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REMEMBER WHEN

By Pete Moore On September 14th, 2019

I’m so old I remember when we assumed that Remainers were honest.

Now David Cameron has broken cover to say that a second referendum might be necessary to because the country is “stuck”. No, it’s not stuck. Parliament is stuck, and it’s stuck on trying to overturn our decision.

Yet another referendum is such a bad idea that it boggles the mind. There are no words to describe how bad an idea it is. How can advocates of a another referendum not see what will happen if there is one? How can they be so blind? Or, if they do see, how can they regard that as a desirable series of events? Are they relying on prominent Leavers taking the idea seriously, to mollify a country so outraged that it would be boycotted. Are they assuming that there would be no violence, and that we’d just carry on? I think maybe it’s the latter. I’ve just heard Ed Davey MP, the deputy leader of a small band called the Lib Dems, on LBC. Like all hardcore EU fanatics he knows exactly why we voted to leave. He said that it’s because many people felt neglected, forgotten and left behind by politics. Then in the breath he said that their vote must be nullified and overturned. They really are that blind to themselves and the consequences. The only way – the only possible way – that we can move on is to leave in a manner acceptable to those that won the EU referendum. Those opposed can fight to rejoin later if they like. That would itself be a form of moving on. But first we must leave.

118 Responses to “REMEMBER WHEN”

  1. //The only way – the only possible way – that we can move on is to leave in a manner acceptable to those that won the EU referendum. //

    How do you know that leaving the SM and the CU and without any deal is acceptable to most who voted Leave?

    And how do you know that there was not at least 2 pc within that group that would have preferred to remain rather than undergo a crash-out exit?

  2. If we need to honour the result of the referendum we need to also respect the fact that government has the responsibility of implementing it. Therefore Parliament should revisit (yes I know its the 4th time) and ratify the Withdrawal Agreement.

  3. How do you know that leaving the SM and the CU and without any deal is acceptable to most who voted Leave?

    Indeed. I know of at least one ardent leaver who wanted to remain in the CU and SM:

    The Single Market is the EEA, the European Economic Area. No-one is proposing to leave it, no-one is campaigning to leave it, and the UK will not leave it. The referendum is about whether or not the UK will remain in the EU. The question has nothing to do with the Single Market.

    That’s honesty for you!

  4. And that was honestly right too, because no-one was proposing it at the time. If they were then someone would have liked to it, but no-one did.

    Then the Remain campaign saw that the polls weren’t giving it the lead it assumed. Project Fear was extended to warn us that leaving the EU meant leaving the SU and CU. The chief campaigners began to repeat it at every opportunity. So we all knew what we were voting for.

    How do you know that leaving the SM and the CU and without any deal is acceptable to most who voted Leave?

    – Because that was Remain’s final position. That’s the promise they made.

    – Because we are all racists and xenophobes, and staying in the SM means uncontrolled immigration.

    – Because the central theme of the Leave campaign was taking back control of our money, borders and laws. A clean Brexit delivers that.

  5. https://twitter.com/ChrisOram1990/status/1172429986243870720

  6. And that was honestly right too, because no-one was proposing it at the time.

    Yeah, ‘at the time’ It wasn’t suggested unti after the referendum result when

    No-one is proposing to leave it, no-one is campaigning to leave it, and the UK will not leave it

    Became

    Leave means leave

    Peerless dishonesty.

  7. Parliament is stuck, and it’s stuck on trying to overturn our decision.

    No it isn’t. It’s stuck on trying to implement your decision. The fact that your decision came with no instructions included is why they are stuck.
    Seriously, do you ever get tired of making things up?

  8. Forgot that nobody reads the links, so a highlight from that link:

    Voters – including Leave supporters – said they now judge that existing EU rules provide “enough control” on incomers from the continent, without the need for the UK to pull out.

    Far from demanding an immigration crackdown, no less than 71% support allowing EU migrants to come to the UK either to work or study – including 62% of Leave voters from 2016

    The great lies of the referendum were nothing to do with any bus and didn’t come from the Leave campaign – among them that leaving the EU means leaving the SM and that this is somehow necessary because FOM is intolerable to leavers. Neither was true then and neither is true now.

    All they needed to do was to enforce the existing rules, which they can also do within EFTA/EEA and that would implement the result.

  9. You fear a second referendum because it is obvious you will lose and lose big

    A vague question with out knowledge of consequences is hardly binding once the consequences become known

  10. “Are they assuming that there would be no violence, and that we’d just carry on? I think maybe it’s the latter.” You should calm down. Your hysterical prophesy of violence is OTT.

    If there is a no-deal outcome and shortages of food and medicine then violence would be likely. But not if a bunch of hot heads are disappointed.

