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NEW YORK, MADRID, WORSE THAN LOMBARDY SO FAR

By Pete Moore On March 24th, 2020

The Financial Times has a useful coronavirus stats tracker, for those so inclined. Today we see that New York and Madrid are (so far) tracking above Lombardy. Maybe London is too, which is the UK’s most intensely affected region.

John Burn-Murdoch is the FT’s man who collates and tweets this stuff out.

I see that President Trump has said he wants the US back to work by Easter. I think he’ll be disappointed in that hope.

146 Responses to “NEW YORK, MADRID, WORSE THAN LOMBARDY SO FAR”

  1. I have to admit, I’m quite nervous.

  2. I don’t dispute the fundamental point but

    NY State / US got a very late start to systematic testing ( don’t know how that compares with Italy )

    Are we speaking of NY City or NY State? One of the big clusters is in the NY metro area but not in the city itself

  3. Let me retract the comment about testing.

    That would be relevant to the number of known cases but not relevant to the number of deaths.

  4. I see Cuomo’s losing his rag today. He looks really worried.

  5. I was reading that there’s less than 150 hospital beds in Gib:

    There are currently 98 beds at St Bernards Hospital, and an additional 50 beds will be made available when the elderly are moved to Mount Alvernia and Belle Vista

    https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/03/21/coronavirus-still-a-low-number-of-confirmed-cases-in-gibraltar-for-now/

    Gibraltar looks to be in a particularly vulnerable position.

  6. Paul

    The entire earth is in a vulnerable position.

    And I apologise beforehand, but if anyone seriously truly believes this all started from someone eating bat soup, then I for one, strongly disagree.

    This is the perfect bio-weapon of mass destruction and more importantly, disruption.

    The question is, by accident, or by design?

  7. Yes I agree Harri but I mean Gibraltar is in a particularly vulnerable in the sense that it’s a small enclave of a different nationality with very limited resources conjoined to a country with one of the biggest Corona contagions on earth.

    Harri, I don’t definitively know the origins of the virus but as I’ve said many times before, my opinions on it are gleaned from the conclusions of those eminently qualified to authoritatively comment on such things.

  8. I’m scared and I think that’s a rational emotion to feel at this point.

    Harri, could you please stop mentioning the Chinese in every comment. I think you’re a nice fellow and understand your concern, but it’s not relevant right now. Let’s talk about us instead and what we’re going through.

  9. El Paso is on lock down as of tomorrow, although I’m not sure if I can walk the dog or not.

  10. Charles, we’ve been on complete lock down by law for the last nine days. Here walking the dog is seen as essential although you can only walk it withing a 500 metre radius of your home.

  11. the graphs are right, we’re on the upside of the curve, nowhere near the peak
    as this one shows, bottom right – yellow curve
    its behaving like a pandemic in every respect, so these counter measures are absolutely correct. Trump ofc is talking out of his backside when he is promoting Easter as a return to work. Man this guy should NOT be fiddling while Rome burns.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

  12. NYC is not as strict as Spain.

    We can walk anywhere we want, but are told to stay 6 feet away from others, which I and 99.99% of folks are doing.

    The buses and trains are running but there are very few riders.

  13. Thanks Paul, I’ve read the directive and it seems you can walk the dog in the park as long as you maintain distance and don’t use park equipment like swings for the kids.

  14. Daphne.

    To paraphrase Patrick..in a sense..

    We are in dire straits.

    Fuck the Chinese.

    Again, as long as they seal their barbaric borders, I hope them [the Chinese] along with the Koreans get a serious bout of dog flu next.

    Can they not take a hint from nature?

    Obviously fucking not.

    How dumb are they?

  15. All of the major cities in Texas are shut down, plus a few random counties. Listening to our mayor and local health officials give a briefing morning they repeatedly said that they are looking for the citizens to reduce all social contact by 90%.

    Kept stressing it is the only way to reduce the curve.

  16. As I said..

    Fuck the Chinese..

    What part of “stop eating anything with a pulse” or improve you health and safety” in your level-4 bio pathogen warfare labs do these fuckwits not get?

    What is Hantavirus? At least one person dead as China fears new pathogen outbreak

    CHINA has just reported a fresh outbreak of a pathogen that is more fatal than coronavirus after a man died from Hantavirus, sparking fears he may have spread the disease to many others.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1259729/hantavirus-outbreak-symptoms-death-rate-latest-china-deadly-pandemic-coronavirus

  17. The graphs of deaths should be split to reveal the demographic and the health status of the victim, and then we would see the reality – it’s flu.

    I see that masks from China for medics are urgently needed by the US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/coronavirus-china-masks.html

    American front-line medical personnel are running desperately short of masks and protective equipment as they battle the coronavirus outbreak. China, already the world’s largest producer of such gear by far, has ramped up factory output and is now signaling that it wants to help.

    Masks for medics – good idea. What about everybody else?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/02/29/no-you-do-not-need-face-masks-for-coronavirus-they-might-increase-your-infection-risk/

    Community transmission of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, has officially begun in the U.S., with two cases in California and one in Oregon of unknown origin. The first COVID death was reported Saturday, Feb. 29, in Seattle. The natural human response to a strange, new disease making its way to a neighborhood near you is to feel anxiety and want to DO SOMETHING. That’s why many people have been buying up and stockpiling masks. But even if you could buy any in the midst of global shortages, should you?

    No.

    And if you already have masks, should you wear them when you’re out?

    No.

    https://www.eastidahonews.com/2020/03/the-surgeon-general-wants-americans-to-stop-buying-face-masks/

    (CNN) — The United States’ top doctor has one simple request: Stop buying face masks.

    US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams’ message, posted to Twitter on Saturday, was a response to face mask shortages as people stocked up due to coronavirus concerns.

    “Seriously people,” he began, and though it’s a tweet, you can almost hear the exasperation in his plea. “STOP BUYING MASKS!”

    “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” he continued.

    Why would masks be needed by medics to prevent infection yet not by the wider public? I had no idea why until The Daily Stormer – the source of truth – pointed out what’s going on…..

    Masks OBVIOUSLY reduce risk for infection. They can say all they want that “oh well, there are sides on the mask, and things can go in through the sides.” But this is the same argument as “oh well, if you build a wall, some percentage of people will climb over it.”

