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Are we there yet ?

By Patrick Van Roy On April 10th, 2020

Everything has actually gone well. The world has turned off for the most part, 90% has sat home and cooperated. Except for the bitching and moaning and some finger pointing everything has gone smooth. A delight to see if you’re looking is the heart of mankind. The small things people are doing for each other. The angels of our nature have shone through.

As a realist I know that could change instantly. When things get ugly it happens fast, be aware of the events around you, but so far we all deserve a pat on the back and a smile. The simple magic of a smile. So how did we get here?

A bad virus broke out in Wu Han China, now did it come from a goofball eating a live bat, or did it come from the bioweapons lab down the street ? We will never officially know at this point it’s irrelevant, but in the beggining it was a major factor in bringing us where we are today.

2 major factors caused a panic, and a panic it was. If you think any of our governments dropped the ball in response to this you’re sadly mistaken. Yes some governments moved quicker than others, some nations did better than others, but every nation acted quickly and to the best of their capabilities. Everyone thought there was a fire. A Biological Fire, when a bioweapons lab has an accident and something gets out it’s called a fire because it burns through a population uncontrolled just like a wild brushfire consume jump consume. It’s a worst case scenario.

That’s what our governments believed happened, they had to act as if that was the case, because the braintrust in China refused to share information with the other nations of the world. They lied, the buried evidence, and silenced all information. Now you take that kind of reaction by the Chinese Government and combine it with an epicenter of their main bioweapons lab our governments had to fear the worst.

So they shut the world off.

We can thank god or chance if you’re a nonbeliever, but manmade or natural the Chicom Flu is just that a New Flu. Yes it is deadly all Flu’s are, and being a new or novel Flu it has hit hard. If our governments hadn’t acted as they did it would have been worse. My heart goes out to those we’ve lost and will yet lose. We have done well, hopefully this is the downhill side of this, if not we will be there soon.

This virus is not the plague, it is not a species killer.  COVID19 at this point has killed 95,699, BUT we have 133,219 Seasonal flu deaths this year,  460,421 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year, 268,652 Deaths caused by malaria this year,  685,023 Deaths caused by alcohol this year,  293,706 Suicides this year, and we’ve voluntarily killed 11,642,331 babies with Abortions this year.

It’s time to get back to work, hows May 1st sound ?

111 Responses to “Are we there yet ?”

  1. That’s what our governments believed happened, they had to act as if that was the case, because the braintrust in China refused to share information with the other nations of the world. They lied, the buried evidence, and silenced all information. Now you take that kind of reaction by the Chinese Government and combine it with an epicenter of their main bioweapons lab our governments had to fear the worst.

    So they shut the world off.

    The world should shut China off.

  2. Not a bad post pat , seems reasonable enough and strikes a good tone
    Not sure tbh 1st May ?
    I think a phased return makes sense
    the hotspots like New York, no way , too early
    But signs are hopeful , they cracked it all the way back to Wuhan
    the lock-down works
    phased return based on good data, and with expert backing
    we must not take silly risk in the name of mammon !

    in UK for example , banks are opening late and closing early anyway
    makes sense for workers in USA and elsewhere to stagger returns
    so some go in at 7am, then 8am, then 9am, then 10am
    similarly leave work staggered 4pm, 5pm, 6pm, 7pm
    to keep the transport systems safe from over-crowding

    still practice social distancing, wear face mask and so on
    but we can’t afford to get this wrong, as results won’t show for 2 or 3 weeks!
    that means Trunk say, on 1st May is crowing a back to work policy, if it went wrong, come 21st May it would be a terribly stupid and awkward moment to then announce it failed and a shutdown is back in action .

    Take Best agreed advice from WHO ( that will get a reaction )
    a time for gov’t to listen, esp Trunk and listen good, that’s my take

  3. Interesting that ‘bioweapons’ is mentioned three times in the post. The equivalent of what would be termed ‘leading questions’ in a cross-examination?

    When a bioweapons lab has an accident and something gets out it’s called a fire because it burns through a population uncontrolled just like a wild brushfire consume jump consume. It’s a worst case scenario.

    That’s what our governments believed happened

    Let’s just make it absolutely clear that that’s not what our governments believed happened. That’s what some possible theories suggested believed happened.

    The first two paragraphs are pretty sound although I don’t see what the point is of the comparisons in the last parapgraph? Is it an attempt to downplay the Covid death toll?

  4. BTW, May the 1st is a Friday and also International Worker’s Day so there’ll be no back to work. I know this because my birthday is on May the 3rd…… which I’ve no doubt I’ll be celebrating at home.

  5. agreed, the thinking is wrong on the thread, it should be all about what is safe
    that’s what needs to front-load this
    afraid the hyper-capitalists are intrinsically opposed to that way of thinking
    stock market and Trunk re-election is their play , so what if a few more thousand die
    mammon must be worshiped, the golden calf is the God

  6. I agree with the general view expressed here so far. Its a good and sound post from Patrick with kind sentiments but the last part is a bit too blaise and trite. You cant compare the numbers of deaths so far with COVID to the annual figures of the other conditions mentioned. The figure may be only 90,000 globally today but 3 weeks ago they were around 20,000. What will they be in 3 or 4 weeks time ?