  11. Exactly. The Pro Brexiteers have never managed to get more than a few hundred people on any of their public marches and even then all they get are the knuckle draggers looking for a fight. If we don’t leave the EU there will be no trouble on the streets at all. A lot of people will grumble but there is absolutely no burning passionate mass desire for Brexit. Hong Kong isn’t coming to the UK.

  12. EP –

    We reject another referendum because it’s an absurd idea, promoted only to overturn our decision. Those pushing it are cheats, liars and anti-democrats. We won’t play their game.

    The question was correct, simply in or out. It was a constitutional question on a constitutional matter, i.e. where does power lie?

    The question of a withdrawal agreement or not is a policy matter which follows the constitutional matter.

    EP and New Yorker –

    In the end you could have prevented this by telling us about your chronic shortages of food and medicine outside of the EU.

    Why didn’t you warn us?

  13. Pete

    So you agree that if the withdrawal agreement passed through Parliament and was implemented it would be the correct procedural completion of the referendum instruction ?

  14. Colm –

    As long as the outcome meets with the standard of leaving the EU it would be a procedure within the bounds of the constitution, though not the only one. Parliament could have just left it to government, or it could have simply repealed the ECA 1972.

    Do you agree with me that Emerald Pimpernel and New Yorker should have warned us of the food and medicine shortages they suffer outside of the EU?

  15. No I don’t agree with you because their countries have never been in the EU. The situation is not the same. We may have food and medicine shortages for a period of time due to practical non preparedness regarding an immediate no deal exit, not as a permanent consequence of leaving the EU.

  16. PS , if Parliament had left it to Government we would have left under May’s Withdrawal Agreement. We would. It be in the transition period and hopefully having fruitful negotiations towards a long term close free trade partnership. I think it is a mistake we didn’t go down that route.

  17. Pete Moore

    “Why didn’t you warn us?” It was the responsibility of the pro-Brexit campaigners to warn you. But it was a con job where everything would be better with no negative consequences. And, you foolishly believed them.

  18. Perhaps the leave supporters theme song should have been “Somewhere over the rainbow…

  19. Pete and all the rest of the Leave supporters are desperately trying to blame the problems caused bt the decision to leave the EU on the people who wanted to Remain. Its laughable. Its like blaming the victim for being robbed.

  20. Do you agree with me that Emerald Pimpernel and New Yorker should have warned us of the food and medicine shortages they suffer outside of the EU?

    How many of EP’s and NY’s food and medicine come from / through the EU?

  21. I will remind you that there are Massive air and water trade links between the UK and USA

    In the unlikely event that there are shortages of anything You are welcome buy from us

    There are no legitimate reasons for any shortages of stuff coming into the UK – you control the traffic in that direction

  22. There are no legitimate reasons for any shortages of stuff coming into the UK

    ‘Operation Yellowhammer’ disagrees Phantom.

    You control the traffic in that direction

    In the event of a no deal WTO rules will control traffic in that direction.

    In the unlikely event that there are shortages of anything You are welcome buy from us

    Unlikely event? What are you basing this prediction on? Anyhow:

    https://www.drugwatch.com/featured/us-drug-prices-higher-vs-world/

  23. There are no legitimate reasons for any shortages of any kind. End of

    And the price that are US pharmaceutical charges for drugs that they export is not necessarily the same as the price that they will charge for domestic rip off . In any market, they charge what they can get away with

    I strongly believe that the US pharmaceuticals will charge a higher price for many drugs that they sell in the US, as opposed to what they charge for their exports of the same drug to Canada- This is what Bernie Sanders has been complaining about for ages

  24. Even if Brexit had only been decided by voters today, With withdrawal from the EU Happening seven weeks from today, there would still be no valid reasons for food or drug shortages

    I smell 100 million rats in this yellowhammer argument

  25. Phantom

    Its not about shortage of product, its simply about the sudden unprepared for change in regulations and the ability to handle extra bureaucracy in situations where constant speedy movement of vast amounts of goods are essential. Its not a permanent shortage.

  26. There are no legitimate reasons for any shortages of any kind. End of

    The Operation Yellowhammer document HM worst case planning assumptions:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

    WTO rules wil govern imports into Britain. End of.

    I strongly believe that the US pharmaceuticals will charge a higher price for many drugs that they sell in the US

    Your strong beliefs don’t explain why many residents of US border states get their medicines from Canada and Mexico. The logic of your belief would mean that the price in these border states would be lower to match competition from across the boeder.