    Just as building a wall will reduce X % of illegal immigrants, wearing a mask will reduce X % of respiratory infections. Moreover, a mask more or less completely blocks a cough or sneeze, thus preventing you from spreading anything you might have to other people. That is why China mandated the wearing of masks.

    OK, but why no masks for the wider public??

    If you wear a mask, especially accompanied with sunglasses, it makes it virtually impossible for a facial recognition camera to identify you. Facial recognition is a big part of the US Government’s plan to manage this multicultural hellscape that they’ve created.

  18. The Daily Stormer – the source of truth – pointed out what’s going on

    gosh i never knew that.. really ? source of truth ?
    oh dear, thread gone to gutter – bath time i guess ..

  19. Daphne, on March 24th, 2020 at 8:07 PM Said:

    I’m scared and I think that’s a rational emotion to feel at this point.

    That’s what the intention is. But what’s this?

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

    Status of COVID-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

    The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

  20. gosh i never knew that

    Don’t worry – you don’t know very much anyway

  21. Daphne.

    The Chinese have been eating bats and just about anything else with a pulse for centuries.

    So, why are they only now shutting down Major Cities and Texas now?

    Do you think there is something we are not being told?

  22. Harri –

    You’re going round and round the same mulberry bush. China might have been having epidemics for as long as they’ve been eating bats and pangolins without the rest of the world learning of it. Global air travel is a very recent phenomenon.

    Remember SARS?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, or SARS-1) is a viral respiratory disease of zoonotic origin that surfaced in the early 2000s caused by the first SARS coronavirus. In late 2017, Chinese scientists traced the virus through the intermediary of civets to cave-dwelling horseshoe bats in Yunnan province.

    Remember the Swine Flu epidemic in 2009? Over a billion infected. Maybe half a million killed. These things go around.

  23. Has there ever been a case of a human virus becoming infective to animals?

  24. Pete.

    As I said.

    Fuck the Chinese.

  25. I don’t think that viruses are a new thing in this world

  26. Harri, everyone here is done with your Chinese obsession. We don’t want to talk/read about it anymore, take it somewhere else. Do you have OCD and Asperger’s? Serious question, not snarky.

  27. Phantom, on March 24th, 2020 at 9:56 PM Said:

    I don’t think that viruses are a new thing in this world

    What is this statement?

  28. It is a reaction to this

    You’re going round and round the same mulberry bush. China might have been having epidemics for as long as they’ve been eating bats and pangolins without the rest of the world learning of it. Global air travel is a very recent phenomenon.

    There were no international fights in 1918, yet that virus spread to the most remote parts of the world anyway, including the Aleutian Islands

    Flights from Beijing to LHR certainly mean faster transmission I would think but viruses don’t need airplanes to get to where they want to get to

  29. Phantom –

    It’s quite possible that a Wuhan Flu outbreak 300 years ago wouldn’t have gone anywhere but Wuhan. There were fewer people everywhere traveling only as far as their feet or a horse (for the wealthier) could take them.

    It’s now arriving at Heathrow in 12 hours.

  30. Yes, and many fewer people on the planet too.

  31. Why did previous outbreaks like SARS and Swine flu not lead to the sort of unprecedentrd lockdowns that Covid 19 is causing ?

  32. https://www.ukcolumn.org/community/?mailpoet_router&endpoint=view_in_browser&action=view&data=WzEwOSwiNTQzYjBlNDA0OGFlIiw4NzgwLCJhNGVjMzIiLDk4LDBd

    A foothold needs to be kept in reality

    https://www.bluewin.ch/de/newsregional/zuerich/1068-bestatigte-corona-falle-und-funf-todesfalle-im-kanton-zurich-371873.html

    Übers Wochenende kamen zwei weitere Todesfälle hinzu.

    Dabei handelte es sich um einen 96-jährigen Mann im Palliativstadium und um einen 97-Jährigen mit Vorerkrankungen.

    Be afraid – BE VERY AFRAID (Daphne – be afraid!!)

    Switzerland: Despite media panic, excess mortality still at or near zero: the latest test-positive “victims“ were a 96yo in palliative care and a 97yo with pre-existing conditions.

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) in the UK.

    A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that “the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since “the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.

    An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.

    Embedded links to sources available within link at top

  33. ‘Just the flu’

    “If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don’t mind if you get the flu, remember it’s not about you – it’s about everybody else.”

    Intensive care specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery explains why this coronavirus is different from the ordinary flu.

    https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1241803403619172359

  34. I do hope hope Allan’s predictions and analysis are correct.

  35. Colm, the potential infection rate is explained above.

  36. Paul – whatever ‘corona’ is, it isn’t dangerous.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

    Status of COVID-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

    The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCI

    That’s because it’s the flu.

    So why the lockdown?

  37. But the masks’ mystery remains – see 9.11pm WOW – what a time to post!!!

    One reads that masks(from China!) are needed for medics in the US to counter infection, and yet the public are not supposed to wear these same masks.

  38. Number of cases
    As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

    Cases identified in England
    Confirmed cases in each local authority and NHS region are published by Public Health England (PHE).

    Risk level
    The risk to the UK has been raised to high

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#risk-level

    No, and I don’t know what made them change in five days.

  39. Daphne, on March 24th, 2020 at 10:00 PM Said:
    Harri, everyone here is done with your Chinese obsession. We don’t want to talk/read about it anymore, take it somewhere else. Do you have OCD and Asperger’s? Serious question, not snarky.

    Daphne.

    Where did Covid-19 come from?

  40. Daphne.

    Stop with you’re Trump obsession, Do you have OCD and Asperger’s? Serious question, not snark

  41. Come on Harri it must be at least oh 17 minutes since you mentioned Bat Soup, you are slacking my good man 😉

  42. Bat soup and fava beans,With a nice Chianti

  43. Daphne seems to think the virus that started in China, came from somewhere else…apparently.

    So, all the scientists are wrong?

    This is not something to do with Trump calling it Chinese Flu, by any chance is it?

  44. Phantom, on March 24th, 2020 at 11:06 PM Said:
    Bat soup and fava beans,With a nice Chianti

    With a sprinkling of dopey liberal self righteousness..

