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WELL DONE TO THE LABOUR PARY

By Pete Moore On June 7th, 2019

So Labour held Peterborough after the last Labour MP for the place was sent to prison. The winning margin, over The Brexit Party, was a few hundred votes, or one Labour postal vote envelope. And what odds it overcame.

Armed with only decades of electoral and polling data on every house in the constituency, a suspiciously large postal vote (and we know what that euphemism means), and helped by a man previously sent to prison for rigging an election in Peterborough, Labour managed to score a decisive 31 per cent of the vote. Which, erm, is a bit lower than the 48 per cent it got at the General Election.

Nevertheless, the might of The Brexit Party, launched two months ago and with no infrastructure or data, was overcome. Labour’s on a roll, it’s not really a calamitous drop in support nine years into an unConservative government, and yet another antisemite is in the Commons. No wonder the Left is happy.

41 Responses to “WELL DONE TO THE LABOUR PARY”

  1. So what you are saying that despite Labour running an antisemite, the election being caused by a Labour MP being the first ever person kicked out of Parliament by popular petition, despite a very negative few weeks for the Labour Party, despite it being one of the most Leave seats in the UK, and despite hugely disproportionate media coverage of the Brexit Party … the Brexit Party still didn’t win.

  2. Magnificent spin Pete:

    This is Brexit Country

    We Said This Would Happen

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

    You post on a thread where a number of hate groups refer to ‘Zionist rats’

    If that defines anti Semitism does it mean that as the Aberdonian frequently uses such language and worse here every ATW commentator can hastag #Je suisLisaForbes?

  3. No Seamus. I’m saying that The Brexit Party was on 0% two months ago. Yesterday it was one stuffed enveloped away from beating the incumbent party.

  4. “I’m saying that The Brexit Party was on 0% two months ago.”

    And two weeks ago it was on 39% in Peterborough. While Labour were on 22%. That’s what a 9-10% swing from the Brexit Party to Labour in the space of a fortnight. They’re in freefall.

  5. Peterborough voted 60% Leave in 2016, so this seat should have been won by Brexit. It’s clear that Farage poses a greater threat to the Tories than he does to Labour, at least for now.

    But it was a triumph for our unfair voting system. The winning candidate got 31% of the votes cast on a miserable turnout of 48%. Where is that Brexit surge of anger that Farage is always spouting about?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48532869

  6. What did the Brexit Party offer leavers that UKIP didn’t?

    Weren’t you splitting your own movement?

  7. It is largely same offer, minus the out and out crazies and complete dysfunction that was UKIP.

  8. What did the Brexit Party offer leavers that UKIP didn’t?

    Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson Phantom.

    The BP is the Nige’s latest vehicle to attempt tu fulfill his long held ambition of being a professional politician in his own national Parliament.

  9. Phantom

    UKIP are finished, they got 1% of the votes last night (see my link at 7.23 pm).

    They have descended into a muslim-hating racist rabble. Good riddance.

  10. Thanks guys

  11. Here is why last night should scare the Tories:

    “Politics may seem to be deeply confusing at present, but in fact there is one very stark conclusion to come out of the Peterborough by-election – that while Labour and the Conservatives are both deeply unpopular, the Labour vote remains more tribal than that of the Conservatives and will hold up better in a general election…

    But Labour seems to enjoy the support of significant numbers of people who will ultimately vote for the party, however much it offends, because that is what they have always done and cannot imagine themselves ever doing anything else. To put it bluntly, Labour’s secret weapon is that its voters are emotionally more conservative than are those of the Conservatives. Maybe they should swap names.

    For the Conservatives, the message could not be clearer: their survival depends on staving off that general election until Brexit is clearly out of the way and has been neutralised as an issue. Their only option now is to elect a leader who is committed to carrying through with Brexit on 31st October, deal or no deal. Any Conservative MPs who cannot stomach that should give up and go home – or join the Lib Dems.”

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/labours-victory-in-peterborough-should-terrify-the-tories/

  12. The UK electorate is split roughly 50-50 between Leave and Remain, as it was in 2016. But it seems that the Remainers’ desire to remain is stronger than the Leavers’ desire to leave. Also, the typical Farage supporter is over 50, lives in southern England and is financially insulated against the economic risks of a no-deal Brexit (now supported by 70% of Tory Party members):

    ” It is commonly assumed that Leave supporters want to leave the EU — regardless of the type of Brexit — more than Remain supporters want to remain. But a new YouGov survey of over 1,600 British citizens carried out by academic researchers shows it is wrong. In fact, the opposite is true.

    While 33 per cent of the country now want a no-deal Brexit, 42 per cent say it is their least-favourite outcome. Our survey also shows that support for the Brexit Party is higher among financially comfortable voters — adding to previous research showing that support for no-deal is also higher in that group…”

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/everything-you-think-you-know-about-leavers-and-remainers-wrong

  13. Peter –

    YouGov is not to be trusted on Brexit/EU polling. Two weeks ago it was found to be hiding The Brexit Party as a choice. Respondents had to click on “Other” to find it. YouGov has always been an establishment weapon and is very much pro-EU.