  27. Well that’s all on the UK side IMO

    The EU Will have no incentive to slow down the flow of goods sold by it

    The UK has had three years to prepare for this

    If they can’t handle this, they can’t handle anything

  28. Paul

    US pharmaceuticals generally sell most of their product to insurance plans or to private / public employers with insurance companies providing technical services. This is done on a national basis

    The pharm companies are well aware of the leakage at the US and Mexican border areas, which would be largely among the many who are uninsured. ( if you are insured there may be no reason to go across the border, if you are insured, the insurance company might not permit such foreign purchases)

    The vast majority of American consumers in the border states do not get prescription filled in Canada or Mexico.

  29. The EU Will have no incentive to slow down the flow of goods sold by it

    It’s absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. It’s telling that you seem to be blaming the EU again although it’s absolutely nothing to do with them:

    WTO rules wil govern imports into Britain. End of.

    The UK has had three years to prepare for this

    Yeah, and the absolute fucking chaos that we see now prior to Brexit shows just how much of a great job they’ve made of it. Your comments above seem to echo the ‘just believe’ rubbish of the uktra Brexiteer.

    I think that in the event of medicine shortages the US pharma business would see the UK as somewhat of a captive market and price accordingly on supply and demand.

  30. I think that you’re missing the big picture

    Many of the drugs now imported via France are made by US pharmaceutical manufacturers in the first place! The rest might be manufactured by European manufacturers who have plants in the United States as well!

    They may need to perhaps temporarily change the Distribution route, But they don’t need to change anything else.

    You may assume that the evil companies will use this as a chance to jack up the price to existing customers. But I don’t see any need for that

    You guys are assuming the worst case scenario in all areas. For Gods sake calm down.

  31. There is no “ absolute fucking chaos “ in the British and European economy today

    There is no valid reason to expect any such thing a month and a half from now

  32. The question isn’t where the drugs are manufactured but their arrival route in the UK.

    You may assume that the evil companies will use this as a chance to jack up the price to existing customers. But I don’t see any need for that

    Then I think that you’re being very naive at how the internation pharma business will react to a newly emerging captive market opportunity.

    You guys are assuming the worst case scenario in all areas. For Gods sake calm down.

    I’m not assuming anything as I don’t know. What I’m basing my opinions on are WTO regulations and I assume that Operation Yellowhammer does the same and no amount of ‘just believe’ will effect those.

  33. It would be a very short term opportunity

    In the business world, you don’t mess with long-term partners in Short term situations.

    I am sure that Merck and Pfizer sell a lot of stuff to the NHS and Bupa. Playing games Would jeopardize the long-term business relationship.

    In the very near future, you will see that I am right, once more.

  34. There is no “ absolute fucking chaos “ in the British and European economy today

    I’m speaking about the absolute fucking chaos in British politics prior to Brexit which have negated them making any preperations for this bollocks up:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46748193

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/dominic-raab-admits-he-did-not-understand-how-reliant-uk-trade-is-on-dover-calais-crossing/

    Doesn’t reallybode well for preperation does it?

  35. In the very near future, you will see that I am right, once more

    Phantom, when it comes to Brexit and the EU your inherent bias dictates that you are seldom if ever right.

  36. It takes two to make a deal, it takes two to not make a deal

    The EU must take its share of the blame for the lack of a deal

    Unless we say that the UK is entirely at fault for everything

  37. “The EU must take its share of the blame for the lack of a deal

    Unless we say that the UK is entirely at fault for everything”

    Phantom two businessmen agree a deal. It is a fair and equitable deal. Both are happy with it. But then at the eleventh hour the second businessman goes back to the first and says no deal. Are they both at fault?

  38. The EU must take its share of the blame for the lack of a deal

    Unless we say that the UK is entirely at fault for everything

    The EU didn’t want the UK to leave. It is not their prerogative to come up with a deal, other than one which suits and protects its member countries, eg Ireland. The UK voted to leave, it’s up to the UK to come up with a way to leave which suits everyone. So far, it hasn’t agreed on a deal, whilst the EU waits to see what it can come up with. But hey – that’s the EU’s fault, right?
    Straight from the P. Moore Big Book of Brexit.

  39. Paul

    You are rabidly and narrow mindedly anti British. In this particular case, you see their case as having no merits, and see the Brits as being responsible for 100 percent of the problems. You see all issues through the prism of anti British grudge.

    I regard the UK, Ireland, and. Europe generally as friends and family. I’ve said that the EU means to be benign, and that the talk of “EUSSR “ is idiotic.

    I have said that the UK must make —all— the concessions in the Irish border matter.

    I have said that each side should approach this in the spirit of reciprocity.

    I said all this for a long time.

  40. Seamus

    Do each of the businessmen have the full authority to make the deal in the first place?