    😀

  45. Trump wants to get the US back to business by Easter. What planet is this know-nothing goon living on?

    “On Tuesday afternoon, Donald Trump sat in the verdant White House grounds for a Fox News “virtual town hall” and said he hoped to get US businesses reopened by Easter, in just over two weeks.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012048

  46. Yes and he was talking about how the churches would be packed for Easter

    This guy isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer

    Fauci for president

  47. Paul – it’s not a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) and the data from other locations were becoming available. Flu is simply doing what it does seasonally.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

    Last updated 21 March 2020

    But, BUT the UK government must have had these data available before the decision to impose its lockdown, and there are bad reasons behind it – but the data as revealed from where this virus was locked in – the Diamond Princess – show that infection and mortality are in the bandwidth for flu

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

    OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.

    Now you can worry if you want, but I won’t. The problem isn’t the virus: it’s the government and what it’s up to

  48. Colm:

    Why did previous outbreaks like SARS and Swine flu not lead to the sort of unprecedentrd lockdowns that Covid 19 is causing ?

    COVID-19 has an unusually long incubation period during which the infected are contagious. It is also extremely infectious. Curiously, the fact that it is (relatively) mild in its effects is also another reason that it is so dangerous. Really severe acute illnesses (think Ebola or other hemorrhagic fevers) that kill their hosts quickly aren’t able to spread so quickly. SARS was a nasty one, and also had a shorter incubation period.

  49. Daphne seems to think the virus that started in China, came from somewhere else…apparently.

    So, all the scientists are wrong?

    No, Harri, she is merely telling you to shut up about your utterly ridiculous conspiracy theories, which nobody is interested in.

    We all know it came from China, but the route via which it reached humans – which did not involve either bioweapons labs or ‘bat soup’ – is well established to anybody who is not a fruit loop. It’s called zoonotic infection, and it’s been happening for millennia.

    The fact that a previous coronavirus – the one responsible for SARS – escaped from a lab where microbiologists were trying to develop a vaccine, A YEAR after the outbreak, is not evidence for your deranged conspiracy theory. There is, in fact, no credible evidence for it. Daphne doesn’t want to hear about it, nobody else wants to hear about it, with the possible exception of the deranged Nazi in Scotland. If you’d like to chat with him about it privately, please feel free.

  50. COVID-19 has an unusually long incubation period during which the infected are contagious.

    Yes Colm, and that’s why the much-publicised temperature checks are useless. They were effective in containing SARS but not this one. As full-testing gradually ramps up we are discovering that many have suffered and recovered with virtually no symptoms apart from losing their sense of smell for a few days. But during those days they were infectious to others.

  51. And still Trump goes with the lies, with Pence joining in:

    “Mr. Trump fell back on his comparison of the coronavirus to the flu, saying that despite losing thousands of people to the flu, “We don’t turn the country off.” States including California, Maryland, Illinois and Washington have declared stay-at-home or shutdown orders, but other states have been looking for directives from the Trump administration. And countries in Asia are beginning to see a resurgence of coronavirus after easing up on restrictions.

    At one point during the town hall, Mr. Trump said that the coronavirus wasn’t anywhere near as deadly as the 1918 flu, which was the worst infectious disease epidemic in recorded human history. People who got the 1918 flu, he said, had close to a “50/50 chance” of dying.

    In fact, the fatality rate for people infected by the 1918 flu ​was estimated to be around 2 to​ 2.5 percent, compared to a rate of about 0.1 percent for seasonal flu. Early estimates of the death rate in China from the new coronavirus were about 2 percent. But Dr. Fauci recently estimated the death rate from the coronavirus at about 1 percent, 10 times that of the seasonal flu.

    Mr. Pence also said two malaria drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, had been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for off-label use treating patients with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The F.D.A. did not immediately confirm that assertion, but two administration health officials said it was not true.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/world/coronavirus-news-live-updates.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-world&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_world#link-5bc91d72

  52. Paul – whatever ‘corona’ is, it isn’t dangerous.

    Allan displaying his usual mastery of the detail, I see. Clearly not bothered to find out what the phrase ‘high consequence infectious disease’ means. Here’s the internationally agreed definition, taken from the professional literature:

    ‘Otherwise healthy individuals who contract an HCID typically develop severe symptoms and require a high level of care’.

    Corona does not fit this definition, because a relatively small proportion of the *otherwise healthy* develop ‘severe symptoms.

    But it does not follow that only HCIDs are dangerous. Quite the opposite. Coronavirus is much more dangerous than flu, both for the ease of transmission and the severity of the symptoms in those with comorbities. It is also *much* more dangerous for the otherwise healthy than flu.

  53. By the way, Allan, it isn’t flu. Influenza is not a coronavirus.

    This new virus has been DNA sequenced no fewer than 183 times at labs in China, Japan, the Philippines, the USA, Finland, Australia and many other countries. It has been visualised by electron microscopy. It does not look like influenza, it does not have the same structure or DNA. It does not even belong to the same family of viruses. It. Is. Not. Flu.

  54. Masterson,

    “But it does not follow that only HCIDs are dangerous”

    In fact, almost everything that is dangerous is not a HCID.

  55. Thanks Peter and Masterson for your info. It’s a pity that Allan can’t be right for once though. It would ease my fears !

  56. Fauci for president

    No, Fauci will be sidelined soon or even fired outright. We know that Trump doesn’t tolerate dissent, especially informed scientific dissent which goes against his “gut instinct” and political interests. He wants to ease the restrictions even as the number of cases is soaring and will continue to soar, probably for weeks. Because this is an election year and Wall Street needs to recover well before November. If that means sacrificing 50,000 Americans needlessly in order to improve his chances of re-election, be sure that Trump will be comfortable with that equation and sleep soundly:

    “For the last four days, some White House officials, including those working for Vice President Mike Pence, who leads the coronavirus task force, have been raising questions about when the government should start easing restrictions. Among the options being discussed are narrowing restrictions on economic activity to target specific age groups or locations, as well as increasing the numbers of people who can be together in groups, said one official, who cautioned that the discussions were preliminary.

