’s agree to disagree Seamus.

  65. “It is linked to population and those entering the workforce which is 330.000 people a month.”

    Except it isn’t. The labor (sic) force is by definition the total number of people who are employed plus the total number of people who are looking for work. I’d also query your 330,000 or your previous 300,000 number.

    The total net number of jobs added last month was 263,000 jobs. The number of people unemployed dropped by 387,000.

    That would suggest that far from the workforce growing 330,000 every month that it actually shrank by 124,000 last month. Where did you get the 330,000 figure?

  66. It’s a Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census number. I came across it over a decade ago.

  67. this is not where I got the number, but this does a not bad job explaining it,

    http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/how-many-jobs-are-needed-keep-population-growth

  68. There is no point in looking at how many jobs are need to keep up with total population growth. Because if 1,000 people turn 18 (or even 24) this month they need jobs. But if 2,000 people retire then you actually don’t need any new jobs to fill it.

    So the key demographic is 18-65 (arguably even 24-65). An estimated 340,000 people turn 18 every month. That is probably where your figure comes from. 340,000 turn 18 and need a job. Fair enough. An estimated 340,000 turn 65 every year and so give up a job that they no longer need. [The obvious caveat in both of those figures is that not all people who turn 18 want a job, while not all people who turn 65 will retire].

    So in reality due to demographic changes (an aging population, more people retiring each year than are being born) means that to actually maintain a healthy jobs market the US doesn’t need to create additional jobs. And so because of that any added job creation simply adds. Its actually 343,000 new 18 year olds and 339,000 new 65 year olds per month so it probably needs about 4,000 to maintain that.

  69. So the key demographic is 18-65 (arguably even 24-65).

    Correct

    Many Americans now attend college, and very many of them take their sweet time graduating or not graduating

    And more people than you may think retire early, formally or informally

  70. “And more people than you may think retire early, formally or informally”

    I imagine it would probably balance. I don’t have the data to suggest it but I’d argue a certain proportion of the population will retire before they are 65 while a certain proportion of the population will not retire at all when they are 65.

  71. The more you think about it the more useless the “ participation rate “ statistic is by itself.

    Any of these benchmarks must be viewed with a critical eye, And in the context of looking at all the benchmarks as well

  72. It’s a convoluted system.

  73. the fact that people live longer now would increase the “ non participation rate “

    I know a couple of people who had the good fortune to be able to retire at the age of 45 or so ( not cops, productive people from the private sector )

    If one thinks of a high labor participation percentage as a good thing, they’d see these non participants as a bad thing, When that’s not true at all

  74. yeah cops aren’t productive….. they are a luxury….

    I was forced to retire due to health. I expected and wanted to work till I dropped dead on the job.

  75. ot

    I see the Gazans fired over 100 missiles into Israel yesterday.

    http://news.trust.org/item/20190504103335-wr8m9

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/may-4-2019/

  76. Most are good, but no one should retire after 20 years as many fat cat cops and other city government types on the East Coast do as a matter of course

    That is a crime against the taxpayer that such a thing can exist

  77. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm

    96.5 million Americans not in the workforce. Of those 17.5 million of them are 16-24, and 56 million are over the age of 55. 22 million are 25-54. Of those only 25-54 year olds 2 million want a job. I would have no problem including them (and for what it is worth the 16-24 and the 55+ people who want a job) in unemployment statistics. But that is only 5 million people out 96.5 million. Of the over 1/3rd of Americans not participating in the workforce only 5% actually want a job.

  78. the rest just want a state check Seamus……

    A good portion of cops just like those that get their military 20 get jobs after they retire.

  79. It isn’t necessarily that people want state benefits. That is part of it I’m sure. But a married couple with a stay at home mummy – the stay at home mummy would be listed as not in the workforce and not looking for work. A student who lives at home, or gets money from his parents, isn’t looking for a part time job. He or she is listed as not in the workforce and not looking for work. And a 95 year old dementia patient is also not in the workforce and not looking for work.

    So undoubtedly there are a group who are happy on state benefits (or are in a poverty trap where they make more money on benefits than they would working and so working financially makes no sense). There are a group who would work under the right circumstances (both for them and for others) but those circumstances aren’t here presently.

    It is a multifaceted issue.

  80. There’s a good way to fix that poverty trap

    Slash the benefits or time limit them to motivate the Jerry Springer watching class in our lands

  81. with a lot of room for fudging the numbers.

  82. here you go….. take a trip and never leave the farm….

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/05/03/Denver-voters-might-decriminalize-magic-mushrooms/2891556821811/

  83. You could change the support network to promote both getting a job and being married. Now it’s setup to discourage both.

  84. I don’t think it so much that numbers are fudged More that all the metrics are imperfect

  85. The problem with slashing the benefits is that they often have kids. And kids shouldn’t go without a meal because mummy and daddy are feckless morons.

  86. we can still feed the kids, it’s 18 and up that have to be motivated.