    If they do have the full authority, then you never go back on a handshake deal.

  41. “Do each of the businessmen have the full authority to make the deal in the first place?”

    No. Both have the power to negotiate on behalf of their business. But both most then present the deal to their respective shareholders for approval.

    So in that scenario are both sets of businessmen at fault, or is it the second businessman and his shareholders?

  42. In the case you’ve clearly speak of, I would think that the Conservative British government and parliament of the day bears the more blame

    But again, it takes two to tango

    If there is no deal that both sides can live with, both parties are at fault

  43. I fail to see, in all honesty, what more the EU could have offered the British.

  44. It’s often been said that the British did not know what they wanted in its details

    Then I think that’s clearly correct

    Not to relitigate the past, but for the leave people here, What main problems did you have with the Theresa May Brexit deal

  45. Yes, when a member decides to leave, the EU must abandon its most fundamental rules to facilitate that departing member

    Otherwise it’s partially to blame it there’s no deal; that’s obvious.

  46. What rules are those

  47. The EU must take its share of the blame for the lack of a deal

    Eh? Would you like me to list again how the EU been incredibley patient in attempting to accomodate the UK in their leaving? If not please demonstrate what blame the EU bears for the present fucking chaos.

    You are rabidly and narrow mindedly anti British.

    Yeah, yeah. You’ve lined up with the other three horsemen in spinning this lazy fallacy because I have the audacity to point out their innaccuracies and untruths.

    I have said that each side should approach this in the spirit of reciprocity.

    You have stated this in the context of Britain having equal status and power with the EU so the EU should give it a soft pat on the head. It doesen’t

  48. What rules are those

    These:

    http://www.institutdelors.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/171024jdigrundfreiheitenenwebeinzelseitena4.pdf

  49. If the UK does not have control of its borders, it hasn’t left the EU

  50. That is the major problem. Both sides agree there cannot be a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. The UK is insisting that there cannot be a border between Britain and Northern Ireland. The UK is also insisting that there must be a border between the UK and the European Union.

    Where could there possibly be a border that would facilitate all three of those?

  51. If the UK does not have control of its borders, it hasn’t left the EU

    Okay, do you expect the EU to abandon its most fundamental rules to facilitate that departing member as Noel states above?

  52. // Both sides agree there cannot be a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

    The UK is insisting that there cannot be a border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

    The UK is also insisting that there must be a border between the UK and the European Union.//

    Look, Seamus, it’s obviously the EU’s fault for nor being able to work that contradiction out.

    We all know the British are of one mind on this. They all agree on how and what and when they want to leave. It’s just the EU creating problems in Westminster and confusing the poor British.

  53. Phantom

    Have you read the Yellowhammer memorandum?

    Do you know the European Medicines Agency recently moved from London to Amsterdam?

    It is simplistic to view Brexit and what follows as merely a business deal. There are many other considerations such as food and medicine safety, transport, regulations, to name just a few. The UK is leaving the EU with which it has treaties. The EU is not leaving the UK and it is contrary to EU interests to make it easy for members to leave.

    The UK is acting against its principal interests based on a con job full of lies and appealing to base and spurious Brit instincts.

  54. Phantom makes the same mistake here as most of the U.K. media and the Brexiteers. They regard the deal as a compromise following discussion between two sides at the end of a dispute or conflict on which the two sides barter and auction between themselves and reach compromises. That is not what this was. It was one member of a group wanting to end its membership contract and the group (The EU) outlined the legal contractual obligations required to effect that exit in conjunction with EU treaties and international law.

    The EU have not been harsh or unfair at all and it’s not an issue of give and take. The withdrawal agreement is the legal contract of exit and the accompanying political declaration is the negotiable part which can be conducted in the discussions about a long term future relationship following the legal exit. The U.K. govt cannot expect the EU to drop some of the legal requirements in the W.A. just to make things politically easier for Johnson’s administration.

  55. Of course the EU European Medicines Agency moved ,to the EU.

    That’s logical

    Why does that mean that there should be any medicines problems in the U.K. ( Unless someone chooses to create problems )

    I fear festering problems that will last many decades, problems within Europe and within the UK

    All sides see the other as the cause of all the problems

  56. Why does that mean that there should be any medicines problems in the U.K. ( Unless someone chooses to create problems )

    Yet again, in the event of a no deal:

    WTO rules wil govern imports into Britain. End of.

    No matter how many times it’s explained to you why do you insist on implying the EU will create problems?

  57. “Why does that mean that there should be any medicines problems in the U.K. ( Unless someone chooses to create problems )”

    The UK leaving creates those problems. Currently if the NHS, or a pharmacist, buys medicines from France then that is, for all intents and purposes, not an import. There is no real paperwork. There is no import duty. There is no regulatory checks.

