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A CHANGE IS GONNA COME

By Pete Moore On May 15th, 2019

@afneil

Latest YouGov poll has Brexit party with twice as many votes as Labour and Lib Dem’s. And three times more than Tories. This whole Brexit business could destroy the party system as we’ve known it.

That’s a YouGov poll, for the EU elections, which has The Brexit Party on 34 per cent and the Tories on 10 per cent. This is about much more than the EU and Brexit. It’s much more fundamental. The silent majority has finally snapped. This is the tax paying, law abiding, do the right thing, work hard, and patriotic silent majority. And they are telling the political classes to go screw themselves. And it’s great. The Tories won’t bounce back after the EU elections. They’ve lost far too many loyal voters for good. They’ve had their chips.

47 Responses to “A CHANGE IS GONNA COME”

  1. Are voters having a little fun in elections for an organization that you soon won’t be part of shortly?

  2. “Are voters having a little fun in elections for an organization that you soon won’t be part of shortly?”

    Yes

    The European Parliament elections are a great opportunity for protest votes

  3. No, it’s a permanent change. The country is furious. A poll today for a General Election puts The Brexit Party level with the Tories.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/14/even-changing-leader-will-not-save-tories-new-poll-shows-level/

    The Brexit Party will move past the Tories for a GE, given its boost in trouncing the Tories a week today in the European elections. Try to imagine a party formed three weeks ago now level with the GOP nationally.

  4. Though it would also not have a major impact seat wise, due to the electoral system. A uniform swing (using the 2015 UKIP vote as a starting point for the Brexit Party) would put the Brexit Party (on 20.5% of the vote to use the average of the two most recent polls) on 41 seats. The Tories, also on 20.5% of the vote, would take 198 seats (199 if you include the Speaker).

    Labour: 310 seats
    Conservatives: 198 seats
    Scottish Nationalists: 55 seats
    Brexit: 41 seats
    Liberal Democrats: 22 seats
    Plaid: 4 seats
    Greens: 1 seat
    NI: 18 seats
    Speaker: 1 seat

  5. What we are seeing is not the “silent majority” rising up. Firstly in the majority of cases the “silent majority” overwhelmingly are neither silent nor in a majority. Such is the case with Pete’s pro-Brexit “silent majority”.

    What we are seeing however is a move towards parties with a clear Brexit policy. The Tories, with their fudge, are hemorrhaging support to the Brexit Party, while Labour, with their fudge, are likewise losing support to the Liberal Democrats, and to a lesser extent the Greens.

  6. Why would the BP get only 41 seats, Seamus? Did they actually survey every single constituency in Britain?

  7. I am going to sit on the fence on this one. The BP has just recently formed and people are quite naturally peed off with having to vote in European Election when they wee promised over 100 times that we would be Leaving and, therefore, not partaking.

    The next GE is not until 2022 and so there is sometime for the Tories to claw things back especially if they do deliver BREXIT and have a new charismatic leader.

    The Peterborough bi-election will be interesting though.Peterborough voted Leave and with the fall in the two main parties the BP might have a strong showing, although I am not too sure they will take it. But if they do, expect the two parties and their MP’s to be having more than the touch of the vapours.

    😉

  8. Its based on a uniform swing. And so in the same way UKIP got 12.6% of the votes in 2015 and only got 1 seat – as a large chunk of their support was spread evenly out across the UK. As such they may have come in 2nd or 3rd in a lot of seats but had very few seats where they achieved enough of a result to actually win seats. Its the major problem with the FPTP system.

    So for example in 1983, to give the most likely comparison, the Alliance took 25.4% of the vote and won 23 seats. Labour took 27.6% of the vote and won 209 seats.

  9. Seamus

    UKIP’s tactics were appalling. Much better to have targeted the key marginals and a few on elsewhere.