    Health officials inside the administration have mostly opposed that idea, including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, an infectious diseases expert and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, who has said in interviews that he believes it will be “at least” several more weeks until people can start going about their lives in a more normal fashion.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/trump-coronavirus-economy.html?campaign_id=154&emc=edit_cb_20200324&instance_id=17038&nl=coronavirus-briefing&regi_id=92386359&segment_id=22779&te=1&user_id=88a853b48475ac441e2bca51f72ddacb

  57. the data as revealed from where this virus was locked in – the Diamond Princess – show that infection and mortality are in the bandwidth for flu

    Just as a sidenote, let’s stop to reflect on the fact that the author of the absurd Watts Up With That article linked to by Allan makes a specific prediction about the eventual TOTAL number of deaths in the US:

    Finally, a plea for proportion. US coronavirus deaths are currently at 67, we’ll likely see ten times that number, 670 or so, might be a thousand or three … meanwhile, 3,100 people die in US traffic accidents … and that’s not 3,100 once in a decade, or 3,100 per year.

    Just a week after that article was published, there have been 696 recorded deaths from coronavirus in the US alone. And it’s barely getting started; sadly, it’s going to get much, much worse.

    Watts Up With That is *not* a reliable source of scientific information.

  58. No, Fauci will be sidelined soon or even fired outright. We know that Trump doesn’t tolerate dissent, especially informed scientific dissent which goes against his “gut instinct” and political interests. He wants to ease the restrictions even as the number of cases is soaring and will continue to soar, probably for weeks. Because this is an election year and Wall Street needs to recover well before November. If that means sacrificing 50,000 Americans needlessly in order to improve his chances of re-election, be sure that Trump will be comfortable with that equation and sleep soundly:

    Peter, I agree. I have a bad feeling about what Trump is going to do next. I think there is a very real danger that he will ease those restrictions, with catastrophic consequences for public health. God forbid, but if he does that and America suffers as a result, it will be the only thing remembered about his presidency.

  59. Watts Up With That specialises in Climate Change Denialism and has a long record of being found out for shameless lies and falsifications and absurd conspiracy theories. Needless to say, it is a go-to source for many lower-grade Climate Liars, the ones who prefer not to engage with the issue in favour of the easy option of spouting bullshit science and endless conspiracy paranoia.

  60. Masterson

    I’m not sure if Trump has the power to over-ride states which have imposed lock-downs, which will be most of them very soon. But if he does, it will be an enormous gamble with tens of thousands of lives in pursuit of a political objective. We know that he has no moral scruples and no empathy because of the personality disorders he clearly suffers from. But there is no-one in his “administartion” who will dare try to stop him. The adults have all left the room and Fauci is the last man standing. Which is why his days must be numbered.

  61. the data as revealed from where this virus was locked in – the Diamond Princess – show that infection and mortality are in the bandwidth for flu

    Allan keeps saying it’s no worse than flu and every time “backs it up” with a link showing it to be about 10x worse than flu.

    The WUWT link (if you follow it back to the original paper), is no exception, the conclusion is the usual: about 10x worse than flu.

    And of course the concern is not (just) the mortality rate but the hospitalisation and ICU rate. All of these seem to be about 10x worse also.

  62. Trump’s urge to ease the restrictions as soon as 31 March was sparked off by a blow-hard Fox commentator and Trump Groupie on Sunday night. It looks like the pandemic cannot avoid being dragged into the US culture wars, just like everything else is:

    “In the late hours of Sunday night, Trump had vented his concerns.

    “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” he tweeted, using the all-caps he reserves for matters of apparent urgency. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

    The 15-day period the president referenced began on 16 March, when the White House announced new Centers for Disease Control guidelines encouraging all Americans to work from home when possible and limit gatherings of more than 10 people. As is often the case, the president’s tweet may have been prompted by watching a segment on Fox News. On Sunday evening, host (and former advisor to then-British PM David Cameron) Steve Hilton warned that an economic collapse would itself result in avoidable deaths and other hardships – that the “cure” could be worse than the “disease”.

    “Our ruling class and their TV mouthpieces whipping up fear over this virus, they can afford an indefinite shutdown,” Hilton said. “Working Americans can’t. They’ll be crushed by it.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52009108

  63. I don’t think that an American president would have the power to override a state of emergency ordered by a governor for his own state

  64. he doesn’t

  65. Yep, the governor can be thought of as a kind of president for his or her own state

  66. PANDEMIC UPDATE!!!!

    Global cases
    Updated Mar 24 at 8:47 PM local

    Confirmed 417,663
    +39,269

    Deaths 18,605
    +2,114

    Recovered 108,312
    +6,728

    WORLD WIDE DEATHS….. less than a third of those that have DIED FROM THE FLU in the US alone……

  67. Phantom, on March 25th, 2020 at 12:52 AM Said:
    Yep, the governor can be thought of as a kind of president for his or her own state

    It’s called Federalism…….

  68. WORLD WIDE DEATHS….. less than a third of those that have DIED FROM THE FLU in the US alone……

    NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT! IT’S A HOAX! FAKE NEWS! LIFT ALL RESTRICTIONS NOW!!!

  69. WORLD WIDE DEATHS….. less than a third of those that have DIED FROM THE FLU in the US alone……

    Patrick, this comparison is stupid, given the current rate of increase in infection and death rates. I urge you strongly to read the multitude of information on this virus made available by the CDC on their excellent website.

    Not only is this virus much more dangerous than the flu, it is spreading rapidly. We are still in the early stages.

    My wife is a doctor and in the last week I have heard countless stories about coronavirus from ICUs across Europe and North America. Anybody who tries to tell me that it’s ‘only the flu’ or the death toll is ‘less than seasonal flu’ is going to receive very short shrift.

  70. Masterson

    You are arguing science, Patrick is arguing politics and culture war. So of course he won’t do as you suggest, he’ll go back to Fox-Limbaa for the latest echo-chamber bullshit which keeps him in his comfort zone.

  71. Don’t forget Mark Levin

    He is the great one, as they say

  72. Allan

    //That’s because it’s the flu.
    So why the lockdown?//

    Because it’s not ‘just the flu’ Allan. Did you not watch Pete Moore’s video post a few days ago explaining how the high infection rate could overwhelm the NHS and resulting thousands of people dying needlessly?

  73. baa baa ya pack of sheep.

    Excuse me one guy says I got covid19 and lived, the woman says my husband got the Flu and DIED.

    The guy says…… well my case was worse because it was a Pandemic….. the lady shakes her head and puts flowers on her husbands grave……

    You sheep are the Guy.

  74. Columbia University has joined the NYT in the FAKE NEWS CHINESE VIRUS HOAX:

    “The coronavirus has infected far more people in the United States than testing has shown so far, and stringent measures to limit social contact in parts of the country not yet seeing many cases are needed to significantly stem the tide of illness and death in the coming months.