    Post Brexit that medicine is an import. It will have to have import paperwork. It would have to be subject to potential regulatory checks, as well as import duties. And it all has to be done by a group of people who up until then didn’t have to do it.

  58. Paul

    You are exceptionally dense

    I didn’t say that the EU will create trade problems here

    I don’t think there will be a problem at all

    You yellowhammers Are the ones gibbering and jabbering about everyone dying on the streets because of the complete lack of medicines

    Calm down for five minutes For the love of God

  59. Unless someone chooses to create problems

    Who’s someone? I’m not so dense to know what the verb ‘imply’ means though.

    More disingenuousness, even after Colm takes the time to explain it as to a child above.

  60. Paul

    I’m predicting a reasonably smooth transition aided by health and customs people in theUK and EU acting in good faith

    You were the one predicting something completely different.

    In a very short time we will know who is correct

  61. Unless someone chooses to create problems

    So who will ‘choose to create problems?’

    You were the one predicting something completely different.

    What I am doing is stating what the EU, the Brit government, most of the regular contributors here and most of the non partisan commentators I’ve read forecast.

  62. They’re forecasting no such thing

    If there are no riots, Or shortages of food and medicine in the aftermath of Brexit will you concede that you had no idea what you were talking about?

  63. I want to know where the riots will take place, and who will do this rioting, and for what purpose they will be doing it

    Will it be EU nationals now outside the EU?

    Cmon Nostradamus Give me your best shot

  64. They’re forecasting no such thing

    No, of course not. Just Noel, Seimi, Seamus, Colm, Operation Yellowhammer doc etc above.

    If there are no riots, Or shortages of food and medicine in the aftermath of Brexit will you concede that you had no idea what you were talking about?

    No because you’re strawmanning, (yet again) with a riot scenario. I’ve stated that there is a widespread belief that there will be shortages of medicines and some food stuffs in the wake of a no deal Brexit as a result of WTO regulations.

  65. there will be no riots or real shortages except for those that whine on the TV the average citizen will notice nothing…. except they will once again be British… which means a lot.

  66. This smells like a combination of Y2K and Operation Fear

    Oh the horror.

  67. Phantom
    Have you read the Yellowhammer document? Do you know what it is suggesting could happen? Do you know who it was who produced that document?
    Judging by your insistent arguing and attempted derision of Paul on this thread, I’d say the answer to all those questions is ‘no.’

  68. ‘Project Fear’ is yet another of those bolloxology right wing terminologies.

  69. I’ve read at least a good chunk of the document

    What would you like to know?

  70. ‘What would you like to know?’

    Why you’re still persisting with the ‘Project Fear’ nonsense, if you have actually read any of it, let alone a ‘good chunk’ of it?

  71. By the way, for future reference, you don’t do patronising very well.

  72. New Yorker –

    “Why didn’t you warn us?” It was the responsibility of the pro-Brexit campaigners to warn you.

    So Boris Johnson should have told us that you don’t have enough food and medical supplies outside of the EU?

  73. Paul McMahon –

    I’ve stated that there is a widespread belief that there will be shortages of medicines and some food stuffs in the wake of a no deal Brexit as a result of WTO regulations.

    Where is this widespread belief? It’s not in my country.

    And why will there be shortages? Which idiots are going to stop selling us stuff?

  74. Where is this widespread belief? It’s not in my country

    Actually, if you read the press and comments on blogs etc it is.

    Which idiots are going to stop selling us stuff?

    *Sigh,

    WTO rules will govern imports into Britain

    More feigned obstinance as seen above. But you already know that

  75. Paul –

    You want to avoid those papers and blogs. There is no such widespread belief.

    So WTO rules will stop producers selling us stuff? How so?

  76. Pete, your Herculean efforts would shame Gobbels.

    There certainly is such a widespread belief and WTO won’t stop producers selling you stuff.

  77. I explained earlier why there may be shortages for a period after a no deal Brexit for obvious practical reasons.

  78. Colm, You, Seamus and I have explained above why there may be shortages.

    Apparently Phantom & Pete can’t read.

  79. Colm

    Yep

    It’s a big change, and people will get used to it.

    There are many reasons why smart people can and do oppose Brexit , but shortages and Civil disruption are not among them ( unless the U.K. is dumb enough to try for a hard Irish border. )

  80. People will get used to it. But there will be a temporary lag between Brexit and them getting used to it. And in that in between period there is the potential for shortages and disruptions.

  81. It’s a big change, and people will get used to it

    So you concede there may be shortages? What was all the disingenuousness and condescention above all about then?