  10. Ultimately the major thing with a) just being founded and b) the run up to the European Elections, the Brexit Party are getting a lot of publicity. The Liberal Democrats to a lesser degree as well because of how well they did in the local elections. The publicity is unlikely sustainable and so it is also probable that the levels of support will start to decline as soon as the publicity stops.

  11. “Try to imagine a party formed three weeks ago now level with the GOP nationally.”

    You can’t, because there is virtually no history in the US of protest votes.

    By-elections (special elections in US terminology) are also a great chance for a protest vote (the Liberal party/SDP/Lim Dems have a history of spectacular by election successes)

  12. “UKIP’s tactics were appalling. Much better to have targeted the key marginals and a few on elsewhere.”

    Ultimately if UKIP had done that they maybe would have scrapped a few more votes but still would have struggled to have won seats. The votes simply weren’t there for them to do so. All that contesting less seats would have done was drop their share of the vote.

  13. *a few more votes in those seats but ….

  14. Trump was a protest vote, as was Sanders.

  15. Labour, with their fudge, are likewise losing support to the Liberal Democrats, and to a lesser extent the Greens.

    And to the Brexit Party. Let’s not forget that 25% of Labour voters voted Leave in 2016. Even if some of them have suffered Leaver’s remorse since then, that still leaves a substantial pool for Farage to fish in.

  16. It’s a protest vote (albeit looks like it could be a pretty spectacular one). The Euro elections are perfect for such displays. I predict they’ll tank in a GE…if they even exist that long.

  17. This is the tax paying, law abiding, do the right thing, work hard, and patriotic silent majority.

    No Pete. Here is Nick Cohen’s take on the Brexit Party in The Spectator:

    “Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party pretends to stand for the traditional values of old England: Parliamentary sovereignty, patriotism and decency. However little the uninitiated thought of Farage, they would expect his candidates to condemn the IRA murdering children in Warrington and to take a strong line against child pornography. Not so. Or rather, not always…

    The Brexit Party is the Farage Party. It has no manifesto, no grass roots or network of regional and national committees. He appears to have absolute power. And although he has never defended the IRA – and doesn’t say that child pornography should not be banned – he uses that power to protect and promote those that do. Small wonder he explodes when confronted with hard questions.”

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/the-twisted-truth-about-nigel-farages-brexit-party/

  18. The Brexit party is a very temporary phenomenon. It has the momentum ( No not that momentum ) of being very NOW very current but totally a product of what dominates politics today. It is a balloon and no matter how large it blows up it will burst and by this time next year whether Brexit happens or not it will be a busted flush. It is a one man band. A piece of candy floss as oppose to a solid slab of marble cake !

  19. Nice one Pete that really made me giggle. Attempting to big up the BP in an election that has all the gravity and weight of the Eurovision song contest.

    I would however welcome the BP in Government as if you think that Britain is banjaxed over Brexit now just imagine what a farce it would be with this merry band of assorted privileged elite, wannabe career politicos, ‘reformed’ revolutionary communists and various other blagards and carpet bagging inept fools with their hands on the reins of real power and responsibility. It would be hilarious.

    Give yer head a shake man. I’ve more of a chance of finding a Dodo in my fridge.

  20. “And to the Brexit Party. Let’s not forget that 25% of Labour voters voted Leave in 2016. Even if some of them have suffered Leaver’s remorse since then, that still leaves a substantial pool for Farage to fish in.”

    True though that also applies in the other direction. A relatively large percentage of Conservative voters voted to Remain in 2016. So they are a key area that the Liberal Democrats for example could make headway in.

  21. There are only two possible ways that Brexit can actually happen this year:

    1. May’s deal gets accepted next month, at the fourth attempt. It’s interesting that it is scheduled for “early June”. You can bet your last cent that “early” does not mean before 6 June which is the date of the Peterborough by-election. Labour won this seat by a whisker in 2017 but the really interesting thing is that the Brexit Party is fielding the former Tory MP as their candidate. He might not win, but he could take enough votes from both Tories and Labour to scare enough of their MPs to support her deal the following week. And of course that by-election will be preceded by the EU elections on 23 May at which both main parties will be humiliated. The Lib-Dems might even come second to the Brexit Party, which will certainly be in first place. The Tories are looking at coming fourth in any case.

