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A GOOD WEEK TO BURY BAD NEWS

By Pete Moore On September 5th, 2019

Mark Carney let slip this pearler while everyone’s looking elsewhere –

The bad news is all Carney’s, who has never been right about anything. Of course their prediction were wrong. They are always wrong.

14 Responses to “A GOOD WEEK TO BURY BAD NEWS”

  1. Unlike yourself who’s never wrong Pete.

    It’s good that GDP will only fall by 5.5 instead of 8% and that unemployment could increase by 7 and inflation peak at 5.25% though.

  2. They won’t, Paul.

    But I would vote to become a sovereign, independent and self-governing nation even if I knew that this would happen. Even if I knew I would suffer financially. Our sovereignty is not for sale, nor will it be offered up for GDP data points.

    I pity those who would sell their birthrights so cheaply.

  3. Pete

    Me too ! That is what some people just do not seem to understand.

    Maybe we could lend, Carny to the Germans, they seem to be in a spot of bother, BREXIT or no BREXIT.

  4. They won’t, Paul.

    Pete, if that’s as accurate as you previous predicitions Britain’s well up the proverbial Swanny.

  5. “Of course their prediction were wrong. They are always wrong.”

    So his prediction that “things aren’t as bad as we thought” is wrong?

  6. I pity those who would sell their birthrights so cheaply.

    *Cough! Irish passport! Cough!*

    What’ll happen to your Irish passport after Brexit, Pete? Into the bin, or will you hang on to it, ‘just in case’?

  7. Seamus –

    Every prepper knows that two is one and one is none. You never know when it might come in handy.

  8. So you’re hedging your bets then? I take it that if (when?) Brexit goes tits-up, your name will change to Peadar Ó Mordha and you’ll move to Ballyferriter?

    So much for the patriotic, “But I would vote to become a sovereign, independent and self-governing nation even if I knew that this would happen. Even if I knew I would suffer financially….I pity those who would sell their birthrights so cheaply” nonsense.

    (By the way, it’s Seimi. Seamus is the even more clever one who knows all the political stuff)

  9. No, it’s just in case the foreigner’s queue at passport control is faster than the British one. I can’t stand hanging around in airports.

  10. No, it’s just in case the foreigner’s queue at passport control is faster than the British one. I can’t stand hanging around in airports.

    So it’s no longer for your safety in the event of trouble, like it used to be? It’s just for convenience? Some patriotic ‘Englishman’ you are. Anyway, I thought you Brits were good at queuing?

  11. Pete you wish you were only wrong as often as Mark Carney, it would be a marked improvement on your batting average

  12. “It’s good that GDP will only fall by 5.5 instead of 8% and that unemployment could increase by 7 and inflation peak at 5.25% though.”

    I can find no detail on these forecasts, but if it’s anything like others, it’s not true that GDP would fall. In general these forecasts talk about foregone growth compared to the alternative case. So, it’s usually more like ‘GDP would grow 5% less than it would otherwise over 10 years’ (and with huge uncertainty about that number).

    I’m not sure where this 5% is coming from either because before all this the estimate of all benefits from the EU were on the level of about 3%. And all these forecasts assume that nothing else will change, whereas it really depends what the policy response is, what you do about it. Before the referendum Open Europe had numbers that ranged from a modest negative to a modest positive (about 1% either way, depending on the policy response).

    Now even 3 or 5% of the whole economy in lost gains over 10 years is a mahoosive amount of money but it’s far less scary than saying the economy would shrink. As long as the remainers are saying that I don’t want to hear about any slogans on a bus.

    And even if we took it as that, what would that mean? It means maybe going back to the levels of what, 4 or 5 years ago. After all, who can forget the great famine of 2015.

    The question should also be asked – why should it involve any impact at all? The UK and the EU are currently in perfect regulatory alignment. That is *not* the same as some random third country. And nothing about that changes until either side changes it. All border checks etc can literally carry on exactly as they do now. The widgets on the pallet are the same widgets made to the same rules the day after an exit as they are the day before.

  13. // It means maybe going back to the levels of what, 4 or 5 years ago. After all, who can forget the great famine of 2015.//

    But economists, especially conservative economists, have always argued for the absolute need for Growth. (something I never really understood, I admit).
    If we don’t have continuing growth, they say, then our goose is truly cooked.

    (I imagine it’s something related to the apparent fact on the micro level that a business has to maintain its market share, and even if it continues to post healthy profits in real figures, it will still go bust if it’s products are losing their proporational appeal in the market.)

    If so, then stagnation or a recession post-Brexit would seem to be bad news for everyone indeed, regardless of how well we were living in 2015.

  14. There are more people now than in 2015. So the same GDP now as there was in 2015 would actually be smaller GDP per capita than in 2015. People are unlikely to die but living standards will be lower.

    In terms of the checks argument the UK will be a random third country. That is the international legal precedent. As the UK wouldn’t have a free trade agreement with the European Union then the EU will have to treat the UK as it treats every other country (ie checks, tariffs etc…). To not do so would open the EU up to legal action at the World Trade Organisation. The same applies for the UK vis-à-vis trade from the EU.