  82. Boy you sure love to argue

    I think that all your many terrible fears are vastly overblown

    It’ll be OK, really it will

  83. I think that is Phantom’s patronising, condescending way of conceding the argument 🙂

  84. I never said that there would not and could not be problems. I said that I thought that as states that they were very exaggerated

    My point at all times were that you guys were completely freaking out When there was little reason to be doing that

    You are -completely- playing into the hands of the Brexit people

    Save this thread, and come talk to me two months after Brexit happens

  85. Oh fucking catch a grip fpr fuck’s sake.

    I stated what was outlined in the document and by some here, nothing less.

    I think that is Phantom’s patronising, condescending way of conceding the argument

    Yeah, although it’s an improvement on his usual vague nonsense about Poughkeepsie or something.

  86. So you don’t predict riots or civil disruptions?

    And you don’t fear meaningful food or medicine shortages?

    Well then everybody here is on the same page then. Quit arguing with yourself

  87. No, as you can see above I’ve only stated there may well be shortages and disruptions. As a matter of fact I commented on you strawmanning riots above.

    I think the tral reason you get so ornery on these threads is that you don’t like being called out on your sly insinuations of EU bad faith.

  88. I can’t speak for others but I have repeatedly said I don’t believe there will be riots or civil disturbances whether we leave with no deal or as some Brexiteers threaten, we stay in the EU.

  89. Paul

    I believe that you’re a big fan of the yellowhammer report

    It spoke of civil disruption

    I recommend that you give it a good read

  90. I did give it a good read. Please direct above to where I claimed there would be riots or anything apart from WTO rules causing shortages.

    You really are a slippery one sometimes.

  91. I did give it a good read. Please direct above to where I claimed there would be riots or anything apart from WTO rules causing shortages.

    You really are a slippery one sometimes.

  92. Brexit is a very complex matter and there is little, if any, evidence that serious planning has been done to execute it with any degree of success. It is only weeks away and many important issues are still unsettled. The UK imports most of its meat, yet is not known how this important and perishable commodity will get into the UK. It is difficult to see how it will be anything but a disaster. Nobody is even sure when parliament will next meet.

  93. NY

    Serious comment

    Wouldn’t Irish and French meat be allowed in as it is now, with the already given Irish / French inspection method be accepted as proper by the UK?

    Why would there be any need to reinvent that particular wheel?

    And vice versa for British ag exports to the EU?

  94. Phantom

    I have a beef farm in Ireland. My understanding is that beef from the ROI entering the UK will have to be inspected by vets and the same with UK beef entering the ROI. Most of the trade is from the ROI into the UK. As it stands now inspections will be required to assure safety and registration of the animals. There is a slight possibility some ROI-UK agreement can be worked out whereby the ROI-UK border will be in the Irish Sea but the unionists on NI strongly object to that proposal. A number of years ago there was a disease called foot and mouth and both the ROI and the UK instituted strong measures in an attempt to keep foot and mouth out of their countries. When foot and mouth was detected the animal had to be put down and thousands met that fate and it caused significant financial harm.

    I think you are underestimating what is involved in marketing meat into a foreign country, ie, one which there are no agreed treaties. And, meat is just one of thousands of products. The UK gets many of its vegetables and fruits from southern and central Europe and trade treaties will not exist post Brexit. And, that is just food, other problems will occur with chemicals, forestry products, pharmaceuticals, manufactured goods, etc, etc. International trade is a complex undertaking.

  95. Noted

  96. Interesting comment, NY.

    I have to say that my instinct is that there won’t be serious disruption after Brexit.

    But my instinct is also that there will be no hard Brexit, and maybe no Brexit at all at Hallowe’en.

    Yesterday, the LibDems voted by a large majority to prevent any kind of Brexit.

    But, yes, we know, they aren’t real British people at all, just Brussels puppets etc.

  97. Phantom

    Is your ‘noted’ a tacit acceptance that those here you have been arguing against are right ?

  98. Colm

    It’s acknowledgement that of what NY says, from his position of knowledge.

    I don’t believe that the yellowhammer worst case scenario will happen, for multiple reasons, including that the UK intends to have low, not high import tariffs.

    The UK can and should choose to have exceptionally minimal checks from trusted EU sources until the. UK trade guys get up to speed, if need be.

    This does sound a bit like Y2K, when some until the last minute predicted severe technological disruption of industry and life, and where the average person knew that no such thing would happen.

    We’ll see.

  99. I don’t think it’s an appropriate analogy to compare it to Y2K which was a theoretical supposition about how computer systems would behave on a specific date. This is a known legal change where the rules and freedoms of a single market cease to apply for trade between the U.K. and the EU and all goods trade changes to the rules that apply to third country status. It’s not a theoretical experiment it’s a practical reality.