    2. If May’s deal fails to pass at the fourth attempt, she will have to resign pronto. There will then be a Tory leadership election which is nailed on to elect a hard-Brexit leader, probably either Johnson or Raab. They will then call a general election, probably for early October. And they will sign an electoral pact with Farage to maximise the hard-Brexit presence in the new parliament. If the combined Tory-Brexit group wins an overall majority, the UK will leave the EU without a deal on 31 October, i.e. when the present extension expires.

    Those are the only two scenarios for Brexit, at least for this year. If the general election results in another hung parliament, all Brexit bets are off. I am (for now) excluding the possibility of a Labour win under Corbyn, but a second referendum would certainly be in play if parliament remains deadlocked.

  22. “Labour won this seat by a whisker in 2017 but the really interesting thing is that the Brexit Party is fielding the former Tory MP as their candidate.”

    Their candidate is Mike Greene, a businessman. Stewart Jackson, the former Tory MP for Peterborough, is an ardent Brexiteer (even called a child in Great Ormond Street Hospital a cretin for having a European flag), but he isn’t standing. He was rumoured to be considering it, as was George Galloway, but decided against it I guess.

  23. “If May’s deal fails to pass at the fourth attempt, she will have to resign pronto. “

    Will she? She had to resign the first time. She didn’t. She definitely had to resign the second time. She didn’t. And the same with the third.

  24. Thanks Seamus, you are correct about the Brexit candidate. I can’t see him winning, but it’s not impossible given that Peterborough voted 61% Leave in 2016. In any case he will fatally knife the Tories and seriously wound Labour. The exit polls will keep the anoraks busy for days.

    No, May is finished if her deal gets rejected for a fourth time. No credibility and no support. If necessary her cabinet colleagues will give her the push, just as they did with Thatcher in 1990. Let’s hope she has the sense to pre-empt that and leave Downing Street with at least a smidgeon of dignity.

  25. I don’t think she has any dignity left. And the difficulty is that the Tories can’t get rid of her until December. She’d have to leave. She’d have to throw in the towel and I can’t see her doing it truth be told. Part of me thinks if she had an ounce of self respect and dignity in her she’d have resigned after the first defeat.

    In terms of Peterborough there is the possibility of the Brexit Party winning it, especially as they will likely carry their momentum forward from the European elections. There is however a plethora of Brexit candidates standing.

    The Tories are standing. Farage’s party is standing. UKIP is standing. A former UKIP MEP, Patrick O’Flynn, is standing. Not to mention a couple of small right wing parties (which won’t get a lot of votes but will take some away) like the Christian Peoples party, the English Democrats etc (the parties that may take half a percent of the vote). So it could end up happening that the Brexit vote is heavily fractured (assuming it keeps its 61%).

    There are too many unknowns to give a good read on Peterborough. It is a by-election, which encourage protest voting. The sitting Labour MP was forced out over a criminal conviction. The Tories and Labour are both spiraling. In ordinary circumstances (ie what I think would happen in a general election) the odds would probably favour Labour. In a by-election where they are the defending party, and given the circumstances of Onasanya’s resignation, means that is possibly up in the air.

  26. Theresa May will resign??!? Don’t be silly, you’re still not grasping this. Theresa May is an EU official and her brief is to sign the UK up to her/Merkel/Juncker’s BRINO vassal-state agreement. If this was the 1970’s or 80’s then she would already have resigned 1000 times over, or been ousted, but that’s not the way the EU works. Theresa May could be filmed pimping 12 yr old ladyboys while snorting coke at No.10 and she still wouldn’t resign, nor would her paid-up EU cabinet demand it of her, until her sell-out non-Brexit deal is signed.