    Those are the conclusions of Columbia University researchers who used a New York Times database of known cases and Census Bureau transportation data to model how the outbreak could evolve based on what is known about the virus. The estimates are inherently uncertain, and they could change as America adopts unprecedented measures to control the outbreak. But they offer a stark warning: Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html

  75. baa baa ya pack of sheep.

    How can you have the effrontery to write that as NYC, one of the greatest and most wonderful cities on the planet, stumbles into its worst public health crisis in a century?

    You sheep are the Guy.

    And there you have it. This is the toxic legacy of the Bannon/Fox/Trump era – complete blindness to reality, because you’d rather trust Hannity or a talk radio host than a public official with a doctorate and a lifetime of expertise.

    Patrick you may come to regret this glib response, and your unquestioning support for your idiot president. I really, really hope I’m wrong. But your attitude says a lot about what’s wrong with America right now.

  76. https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift-morgue-for-coronavirus-victims-set-up-outside-nyc-hospital/

    Workers in military outfits built a makeshift morgue outside Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan on Tuesday to deal with a potential surge of coronavirus victims, The Post has learned.

    Two refrigerated trailers were trucked to the site at 30th Street and the FDR Drive, along with a customized RV labeled “MOBILE COMMAND CENTER — MEDICAL EXAMINER.”

    A team of men wearing camouflage fatigues and face masks set up a series of white tents that form a tunnel to a larger, white tent.

    Some of the comments are willful ignorance, a complete hostility to facts, science, knowledge. This is Trumpism.

  77. Trump and Pence are like Laurel and Hardy without the intelligence or the wit.

  78. Masterson I pray for NY I have family not only that lives there, but who serve on the NYPD. When a new strain of anything pops up a lot of people die… that is life sorry. As I said world wide it has killed less people than have died of the old flu just here in the US alone.

    It’s a new flu which means NO ONE has an immunity to it so it’s going to hit hard where it hits. Next time it shows up it won’t hit as hard. That is the nature of every virus.

    My beliefs Masterson are not newly shaped by Fox/Trump/Limbaugh/Levin my belief system is the product of 120 years of a Family that has specialized in Policing. I was the odd one out who didn’t become a cop and only because god dropped a building on me and made me a cripple.

    Family Duty Honor and God are the cornerstones of my life.

  79. New York Daily has a nice hit on the SCROTUS, might find in The Sun, UK

    https://s19137.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/nydn.jpeg

  80. New York Daily has a nice hit on the SCROTUS, might find in The Sun, UK

    https://s19137.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/nydn.jpeg

  81. Patrick
    //baa baa ya pack of sheep.

    Excuse me one guy says I got covid19 and lived, the woman says my husband got the Flu and DIED.

    The guy says…… well my case was worse because it was a Pandemic….. the lady shakes her head and puts flowers on her husbands grave……

    You sheep are the Guy.//

    If the point you’re trying to make with this story is that normal flu is worse than Corona virus then you’re very very wrong Patrick.

  82. //Family Duty Honor and God are the cornerstones of my life.//

    Yes, your beliefs in family, duty, honour and God are so strong you support Trump.

  83. Paul is correct.

    This virus doesn’t care who you are, rich or poor.

    Prince or pauper.

    Prince Charles has coronavirus

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8150833/Prince-Charles-coronavirus.html

  84. It was noted that he kept shaking hands,Even though he knew that he shouldn’t be doing that

    It’s hard not to do that when you’re in Such a position

    I think that we will have many more politicians, Business people etc. that come down with it. They are always with people in groups, always shaking hands

  85. My beliefs Masterson are not newly shaped by Fox/Trump/Limbaugh/Levin my belief system is the product of 120 years of a Family that has specialized in Policing.

    Obviously it’s that which gives you the qualifications to speak so authoritatively on viruses and medical science.

  86. fair cop paul that ..

    yeah i heard that prince shook lots of hands
    except the guy who said
    “how bout donating one of the palaces to NHS staff”

  87. When we keep hearing about the large number of ‘celebrities’ who have the virus it makes me think there must be millions of ordinary people with it but we don’t know as there hasn’t been general testing of the population. Perhaps without realising it, herd immunity is already in progress !

  88. There was a study released today from Oxford that suggested that very thing Colm, that Covid-19 was likely here a few weeks before the first case was confirmed, and that likely half the population have it already.

  89. That Sounds plausible to me

    That many people have The virus now, with the mild or even no symptoms that may often come with it

  90. There’s been a lot of criticism of that study, people claiming that it makes some assumptions that are very implausible.

  91. But if we presume that the study is accurate would that be considered a good thing or a disaster in progress ?

  92. Indeed. Though it does point to the need for further study, and further testing. The number of people tested. The team behind the Oxford study are planning to carry out antibody tests on healthy members of the public. If their assumptions are correct then they will have a lot of positive tests in their study.

  93. “But if we presume that the study is accurate would that be considered a good thing or a disaster in progress ?”

    Overwhelmingly a good thing. It would show that Covid-19 is far less lethal than first thought, that the majority have already got it and either experienced no symptoms or only very minor symptoms. The knock-on effect is that herd immunity would also likely already be developing.

  94. I’m more qualified to talk on the subject than any of you.

    You believe getting infected and living from the New Flu is worse than DYING from the old Flu

    Global cases
    Updated Mar 25 at 8:17 AM local

    Confirmed 433,172
    +54,778

    Deaths 19,677
    +3,186

    Recovered 111,739
    +10,155

    WorldWide deaths still are 40,000 people LESS DEAD than the Old Flu has killed this year in the US which is now over 55,000.

  95. I’m more qualified to talk on the subject than any of you

    Only if the subject is the aviation industry.

  96. But Patrick the point about the 40000 figure is that it is increasing rapidly each day from a few hundred in China just l3 months ago. What will you say when it becomes 80,000 then 160,000 and ever upwards ?

  97. Patrick

    //You believe getting infected and living from the New Flu is worse than DYING from the old Flu//

    Who believes that Patrick? Because I certainly don’t.

    //WorldWide deaths still are 40,000 people LESS DEAD than the Old Flu has killed this year in the US which is now over 55,000.//

    Do you know what the final outcome will be in the US? How many people will die this year from Corona virus?