  100. //We’ll see.//

    We probably won’t.

    The UK parliament is very much against a hard Brexit.
    So if the UK leaves with a deal and there’s no major disruption, people like Pete Moore and Phantom will feel vindicated, while those warning of danger will also be able to say they were right and they knew a deal was needed.

    BTW, I never imagined New Yorker as the, er, beefy guy. I always thought him the wiry intellectual type.

  101. I too am surprised to hear he has a beef farm in Ireland. I always had the impression he was an ex pat working in some sort of office or finance desk based job in the States.

  102. Yes But if we’re talking about the flow of goods from the EU into the UK, the EU has no motive to slow the flow down And neither does the UK.

    I’d think that the UK has a lot of tools available to it to keep goods coming in – including having no checks on imports from the EU, for a time.

  103. I thought he said once he was in education, curriculum design or school admin. or stuff like that. But maybe I err.

    There’s a nice phrase in Ireland: “Beef to the heels like a Mulingar heifer”, usually referring to a stout lady with plenty of “maet” on her…er… calves.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=beef%20to%20the%20heels%2C%20like%20a%20mullingar%20heifer

  104. But in any case, let’s wish him success in whatever venture he’s in, and hope Ireland doesn’t suffer too much from this *#§&%$§ Brexit.
    My cousins (about 17 of them) are dairy and beef farmers in Cavan. They are normally very placid people, but they last time we met the only topic was Brexit and they were literally jumping up and down in their seats with rage.

    //the EU has no motive to slow the flow down And neither does the UK.//

    If the EU starts checks, which they will have to do in the case of a no-deal, the UK might feel obliged to reciprocate.

  105. The EU has no motive to slow the flow down And neither does the UK.

    Once again, the disruption is envisaged because of WTO regulation protocol.

    Haven’t heard that one before Noel but I have heard ‘maet’ I’ve a friend from Cullaville in South Armargh and one of his favourites is ‘claen maet nivir fattened a sow’

  106. As New Yorker highlights there is a requirement in law to maintain sanitary and phytosanitary checks on all animals and animal products entering the EU.

    Currently of you move anything from cattle to ready meals from the UK to ROI or vice versa there are no real checks outside of major crises (BSE saw checks in place, foot and mouth).

    Post Brexit there will need, by law, to be SPS checks on all animals, animal products and anything containing animal products when it crosses the border. It is hugely disruptive. And could potentially be destructive to the just-in-time market, where they don’t have the extra couple of hours or days to go through this.

  107. We have a perfectly fine system for importing and exporting goods between the U.K. and all our European neighbours. Why the hell don’t we just leave it alone and keep to whatever agreements are required t ensure no change to rather smooth and efficient way things are working now.

  108. Colm

    “Why the hell don’t we just leave it alone and keep to whatever agreements are required to ensure no change to rather smooth and efficient way things are working now.” Exactly. But the headcase Brexiteers must be placated.

    Noel and Colm

    I am a born and bred New Yorker who owns family property in Ireland which mainly raises beef cattle. I have local people manage operations for me. I am on-site a few months and otherwise supervise remotely. The agricultural industry is in bad shape in Ireland. Beef farmers are being squeezed by the factories both north and south. In the north Single Farm Payment will go away with Brexit making it impossible for smaller farmers without other jobs to survive.

    Colm

    You are correct that the Y2K analogy is not appropriate. If Brexit happens the negative effects will be all too real. I am not as complacent as others on there being no civil disturbances. If there are food shortages people will soon be hungry and hungry people can do ugly things. I have read that some people have already been hoarding essentials which, if true, is an ominous development.

    Phantom

    “I’d think that the UK has a lot of tools available to it to keep goods coming in – including having no checks on imports from the EU, for a time.” How would you like to eat dicey horse-meat marketed as beef? What about knock-off pharmaceuticals smuggled in from Eastern Europe? No checks would be a disaster. Again, you fail to appreciate the complexity of the issue.

  109. New Yorker

    While I share your view that there will be negative consequences to a no deal Brexit I don’t think we need to go into the realms of unbelievable exaggeration by claiming people will go hungry because their literally won’t be enough food of any type to eat. That is absurd and will not happen. We are not about to be struck by an apocalyptic post Brexit famine with Brits running out into the streets fighting over food parcels dropped from UN helicopters !!

  110. “How would you like to eat dicey horse-meat marketed as beef? What about knock-off pharmaceuticals smuggled in from Eastern Europe?”