  27. In a nutshell, they’re not PRO-EU; they ARE THE EU.

  28. the Tories can’t get rid of her until December

    The Tories can change the rules as soon as next week if she refuses to confirm her exit date, and they have already made it clear that they will do so. Alternatively, the Brexit hardliners have indicated that they will support a no-confidence motion if Corbyn brings one after a fourth rejection of her Brexit deal. That would trigger a general election and she could not possibly lead the Tories into that election.

  29. “Theresa May is an EU official”

    No she isn’t.

    ” and her brief is to sign the UK up to her/Merkel/Juncker’s BRINO vassal-state agreement.”

    No it isn’t.

    “If this was the 1970’s or 80’s then she would already have resigned 1000 times over, or been ousted, but that’s not the way the EU works. “

    You’ll find it is the UK that is doing all of this. So if it isn’t how something works it is not the way the UK works.

  30. Seamus, as neither of us can definitively prove our points (as I’m not a senior civil servant with access to No.10 and niether are you) I will only state that in my opinion, you’re looking at what seems to be a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck and swims like a duck, and saying “no, it isn’t a duck, not really”. And I’m saying it is.

  31. “The Tories can change the rules as soon as next week if she refuses to confirm her exit date, and they have already made it clear that they will do so. Alternatively, the Brexit hardliners have indicated that they will support a no-confidence motion if Corbyn brings one after a fourth rejection of her Brexit deal. That would trigger a general election and she could not possibly lead the Tories into that election.”

    They could change the rules, though that is more of a nuclear option that they aren’t overly fond of (not least as it sets a future precedent of potential leadership challenges every 6 months if there is a large enough group of backbench MPs to continually trigger them).

    Also the Brexiteers supporting a no confidence vote is a complicated one, not least as given the current issues facing the Tory Party a large number of them may wind up losing their seats.

  32. “Seamus, as neither of us can definitively prove our points (as I’m not a senior civil servant with access to No.10 and niether are you) I will only state that in my opinion, you’re looking at what seems to be a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck and swims like a duck, and saying “no, it isn’t a duck, not really”. And I’m saying it is.”

    That’s not how it works. You are the one making a claim and as such the burden of proof falls on you. And anything you say without evidence can be easily dismissed without evidence as well.

    And you are not looking at a duck and calling it a duck. I’d say you are looking at a swan and calling it a duck but they aren’t even that similar. You are looking at a brick and calling it a duck.

    The only people who claim that May, and the parties etc…, are EU officials or stooges are people who either a) don’t know anything about UK governance, b) don’t know anything about EU government or c) don’t know anything about either.

    Which are you?

  33. I’ll try to answer you Seamus: I’m simply a man who has lived ling enough to follow and recognise the broad brushstrokes of UK politics since the 1980s. I will admit that I don’t know a huge lot about the ins and outs of how it all works, but I know a duck when I see one.
    As Nigel Farage remarked several years ago, “you can’t put a fag paper between [the policies of Lab/Con/Lib/Gree/etc]”. When you can’t see any difference between them, then they may as well be the same party. And I say that that’s because in reality they ARE the same party.
    I’ve also observed how the EU has operated in Greece in recent years and I see the same broad tactics applied to the UK now. Conclusion: The EU is the puppetmaster of all the mainstream parties, it just doesn’t want that curtain to drop yet.

  34. Any REAL Brexit requires a total annihilation of all the legacy political parties, that much is clear to me. None of them want a real Brexit, they’re just pretending they do. It’s a sham, a farce.

  35. Hence the term “No Deal Brexit” is reported as if it’s supposed to mean that we leave and then never ever ever do any sort of deal with anyone, EVER. What nonsense! “No Deal” simply means that FIRST we leave, and THEN we do deals, as an independent nation. We don’t agree beforehand under what terms we’ll leave; we leave and then we deal. That’s what “No Deal” means.

  36. …and if you disagree with me on this and want to part the ways with me, then first I demand that you pay me £1m per year and always continue to speak well of me and promote my posts on here, and then you are free to disagree with me, subject to the above terms, OK?