  98. You know I wish we could go back to the days when we, at least here in the UK moaned about how Brexit was dominating everything ! 😉

  99. The EU is the cause of this

    I heard some guy say it in a dream, so it must be true

  100. Just been announced on TV here that Spain has overtaken China in terms of Corona deaths.

  101. Paul.

    I hate to say this, but I think that a great many countries, including the UK will end up overtaking China on Corona virus deaths.

  102. Would a large number of those deaths in Spain come from elder nursing faciities?

  103. Dave

    Concur

    After the very bad start, the Chinese got very serious in a hurry with draconian measures

    Half of the US is still partying like its 1999, not very serious at all, and I am not sure that other nations are much better

  104. Presuming that the Chinese have been transparently honest about their death figures.

  105. Would a large number of those deaths in Spain come from elder nursing faciities?

    I don’t know for sure Phantom but I’d imagine that that’s not the case on account of the numbers involved and the fact that nursing homes aren’t really that common here.

  106. Would a large number of those deaths in Spain come from elder nursing faciities?

    Yes, that’s a fair point Colm.

  107. Is there any reason, anyone know, why the the figure for infections in the US has accelerated so quickly compared to other nations?

  108. We had started significant testing much later than other countries

    That I think is a big part of it

  109. And

    It is fair to say this

    The president, other leaders, and major media ( Fox News ) were all downplaying it, saying that the virus had been dealt with, saying that it was not such a major matter

    This led many in the public to continue with business as usual until very recently. For many Americans it is still business as usual

  110. Beeb has a headline right now that a quarter of the worlds population are currently under lockdown of some sort.

    Gobsmacking to think about the enormity of that but then you think…only a quarter? Why only a quarter?

  111. Perspective re your 2.38 Phantom:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-fact-check.html

  112. Cuba to send a fifty two doctor strong medical team to Spain:

    https://elcomun.es/2020/03/23/cuba-enviara-cincuenta-y-dos-medicos-a-espana/

  113. Yes

    The record must be looked at

    Words matter. They influence people.

  114. Noel,

    Is there any reason, anyone know, why the the figure for infections in the US has accelerated so quickly compared to other nations?

    As somebody else said I think because America is now testing people, they are finding that a lot more people infected with the virus than they realise.
    I think this is going to be true of most countries. I think in the UK many more people are actually carrying this virus, than most people realise.
    My brother and I have had a dry cough for the last 3 weeks and he reckons we’ve both got it. I’m not too sure.

  115. The problem is that many of us have dry coughs or allergy caused sneeze this time of year

  116. I sometimes wonder if the anxiety we are all experiencing about the virus and it’s symptoms actually makes us have a dry cough 😉

  117. Psychosomatic Colm.

    I think that at this time of the year there are a lot of sniffles, sore throats and sneezes going about. Personally I’ll only start to worry if I or anyone here start getting feverish.

  118. You mean when we start writing in ANGRY CAPITALS 😖

  119. WHAT???????

  120. Two business acquaintances of mine have it.

    One in NYC, one in London. They I believe are both fine, and the London guy is back at work.

    Haven’t seen either in some time, which is great.

  121. Phantom

    That last sentence can be read rather ambiguously 😉

  122. I wish both well, but welcome the distance!

  123. masterson, on March 25th, 2020 at 12:02 AM Said:

    Watts Up With That is *not* a reliable source of scientific information.

    ——

    It depends what the article uses as references. Here’s one of sources on which the article is based:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

    Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship
    Timothy W Russell1*, Joel Hellewell1†, Christopher I Jarvis1†, Kevin Van Zandvoort1†, Sam Abbott1, Ruwan Ratnayake1,2, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Stefan Flasche1, Rosalind M Eggo1, W John Edmunds1, Adam J Kucharski1*

    corresponding author: timothy.russell@lshtm.ac.uk
    1 Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
    2 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
    3 The members of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) COVID-19 working group are listed at the end of the article
    † authors contributed equally

    Abstract

    Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%–5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38–2.7%). Comparing deaths onboard with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates using China data, we estimate IFR and CFR in China to be 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) respectively.

    There it is – data directly from the laboratory known as the Diamond Princess. There’s nothing remarkable about the outcome. Clearly there is desperation in the pro-Covid group at ATW when these data are shelved along with other remarkable instances such as the latest test-positive ‘victims’ from Switzerland being a 96yo in palliative care and a 97yo with pre-existing conditions – and these are Covid-19 victims!!

  124. Comparing deaths onboard with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates using China data, we estimate IFR and CFR in China to be 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) respectively.

    Ten times worse than flu.

    “There’s nothing remarkable about the outcome”

    It’s ten times worse than flu.

  125. Clearly there is desperation in the pro-Covid group at ATW

    ‘Desperation?’ ‘pro-Covid?’

    What are you on about you madman? It’s a blog discussion or a viral infection.

    Let’s remember that whatever the sources this comment demonstrates its incorrect reality:

    Just as a sidenote, let’s stop to reflect on the fact that the author of the absurd Watts Up With That article linked to by Allan makes a specific prediction about the eventual TOTAL number of deaths in the US:

    Finally, a plea for proportion. US coronavirus deaths are currently at 67, we’ll likely see ten times that number, 670 or so, might be a thousand or three … meanwhile, 3,100 people die in US traffic accidents … and that’s not 3,100 once in a decade, or 3,100 per year.

    Just a week after that article was published, there have been 696 recorded deaths from coronavirus in the US alone. And it’s barely getting started; sadly, it’s going to get much, much worse

  126. The Coronavirus Truthers are dancing in the moonlight, delighted to have a new conspiracy.

  127. Phantom, on March 25th, 2020 at 1:39 PM Said:
    Dave
    Concur
    After the very bad start, the Chinese got very serious in a hurry with draconian measures

    Concur. Very draconian measures in fact.

    Wuhan woman screams as Chinese authorities barricade her inside own home

    Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/02/wuhan-woman-screams-chinese-authorities-barricade-inside-home-12162599/?ito=cbshare
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

  128. It’s ten times worse than flu.

    Which flu? There have been many…..

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Prof. Hendrik Streeck is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of virology, and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University.

    “The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1. The special thing is that Sars-CoV-2 replicates in the upper throat area and is therefore much more infectious because the virus jumps from throat to throat, so to speak. But that is also an advantage: Because Sars-1 replicates in the deep lungs, it is not so infectious, but it definitely gets on the lungs, which makes it more dangerous.

