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HOW LONG?

By Pete Moore On March 29th, 2020

I don’t think the economy can take what the Deputy Chief Medical Officer is prescribing here –

19 Responses to “HOW LONG?”

  1. The implication though is they figure they are averting massive loss of life, which is a bit disconcerting to say the least.

    The measures just don’t make any sense unless they are for a short time, or there’s massive loss of life at stake.

  2. I agree with Frank above. It makes sense that the measures will be incrementally reduced through time as opposed to general lifting too.

    Remember, this is still very much uncharted water.

  3. Pete – this video below is for you to digest and hopefully re-direct you. After all, you are not of the mindset of the ATW-mass so you’ll probably grasp its content:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrKzCQdgixs&feature=emb_logo

    The ‘go-to’ medic in this entire fraud within the UK is Professor Neil Ferguson and he’s running over old ground……

    https://www.rt.com/uk/484319-coronavirus-swine-flu-hysteria-redux/

    One such expert is Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, who has been testifying before the British parliament on how many people he thinks will ultimately fall prey to Covid-19. Professor Ferguson was giving evidence as part of a parliamentary select committee on science and technology. His initial projection was that Covid-19 would claim the lives of 500,000 people in the UK — but he has revised that projection. Ferguson now believes that at most 20,000 people will die — and it could be much lower.

    The eminent epidemiologist’s U-turn has not been widely reported to the public, but reportage from inside the hearing says that Professor Ferguson is now calling a figure 25 times smaller than his original prediction the absolute maximum. One wonders what has happened to change his mind — it seems that the lower than expected mortality rates are causing experts to re-evaluate their more apocalyptic predictions. Professor Ferguson actually has Covid-19 himself —perhaps it is not as bad as he thought.

    Moreover, Professor Ferguson told the British parliament that he believes the UK’s national health system (NHS) has enough intensive care beds and equipment to handle the pandemic. And although the peak not having hit just yet, he believes that the UK will come through the worst relatively smoothly. Much ado about nothing, then?

    The nutters who run this country on behalf of those who rape it are going to take any measure to ‘halt the virus’ – even if that means destroying the economy in which we work. But the consequences of the virus itself are minimal, as is now becoming clear. At the moment, support for the lockdown is a mile wide and an inch deep.

    Professor Sir Liam Donaldson was the chief medical officer for England at the time (of ‘swine’ flu). He announced that the worst case scenario would see almost 19 million people infected by the virus, and a mortality rate of around 0.35% resulting in about 65,000 deaths. Based largely on Sir Liam’s worst case scenario (after all, one must prepare for the worst) the British government got an enormous vaccination program underway, which was to prioritize those particularly at risk (the elderly, pregnant women and children) before a general roll-out to the rest of the population. They bought 90 million doses in total from pharmaceutical companies GlaxoSmithKline and Baxter.

    Needless to say, that did not happen. By the spring of 2010, it was clear that A/H1N1 was far less deadly than previous flu epidemics. But remember that 65,000 deaths was Sir Liam’s worst case scenario; what was his best case scenario? At a minimum, he predicted, swine flu would infect around 3 million Brits and kill only 3,100. Much less frightening. So how did the final tallies stand?

    In the end, fewer than 500 British people died from swine flu, almost all people with underlying health conditions.

  4. I saw Ferguson’s u-turn. It was his original advice which spooked the government into shutting everything down.

  5. Pete,

    The “u-turn” is *because* everything was shut down.

    The original figure was if we did nothing.

    Current figure is for the current situation

  6. Frank –

    The original figure was therefore predicated on something which wasn’t going to happen. The UK was going to shut down at some point.

  7. Pete,

    For pretty much any risk it’s very sensible to ask the question “what would happen if we did nothing?”, if possible.

    If the answer is “not much” then you’re done.

    For any other answer you have your worst case and a useful reality check on solutions that could be worse than the problem.

  8. Locally, Dr Fauci has become much loved and respected.

    A upstate donut store is selling Fauci donuts

    In Brooklyn, there is some talk of renaming 13th Avenue after him. That is the street where his dad owned a small pharmacy for years.

  9. Frank ODwyer, on March 29th, 2020 at 9:23 PM Said:

    Pete,

    The “u-turn” is *because* everything was shut down.

    OK – and the virus remains then returns when everything starts up again, so why not shut down everything indefinitely?

    It’s not a dangerous virus, not at all. Just let it run and get people back to work so that debts don’t mount, small businesses don’t fail, and cash remains a method of transaction.

  10. “why not shut down everything indefinitely?”

    Like asking if you hit the brakes when somebody runs in front of the car, why not hit them all the time?

    Or if parachutes help when falling out of a plane, why not wear them in the bath?

  11. Allan.

    Do you believe that continuing as normal, and letting the virus run its course without social distancing, which would result in sacrificing older people, because they wouldn’t get the medical care they need because of an overwhelmed NHS, is a price worth paying?

  12. The problem is the ‘experts’ have gone balls deep on this with their prediction models, frightening both the government and populace into irrational action that will have long lasting economic, social and political consequences. PM Alexander Johnson is enjoying an upward trend in the polls and people are reasonably OK. But when their P45’s come in and those bills start going unpaid you watch.

  13. Mark B, on March 30th, 2020 at 5:33 PM Said:
    The problem is the ‘experts’ have gone balls deep on this with their prediction models

    With past “pandemics”

    Have any of these experts ever been correct?

  14. Is it more rational to maintain our normal lives in the grip of a global pandemic?

  15. Do you believe that continuing as normal, and letting the virus run its course without social distancing, which would result in sacrificing older people, because they wouldn’t get the medical care they need because of an overwhelmed NHS, is a price worth paying?

    That depends on what the alternative price is. Sooner or later shutting down vast swathes of the economy will result in a greater number of deaths over the longer term.

  16. ATM where I’m sitting the alternative price ATM is over 7,000 dead bodies.

  17. Financial crisis caused 500,000 extra cancer deaths, according to Lancet study

    The global financial crisis may have caused an additional 500,000 cancer deaths from 2008 to 2010, according to a new study, with patients locked out of treatment because of unemployment and healthcare cuts.

    The figures were extrapolated from an observed rise in cancer deaths for every percentage increase in unemployment, and every drop in public healthcare spending Imperial College London.

    That’s the other side of the ledger. It’s just not as obvious or immediate as military convoys taking out the dead. That recessions cause increases in suicides is well known too.

    Wealth saves lives. Recessions and depressions kill.

  18. No one’s disputing the effect that this may have on mental and physical health, (largely because it’s an unknown), but what I do know is that over 7,000 have died here in less than three weeks and me and mine are going to be better safe than sorry.

    Wanna carry on as normal? feel free although I’d advise against it.

  19. There are photos of kids playing basketball in Brooklyn NY right now

    Some are idiots, in this situation you need a firm police hand.