  37. Gosh, no rabid leftie pro-EU response yet? Let’s froth them up some more then:
    F**k the EU and its socialist, globalist agenda. Garbage. I reject it.
    F**k “climate emergency” – Garbage. Fundamentalist religion, I reject it and will act against it. The sum total of all mankind’s “fossil fuel emmissions” since the 1800s is equivalent to the disruption caused by an ant walking on a football pitch.
    F**k the BBC’s (Brussels Broadcasting Communists) “news” programmes. I reject it and laugh at it.
    F**k “4590 equal genders”. There are men and women, end of. Any attempt to sexually abuse my children with vile leftist filth-stench education will be rigorously stamped down on and rejected. My children will be taught just what kind of vile evil beings these leftists are and why they are attempting to poison their minds at such a young age. Rejected.
    F**k anti-semistism, so often disguised as “legitimate criticism of Israel”. Rejected. Israel, although not perfect, is the only democracy in the Middle East, surrounded by rabid primitive countries infected by the vomit-stench of the religion of bomb-strewn body pieces, whose only raison d’etre is a psychotic hatred of Israel, and is responsible for just about every terrorist attack in Europe. Garbage, rejected.

    In short, EU: Garbage. Rejected.
    Leftism: Garbage. Rejected.
    Anti-Israel: Garbage. Rejected.

  38. In fairness though, I quite like a few of Billy Bragg’s songs.

  39. tell us what you really feel

  40. bottom line is if your politicians in a majority don’t care what the people think.

  41. I have two words to say.

    F**K BREXIT 🇪🇺

  42. lol

  43. “As Nigel Farage remarked several years ago, “you can’t put a fag paper between [the policies of Lab/Con/Lib/Gree/etc]”. When you can’t see any difference between them, then they may as well be the same party. And I say that that’s because in reality they ARE the same party.”

    If you can’t see any difference between them its because you aren’t looking hard enough. Ultimately there are substantial policy differences (even on Brexit) between the four parties you mentioned.

    “I’ve also observed how the EU has operated in Greece in recent years and I see the same broad tactics applied to the UK now. Conclusion: The EU is the puppetmaster of all the mainstream parties, it just doesn’t want that curtain to drop yet.”

    And how does the EU go about maintaining that control?

    “Any REAL Brexit requires a total annihilation of all the legacy political parties, that much is clear to me. None of them want a real Brexit, they’re just pretending they do. It’s a sham, a farce.”

    That’s because a “real” Brexit would be economically suicidal, and potentially risk the peace in Northern Ireland. There has yet to be any realistic proposals for Brexit that solve the issue of the border in Ireland.

    “bottom line is if your politicians in a majority don’t care what the people think.”

    The majority of politicians care what the people think. They also care about the economy, healthcare, education, peace, law and order etc… all of which can be potentially negatively impacted by Brexit. Politicians are representatives, not delegates. The represent our interests, not simply advocate our opinions.

  44. Judged by their actions, Theresa May and her civil servants in Downing St regard themselves as loyal to the EU.

  45. Probably my most repeated comment online these last few days.

    Brexit Party candidates and supporters are not nearly as obsessed with Nigel Farage as we are supposed to be and that is not nearly as much as our opponents are. They seem to be focused on “get Nigel”. We are focused on democracy and Brexit.

    I take it we can take you down as a definite Pete! 😉

  46. Hello Aileen. It’s good to see you and I hope things are well.

    I’m so definite I’ll be voting Brexit Party as many times as I can. You’re right about Farage. The BBC and Channel 4 are so obsessed with him that they made fools of themselves this week with silly attempted gotchas.

    The Westminster political/media bubble has no idea what’s going on. It’s not Farage but the urgent requirement to make a vote mean something.

  47. Pete

    Glad to hear – although not encouraging voter fraud of course.

    Read your ballot paper very very carefully. 😉