    […]

    “You also have to take into account that the Sars-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively old people. In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics. But the question is whether he would not have died anyway, even without Sars-2.”

    – Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine, 16th March 2020

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/17/listen-cbc-radio-cuts-off-expert-when-he-questions-covid19-narrative/

    Duncan McCue (DM, Host): Dr Joel Kettner is on the line from Manitoba. Hi, Dr Kettner welcome to Checkup. You teach at the University of Manitoba and are former Chief Medical Officer of Manitoba, I understand. So what do you think of how we are coping right now?

    Dr Joel Kettner (JK): Well I don’t know what to think, frankly, but I’ll tell you what I do think. First, I wanna say that in 30 years of public health medicine I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don’t always know what they are. But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why. I have to say that I really feel for my colleagues that are in public health practice. it is easy for me to sit in the armchair of my office and look at this and observe it, and be critical and have ideas. But I really feel for them for three reasons.

    One is that the data they are getting is incomplete to really make sense of the size of the threat. We are getting very crude numbers of cases and deaths, very little information about testing rates, contagious analysis, severity rates, who is being hospitalised, who is in intensive care, who is dying, what are the definitions to decide if someone died of the coronavirus or just died with the coronavirus.

    There is so much important data that is very hard to get to guide the decisions on how serious a threat this is.

    The other part is we actually do not have that much good evidence for the social distancing methods. It was just a couple of review in the CDC emerging infectious disease journal, which showed that although some of them might work, we really don’t know to what degree and the evidence is pretty weak.

    The third part is the pressure that is being put on public health doctors and public health leaders. And that pressure is coming from various places. The first place it came from was the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) when he said “This is a grave threat and a public enemy number one”, I have never heard a Director-General of WHO use terms like that.

    Then when he announced the pandemic he said he was doing it “because of a grave alarming quick spread of the disease and an alarming amount of inaction around the world” that puts a huge pressure on public health doctors and leaders and advisors and huge pressure on governments and then you get this what seems like a cascade of decision making that really puts pressure on the countries and governments – provincial, state – to sort of…to keep up with this action that Dr Hoffman [an earlier guest on the programme] said that we are trying to avoid, or should avoid, which is an overreaction. I don’t know what is an appropriate reaction, but I do know that I am having trouble trying to figure this out and I…

    [INTERRUPTED BY HOST]

    No – it’s not dangerous to people without other health issues, and being old is an inherent health issue

    and so too is being obese……

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8142005/Being-obese-raises-coronavirus-risk-Medics-warn-patients-high-BMI-likely-die.html

    Almost two thirds of patients who fall seriously ill from coronavirus are obese and nearly 40 per cent are under the age of 60, an NHS audit has revealed.

    Sixty-three per cent of patients in intensive care in UK hospitals because of the killer virus are overweight, obese or morbidly obese.

    While the average age of people suffering the most serious symptoms of coronavirus is 64, 37 per cent are under the age of 60.

    Obesity is a life-style choice made by those who cannot even make the correct decisions about what to eat.

    Anyway, just for emphasis……

    “I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don’t always know what they are. But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why.”

    Dr Joel Kettner s professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.

  129. Allan,

    “Which flu?”

    The one you pretend it’s the same as.

    It’s ten times worse than that, according to the numbers YOU post.

    When (if) you grasp that we can move on to the other stats you have misunderstood.

  130. Frank – it’s still a flu, but which flu? If you say that the infection and mortality rates of Wuhan-flu are 10x worse than ‘flu’, and there have been many flus, which flu is it 10x worse than? As seen above, the former Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases said….

    I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza.

  131. Plaudits to the Trump Administration for pre-emptive recruitment of Public Health Advisors for Quarantine Programs in advance of ‘Corona’….

    https://jobs.cdc.gov/job/dallas/public-health-advisor-quarantine-program/250/14136286

    Public Health Advisor (Quarantine Program)
    Job ID HHS-CDC-D3-20-10640010 Date posted 11/15/2019 Location Dallas, Texas, El Paso, Texas, Houston, Texas, Seattle, Washington, Anchorage, Alaska, Los Angeles, California, San Diego, California, San Francisco, California, Miami, Florida, Atlanta, Georgia, Honolulu, Hawaii, Chicago, Illinois, Boston, Massachusetts, Detroit, Michigan, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Newark, New Jersey, New York, New York, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, San Juan
    Department: Department of Health And Human Services
    Agency: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    Job Announcement Number: HHS-CDC-D3-20-10640010
    SALARY RANGE: $51440.0 to $93077.0/Per Year
    OPEN PERIOD: 2019-11-15 to 2020-05-15
    SERIES & GRADE: GS–9/11

    15th November 2019 – well done to the Trump Administration.

    Now, should masks be worn?

  132. Allan,

    “it’s still a flu, but which flu”

    – None of them (it’s still not a flu.)

    – It’s still 10 times worse than the flu

    – It does not just affect only the old and those with pre-existing conditions.

    The second two according to numbers YOU posted.

    If you don’t even believe the numbers you yourself post then maybe take a rest.

  133. Paul McMahon,

    I think that at this time of the year there are a lot of sniffles, sore throats and sneezes going about. Personally I’ll only start to worry if I or anyone here start getting feverish.

    A lot of people can actually have coronavirus and not realise it, and get better without any serious symptoms.

  134. Allan

    Clearly there is desperation in the pro-Covid group at ATW

    You do come out with some utter nonsense Allan.
    I’ve not changed my opinion from the beginning, which is this this virus appears to not be much worse than normal flu, in terms of mortality rate. But we won’t know how how that is until it’s run its course.
    However, as has been pointed out many times, it’s a hell of a lot more contagious then normal flu, and the measures are in place to slow down the infection rate so our health services don’t become overwhelmed and people die because they can’t get medical attention, as is happening in Italy. How hard is that to understand?

  135. Frank – you are asserting that the infection and/or mortality rates for Corona are 10x worse than flu, but there have been many influenzas so which one are you taking as reference? I can’t see whether you’re right or wrong unless you provide that information.

    Dave – the damage done by the measures supposedly intended to impede the progress of Corona is greater than the damage that would be done by the freely-run illness. Entire sectors of our real economy are shut down and may never recover, and that brings suicides and mental breakdowns. It’s like the surgeon proclaiming that the operation was a success but the patient died. We know who the most vulnerable are – the elderly and the obese, so we should take appropriate measures such as getting the elderly outdoors….