  14. “Two weeks ago it was found to be hiding The Brexit Party as a choice. Respondents had to click on “Other” to find it.”

    It wasn’t hiding the Brexit Party. The Brexit Party, as you said, was founded two months ago. At the time it had no elected representatives at any level (they had some representatives elected under other labels). So yes they were an “Other” party.

  15. It also overestimated Brexit Party support by 7%.

  16. Seamus –

    They were hidden under “Other” while the minor parties were on the front page. And that’s that.

    In other news, a Labour MP tweets. Admittedly a gobshite Labour MP, but a Labour MP nonetheless –

    Jess Phillips
    ‏Verified account @jessphillips
    14h14 hours ago

    Woke up to news of Peterborough win. Glad that Brexit Party didn’t win and am in awe of my Labour colleagues who ran a tough campaign well. But the reality is I cannot be gleeful or proud as I’d want to be because of how it shows that antisemitism is becoming normal in the party

    “Anti-semitism is becoming normal in the party”

  17. “They were hidden under “Other” while the minor parties were on the front page. And that’s that.”

    No they weren’t. People are offered Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrats or Other. If you select Other then you were offered the SNP/Plaid, UKIP, Green, Brexit Party or Change UK.

  18. Seamus –

    You’re agreeing with me. The Brexit Party was hidden while the minor parties – Tory, al-Labour and Lib Dem – were on the front page.

  19. The Brexit Party is as minor a party as it gets. No MPs. No councilors. Lost to an in crisis Labour Party in a Brexit heartland seat.

  20. The Remainers desire to cheat the Referendum result is greater than the means that Leavers have to enforce the result – and that is democracy

  21. “The Remainers desire to cheat the Referendum result is greater than the means that Leavers have to enforce the result – and that is democracy”

    The referendum result is irrelevant. The version of Brexit as sold during the referendum is impossible. As such the result is undeliverable and should be ignored.

  22. Labour threw a huge amount of resource into Peterborough and they had months to plan it and they held on by a whisker. That resource will not be available in a general election to Labour MPs defending in constituencies that voted Leave in 2016, especially if Brexit has been delivered by the Tories despite Labour opposition.

    There will almost certainly be a general election this year and it’s all to play for in a way that it hasn’t been since there was genuine three party politics in the 1920s and (briefly) in the 1980s. Now it appears that we have four-party politics in England with each party on roughly 25%. But the unfair electoral system could deliver an overall majority to a party which gets as little as 30% of the votes cast, provided they are cast efficiently. It will be a people’s version of PR with massive tactical voting, aided and abetted by various apps, and they will all be playing the same game. If it works there will be a proportional parliament, i.e. 30% of the votes will win 30% of the seats, not 55%.

  23. “That resource will not be available in a general election to Labour MPs defending in constituencies that voted Leave in 2016, especially if Brexit has been delivered by the Tories despite Labour opposition.”

    It also won’t be a by-election and thus more prone to a protest vote in a general election. Additional Farage has visited Peterborough regularly over the last few weeks so they have put more resources into the seat than they will be able to in a general election.

    Additionally I don’t think that there is a version of Brexit that can command the entire Tory Party’s support. So it is unlikely that any version of Brexit can be achieved without Labour support.

  24. Additional Farage has visited Peterborough regularly over the last few weeks so they have put more resources into the seat than they will be able to in a general election.

    The Brexit Party has only existed for three months and had no organisation or databanks to draw on. Despite that, it came within 700 votes of winning last night.

    The general election is months away. They have time to organise and they know all about using social media as the Leave campaign did so well in 2016. If there is a general election before Brexit has been delivered by the Tories they face a bloodbath at the hands of Farage and they know it. Johnson’s best hope is to deliver Brexit by 31 October (deal or no deal) followed by an election in February in which Labour will be painted as Brexit saboteurs and Farage’s fox will have been shot. Good luck with that one.

    If it’s a no-deal Brexit in October the Tories may have shored up their Brexit flank but their Lib-Dem flank could cost them plenty.

  25. A former Labour MP comments –

    Simon Danczuk
    ‏Verified account @SimonDanczuk

    One reason Labour are quiet on anti-Semitism is because it plays strongly in the Asian Muslim vote, just like they wouldn’t be critical of the grooming perpetrators. It’s all about votes. These are facts.

    Let’s be honest; the inflexion point for British politics now is that you’re either for liberation and democracy, or for anti-semitism and mass racial rape.

