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THE STATE OF THE UNION

By Pete Moore On February 18th, 2020

The strong terrorist showing in the Republic of Ireland General Election has prompted speculation about a border poll. That might be a bit premature.

Less than a third of people here would vote for a united Ireland if a border poll was held tomorrow, according to a major study of 2,000 voters.

A total of 29% would support Irish unity but 52% would back remaining in the UK if a referendum was held imminently.

The key to nationalist success in a border poll is winning over those who define themselves as ‘other’ and vote for Alliance, the Greens and smaller parties.

But nearly three-quarters (73%) of those who define themselves as other – neither nationalist or unionist – would support remaining in the UK with just 27% opting for Irish unity.

The results are revealed in Northern Ireland’s largest general election face-to-face study ever carried out. Just over 2,000 people were interviewed across our 18 Westminster constituencies between December 28, 2019 and February 11.

The Liverpool University-led project was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council with interviews conducted by Social Market Research.

17 Responses to “THE STATE OF THE UNION”

  1. Voting tomorrow without knowing what it would look like, consequences, external support & investment etc?

    I’m astonished that the figure is so high.

  2. I wonder is elimination of the hard border threat and NI remaining de facto in the EU customs union and single market a factor?

    What’s with the 40% saying they are neither nationalist or unionist? Who are these people? Has anyone ever met one?

  3. there was an article the other day in the times by dominic lawson
    United Ireland – a Tory Dream
    but it was behind a pay wall .. or would have linked to it

  4. Only 52 percent for remaining in the UK? That must be a historic low.

    As for any referendum, it all depends on the context in which the question would be put. If it was generally assumed that a large part of Unionism would resist any UI, including with violence, and cause political upheaval in Dublin, then probably even the most ardent Republicans here wouldn’t vote for it.

    But if voters assumed that Unionism would be compliant and ready to accept the result, and work within the new Ireland like their southern brothers did after partition, then the result would be very different.

  5. Here you are Kurt:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sWqFceUZKtyn2E_-nCcWMlv_Bh3JNWyp/view

    If it was generally assumed that a large part of Unionism would resist any UI, including with violence, and cause political upheaval in Dublin, then probably even the most ardent Republicans here wouldn’t vote for it.

    That would make me absolutely determined to vote for it.

    It was precisely that kind of capitulation to the threat of violent terrorism against both the express democratic will the Irish electorate and the principle of Parliamentary Democracy that created the mess of partition in the firat place.

  6. A UI Would be an incredibly positive thing for England and Britain. Zero downside, an end to the headache that never eases.

    But economically It would bring only major new burdens to the republic, with the addition of the basket case

    Plus new Divided society headaches without end.

  7. Phantom, I linked to this international academic study the other day:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/both-republic-and-north-could-benefit-from-united-ireland-1.2823081

    And to financial journalist Paul Gosling:

    https://www.paulgosling.net/2018/04/2915/

    I’m not an economist so I read them as a layman.

  8. I think that it will happen, and I hope it will be good, for all.

    The biggest winners again I think would be the UK, who might declare a one week public holiday of national celebration, and second the six counties, And then hopefully the republic as well

  9. Phantom, on February 19th, 2020 at 12:18 PM Said:

    I think that it will happen, and I hope it will be good, for all.

    The biggest winners again I think would be the UK, who might declare a one week public holiday of national celebration, and second the six counties, And then hopefully the republic as well

    I hope it makes Dublin a lot less expensive, Jesus H Christ, the prices are through the stratosphere. it wasn’t as bad when the paddies had their own currency.

  10. Dublin named as one of the most expensive capitals in the world for tourists to visit. Stock picture of O’Connell Street and 500 Euro notes. Dublin has been listed among the most expensive capital cities in the world for travellers, according to a new study.

    https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/dublin-named-one-most-expensive-13686633

  11. From today’s Irish News:

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2020/02/19/news/a-former-unionist-who-is-now-a-member-of-the-sdlp-tells-of-his-aspiration-for-a-united-ireland-1846000/

  12. dublin isnt cheap but have you been to london?

    dublin can be affordable to visit if you do any homework at all

  13. Much will depend on how Brexit works out. If it is a success, which I doubt, NI would be wise to stay in the UK. However if it is failure and everybody gets poorer, then NI should look for some arrangement with the RoI. The EU has said that if NI joined the RoI it would be again part of the EU. By the end of next year, if not sooner, we should know if Brexit is successful or a failure for NI.

  14. New Yorker, on February 19th, 2020 at 4:27 PM Said:
    Much will depend on how Brexit works out. If it is a success, which I doubt,

    “You doubt”?

    What has changed?

    Over the last few years, you appear to have been absolutely certain Brexit was going to bring plagues of locusts, the Sky was going to fall in, all the British would be growing turnips and eating straw, and huddling around a pile of burning twigs to keep warm.

  15. We’re doomed..doomed i tells ya.

    https://images.app.goo.gl/4a7NWmWRoWxfmCcAA

  16. Harri

    Nothing has changed. I still think Brexit will not be a success.

  17. The Brits And others will have multiple definitions of what success is

    And they won’t all be economic