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/

    The surgeon general of the Massachusetts State Guard, William A. Brooks, had no doubt that open-air methods were effective at the hospital, despite much opposition to the therapy. Many doctors felt that patients would get the same benefits if the windows of a conventional ward were open or the patients were put in a hospital “sun parlor.” Brooks, however, held that patients did not do as well in an ordinary hospital, no matter how well ventilated, as they did outdoors. Patients in indoor sun parlors were not exposed to direct sunlight all day as they were when outdoors. He reported that in one general hospital with 76 cases, 20 patients died within three days and 17 nurses fell ill.38 By contrast, according to one estimate, the regimen adopted at the camp reduced the fatality of hospital cases from 40% to about 13%.12 Brooks wrote that “The efficacy of open air treatment has been absolutely proven, and one has only to try it to discover its value.”38(p750)

    Dave – what is your opinion on face-masks? The link above suggests that they work….

    Epidemiological studies show that the wearing of masks in public places in Hong Kong and Beijing during the SARS outbreak was associated with a lower incidence of infection

    and medics in the US are expecting delivery of face-masks from China

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/coronavirus-china-masks.html

    American front-line medical personnel are running desperately short of masks and protective equipment as they battle the coronavirus outbreak. China, already the world’s largest producer of such gear by far, has ramped up factory output and is now signaling that it wants to help.

    and yet……

    https://www.eastidahonews.com/2020/03/the-surgeon-general-wants-americans-to-stop-buying-face-masks/

    (CNN) — The United States’ top doctor has one simple request: Stop buying face masks.

    US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams’ message, posted to Twitter on Saturday, was a response to face mask shortages as people stocked up due to coronavirus concerns.

    “Seriously people,” he began, and though it’s a tweet, you can almost hear the exasperation in his plea. “STOP BUYING MASKS!”

    “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” he continued.

  136. Allan,

    “ you are asserting that the infection and/or mortality rates for Corona are 10x worse than flu, but there have been many influenzas so which one are you taking as reference?”

    You were happy to talk about “the flu” before to claim it’s “just” the flu.

    If you don’t understand the terms you use then maybe take a rest.

  137. Frank – you are asserting that the infection and/or mortality rates for Corona are 10x worse than flu, but there have been many influenzas so which one are you taking as reference? I can’t see whether you’re right or wrong unless you provide that information.

  138. Allan,

    “you are asserting”

    No I’m comparing figures you are posting, to figures for the flu.

    If I were you I would have done that BEFORE I said they were the same.

  139. allan are you sure the glue-sniffers over at the daily sturm bann fuhrer haven’t got the words flu and mixed up with the adhesive “uhu”. might explain the confusion .. lol

  140. Frank – what are your figures and for which flu so that I may compare the respective figures to see whether your 10x claim is correct.

  141. Dave – the damage done by the measures supposedly intended to impede the progress of Corona is greater than the damage that would be done by the freely-run illness.

    I think medical science disagrees with you on this one Allan. the theory being that if we slow the spread of the virus, we will be able to provide medical attention for more people who would otherwise die without it. But the truth remains to be seen. I actually heard someone online today, saying that older people with medical conditions should be sacrificed to save the economy. Not a view I agree with.

    Entire sectors of our real economy are shut down and may never recover, and that brings suicides and mental breakdowns.

    But do those suicide and mental breakdowns equate to more people than would die without proper medical care? I can’t answer that.

    Dave – what is your opinion on face-masks? The link above suggests that they work….

    I’m not an expert on this, but I imagine wearing a face mask is better than wearing no face mask at all.

    The cheapest cloth masks allow some air in around the sides.
    I use this face mask which completely seals your face:

    https://www.axminster.co.uk/3m-7500-series-reusable-half-respirator-ax839416

    With these filters which stops wood dust in very fine wood dust.

    https://www.axminster.co.uk/3m-filters-for-particle-dust-and-mist-ax839420?sel=952365

    But this setup is not rated to stop biological or chemical toxins.
    However these filters are:

    https://www.axminster.co.uk/3m-gas-and-vapour-filter-cartridges-ax839418?sel=501541

    By coincidence I ordered some stuff from Axminster yesterday.
    They said they’re getting multiple phone calls every day from people trying to order filters and masks which they sold out of weeks ago.

  142. I think medical science disagrees with you on this one Allan

    Perhaps, yet on another thread Peter provided a link which considers whether the virus is already very widespread throughout the population such that no measures can restrict it – and its mortality rate would be very low and short-lived

    But the truth remains to be seen. I actually heard someone online today, saying that older people with medical conditions should be sacrificed to save the economy. Not a view I agree with.

    Yes, and yes – but on the latter, I’ve discussed this elsewhere and there are plusses which ruthless politicians would make use of – less load on the NHS, equity released to be spent in the economy, younger families acquiring the family home etc. And if you believe that politicans wouldn’t think like that, recall the huge heat-wave in France that wiped out many oldies. In the winter that followed, the death rate was down and Chirac claimed plaudits: but those who would have died that winter had already died in the summer! They are reprehensible, and Johnson is worse than most.

  143. Allan.

    Yes. It could already be widespread anyway. In which case the self isolating will have less of an effect than the government are hoping it will. But only time will tell on that score.

    I agree on your second point. Call me an old cynic, but I can’t help thinking that some part of our government are rubbing their hands together thinking that a generation of older people being wiped out, would result in less money on pensions, less money on HealthCare and more housing.

  144. Ask not for whom the bell tolls.

    But you may be correct.

  145. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

    The US remains way behind where we should be in all matters of resources organization and preparedness.Read this essay, if you have the stomach for it

    The Atlantic magazine is lowering it’s payroll for coronavirus writing.

    New York City area, Washington State, and Northern California might be bearing the brunt now, But I fear and even worse catastrophe than what we will ultimately bear in places like Louisiana, Where the hospitals are under resourced to begin with.

    The governor of Mississippi yesterday overruled the city of Tupelo which had implemented mandatory social distancing rules, With the unanimous support of the Tupelo city Council. We have some horrifically bad leaders, who will get many their people killed unnecessarily

  146. https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/25/governor-exempts-businesses-from-social-distancing/