  26. Ah yes Pete, Simon Danczuk, a totally balanced comentator on the Labour Party, no question about it:

    “In December 2015, he was suspended from the Labour Party following allegations of sending sexually explicit text messages to a 17-year-old girl.[2] A critic of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, he resigned from the party in May 2017 after being blocked from standing as a Labour candidate. After losing his seat at the 2017 general election, he ruled out a return to politics.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Danczuk

  27. Let’s be honest; the inflexion point for British politics now is that you’re either for liberation and democracy, or for anti-semitism and mass racial rape.

    No, the inflection point is Brexit, it’s that simple. But I agree that it stands for respect for democracy. The referendum result needs to be honoured.

  28. The pro-democracy position would be Brexit for Britain, and Remain for Northern Ireland. Any attempt to take Northern Ireland out of the EU against the will of the people is an attack on democracy. The referendum result and the EU elections prove that.

    If you are pro-democracy you would support Northern Ireland remaining.

  29. “Ah yes Pete, Simon Danczuk, a totally balanced comentator on the Labour Party, no question about it:”

    Not to mention a wife beater to boot.

  30. The question on EU membership was put to the voters of the UK collectively. If Scotland, Wales and NI had voted Remain by a margin greater than England voted Leave, Seamus’s contortions would not have been mirrored by Pete, or Peter.

  31. “The question on EU membership was put to the voters of the UK collectively. If Scotland, Wales and NI had voted Remain by a margin greater than England voted Leave, Seamus’s contortions would not have been mirrored by Pete, or Peter.”

    I don’t care about what they do in England. For me the only referendum votes that matter voted 56% Remain, 44% Leave.

  32. If Scotland, Wales and NI had voted Remain by a margin greater than England voted Leave, Seamus’s contortions would not have been mirrored by Pete, or Peter.

    But they would have by the Nige:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

  33. It’s quite astonishing.

    Allan@Abderdeen talks about Jews and its like catnip to the Bolsheviks.

    Labour MPs talk about Jews and the Bolsheviks want to talk about something – anything – else.

  34. Allan is actually commenting here. If Lisa Forbes was being a cunt on ATW we would all probably have a go at her as well.

  35. No you wouldn’t.

    You’d ignore her anti-semitism and smear her opponents. If she stood in your constituency you’d vote for her.

  36. “You’d ignore her anti-semitism and smear her opponents. If she stood in your constituency you’d vote for her.”

    I’ve condemned Labour’s antisemitism problem, and unlike you I am actually sincere about it. I also wouldn’t vote Labour if they stood in my constituency.

  37. The Brexit party is purely a protest party. People wisely do not want them in a governing position. Like all protest parties they will fade away when the issue is finished with.

  38. Pete Moore,

    It’s quite astonishing.

    Allan@Abderdeen talks about Jews and its like catnip to the Bolsheviks.

    Labour MPs talk about Jews and the Bolsheviks want to talk about something – anything – else.

    More lies from Pete Moore.
    Myself and other so-called lefties on here have all condemned the anti-semitism in the Labour party on repeated occasions.

  39. “anti-semitism in the Labour Party” – yeah, right. As with all approved parties, the Labour Party is as jew-controlled as could be possible.

  40. //If Scotland, Wales and NI had voted Remain by a margin greater than England voted Leave, Seamus’s contortions would not …//

    Actually, they did. NI voted Remain by 56%, and Scotland by 62%, each of which is higher than the Leave majority in England.

  41. Here is why taking an openly pro-Remain stance could be electoral suicide for Labour, from a Labour Leaver:

    “The electoral reality is that the Remain vote is quite poorly distributed across the country. It is highly concentrated in a small number of seats. If you imagine the 2005 or 2010 elections, where the Lib Dems got over 20 per cent of the vote but won fewer than 60 seats out of 650, it’s the same kind of distribution we’re talking about for ardent Remainers. They are not a small number of people, but where they live doesn’t translate into a large number of seats in the country.

    The vast majority of parliamentary constituencies – indeed, the majority of Labour-held parliamentary constituencies – voted Leave. Some political scientists make a distinction between Leave voters and Labour voters and, of course, the Labour electorate doesn’t translate exactly into the Leave electorate. But it is nonetheless true that Labour is competing to keep hold of voters in areas where most people voted Leave. Not only that, it is also trying to win seats in a context where the vast majority of key marginal seats in England and Wales – the difference between a Labour government and a Conservative government – voted Leave. If Labour is not competitive in those seats then it has no hope of forming a government – potentially not even a minority government.

    Of the seats that the Conservatives won in 2017 by fairly small margins – margins of 3,000 votes or less – around 80 per cent of them are Leave seats. I have one of those seats near where I live in Lancaster: Morecambe has a majority of just over 1,000 and voted heavily to leave the EU. Jeremy Corbyn was there a few months ago, which shows that some in Labour recognise the importance of seats like this. Nearby there is Blackpool, a marginal seat and very heavily Leave-voting area.”

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/06/07/labour-cant-win-without-leave-voters/