    These checks are either already happening or they aren’t needed. Either the stuff arriving at the border is known to originate from the EU or it isn’t. If it originates from the EU then it’s still made to the same standards the day after exit as it is today. Those are considered good enough today so there is no regulatory need to check them until those standards diverge to something unacceptable. If it doesn’t originate from the EU, or there’s some doubt about it, then that’s also true today and nothing about staying in the single market removes the need to check where the goods are from.

    “I have read that some people have already been hoarding essentials”

    Which makes yellowhammer and the like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even if there isn’t a shortage, telling people there will be is enough to soon create one.

  111. Yes

    and

    Yes

  112. //Either the stuff arriving at the border is known to originate from the EU or it isn’t. If it originates from the EU then it’s still made to the same standards the day after exit as it is today. Those are considered good enough today so there is no regulatory need to check them until those standards diverge to something unacceptable.//

    Why then doesn’t the UK government come out and say simply that there will be no additional checks after Brexit, that things at the ports will stay as they are?

    Instead of getting us all worried by issuing these Yellowhammer things.

    And someone should tell the Institute of Government, because it is still saying:

    For the UK, ‘taking back control’ of its borders is likely to mean the introduction of checks for goods arriving from the EU. For the Ports of Dover and Holyhead and the Channel Tunnel, which have adapted to EU membership and between them account for almost half of all the UK’s trade in goods by value, the number of customs checks could increase by a hundredfold. International agreements mean that there are certain requirements that the UK must meet at its border; there is no option of simply deciding to give EU goods preferential treatment without a deal between the two. That also makes a deal critical to managing the specific set of challenges faced at the Irish border.

    The introduction of border checks between the UK and the EU could happen overnight. As the Government has recognised, customs is a cliff-edge issue. On the day of exit from the EU, the UK authorities will need to perform new functions or face disruption at the border.

  113. Colm

    I don’t think it is an unbelievable exaggeration. Where will the food, especially perishables, come from? The UK does not produce enough to feed its population and imports large amounts of all types of foodstuffs. If post Brexit there are no arrangements in place to import food and other items how will they get into the UK? Crackers three times a day is not a good diet.

  114. New Yorker

    We’ll just get out our old ration books, learn to love powdered egg again and Dig for Victory 😉

    No but seriously I don’t believe there will be no arrangements to import food, it will just become more bureaucratic and cumbersome. We will have delays and shortages for a while but billions of pounds of food commerce won’t just stop. The success of Idiotic Brexiteers will just make life a bit less enjoyable and more expensive for us all.

  115. Noel,

    “Why then doesn’t the UK government come out and say simply that there will be no additional checks after Brexit, that things at the ports will stay as they are?”

    You’re responding to a point I didn’t make. I was responding to what New Yorker wrote.

    Brexit may result in many things but in no circumstances is it going to turn cows into horses. Nor is it going to turn pharmaceuticals from France that meet UK standards into knock offs from Eastern Europe that don’t.

  116. Frank ODwyer

    You are supposing we live in a perfect world but checks are needed because we do not live in one. Dicey horse-meat was detected in the UK a few years ago that, I think, was imported from France. Some criminals in the EU tried to pass it off as beef and for whatever reason the French inspectors failed to stop it. Without UK checks it likely would have been consumed. What happened to EU standards in that instance? There happen to be people who will do illegal things to make a buck. You appear to have a very rosy view of human nature.

    “Even if there isn’t a shortage, telling people there will be is enough to soon create one.” But what if there will be an actual shortage? I believe certain medications people rely on are not made in the UK. For those people if arrangements are not immediately in place post Brexit, there will be an actual shortage for them. Try telling them they are complicit in a self-fulfilling prophesy.

  117. New Yorker,

    “Dicey horse-meat was detected in the UK a few years ago that, I think, was imported from France. […] the French inspectors failed to stop it […] Without UK checks it likely would have been consumed”

    As I already said:

    “These checks are either already happening or they aren’t needed.”

    So, we already check that. Therefore that will not be a new check after Brexit, will it?

    And that already-happening check doesn’t seem to cause any problems now, does it?

    So it will continue to not cause problems after Brexit, won’t it?

  118. Frank ODwyer

    The original premise of this discussion was Phantom’s statement of yesterday at 11:51AM -“I’d think that the UK has a lot of tools available to it to keep goods coming in – including having no checks on imports from the EU, for a time.” The subject is having no checks on imports from the EU.

    I maintain having no checks on imports from the UK would be a disaster for some of the reasons mentioned above. And, it may be that more stringent checks might be needed post Brexit since the UK will no longer benefit from EU checks.

    As stated, the subject is having no checks. It does not include “already happening” which you without reason inserted. I believe the best arguments have the quality of clarity, I’m not sure you share that belief.