  7. you can see a split coming up though eh between the scientists and the politicians colm ?

  8. Paul I disagree on two of your responses. First off if you think I’m leading the witness you are wrong. The word Bioweapon is used multiple times only because that’s the word that fit the sentence, you’re looking for an ulterior motive that’s not there.

    2 I do believe our governments believed it was a fire. They shut the whole damn planet down. H1N1 was multifold more deadly and they didn’t do this. The first thing the US Government did was breakout our biowarfare response plan and started reviewing it and implementing it. Which is why we have so few dead here.

    Manmade or natural they implemented the Biowarfare worse case response scenario.

    This is an opinion piece, and these are my opinions. I don’t care if this is not a theory you’ve heard from anyone else, it is my analysis of the unprecedented reaction.

  9. Colm those are NOT ANNUAL FIGURES those are the amount of deaths from those other causes SO FAR THIS YEAR.

    That’s why they are included for perspective, for christ’s sake Malaria has killed more people since Jan 1st than Covid has.

  10. Check my source for the numbers, scroll down to Health.

    https://www.worldometers.info/

  11. Pat,

    1) I don’t know if you have an ulterior motive I’m commenting on the frequency of terminology and analogising it.

    2) How could you possibly know that’s what the US Government done? How could someone living in rural Pen have such knowledge of government strategy?. You don’t have so few dead there.

  12. Unlike the flu there is no vaccine or treatment that cures this. It’s fatality rate appears to be higher. The measures taken appear to have reduced the danger. I suspect May 1 is wishful thinking.

  13. Patrick

    Even if your figures for malaria and other diseases are accurate they are a constant steady number. It wont be the case that 50 people died of Malaria in the first week of Jan and then 5000 are dying per week by the last week of March. But that is what is happening with Corona. Malaria isn’t ripping and expanding through the world like a common cold, Covid 19 is. Unchecked and unrestraned we could be looking at deaths in the millions within a few months.

  14. This virus is not the plague, it is not a species killer. COVID19 at this point has killed 95,699, BUT we have 133,219 Seasonal flu deaths this year, 460,421 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year, 268,652 Deaths caused by malaria this year, 685,023 Deaths caused by alcohol this year, 293,706 Suicides this year, and we’ve voluntarily killed 11,642,331 babies with Abortions this year.

    Are these figures just for this year to date?
    Where did you get these figures from Patrick?

  15. yes and the link is right there

    Check my source for the numbers, scroll down to Health.

    https://www.worldometers.info/

  16. Cheers Patrick.

  17. It’s time to get back to work, hows May 1st sound ?

    Probably too optimistic. But this lockdown can’t go on forever.

  18. But as I mentioned in my last comment the comparisons are irrelevent even if the numbers are accurate. COVID 19 is an exponentially growing highly infectious pandemic that is reaching everywhere. How many people died of Malaria in New York in Jan. None. How many died of Malaria in March in NY – none. How many people died of COVID in New York in Jan – None. How many died in March -thousands. You simply cant compare the two different situations.

  19. 2) How could you possibly know that’s what the US Government done? How could someone living in rural Pen have such knowledge of government strategy?. You don’t have so few dead there.

    Because I’ve studied the scenario, and when I was in the military I participated in an exercise in 1982 for a massive bioweapons attack and how it would be handled. With a few changes this was one of the scenarios.

  20. How many have died from the general flu so far this year Colm ?

    It’s everywhere, we have vaccines, and still just since january 1 there have been

    133,642 Seasonal flu deaths this year

    Quick facts:
    Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
    This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
    Sources and info:

    Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide – CDC
    Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year – World Health Organization (WHO)

    over double what corona has killed and it’s numbers are being added to everyday also.

  21. Comparisons are academic regardless of their veracity.

    To date there are almost 100,000 extra additional deaths in the world on account of this virus and it seems it’s not over yet by a longshot. That’s the pertinent figure.

  22. yes it is….. 100,000 deaths in a world of 7,776,823,900 Current World Population…. the number shows it’s just not that bad.

  23. its pretty obv that life in the big cities will change for quite some time
    but rural committees not so much , they social distance anyway cos nobody there ..lol

    a 30 sec convo y/day this was fun
    queuing for uncle sams a tiny outlet , size of a large cupboard, but only place near doing take aways; the 2 guys were covering deliveroo orders, bike guys queuing and the public.
    Took a while to get served. I had time on my hands .
    anyway turns out the guy taking my order was American

    1 min on the clock

    Me; hi garlic burger, chips and err what’s those ,. err onion rings yeah please
    Him: got it, that’s £6.60
    Me: hey what part of USA you from
    Him: UTAH
    Me: (a few secs later) , ahh that’s mormon country right
    Him: yeah ( suprised i knew )
    Me: err that guy , whats his name yeah Romney he’s the senator
    Him: yeah, that’s right
    Me: He was only one who voted.. against ..
    Him: for impeachment
    Me: yeah that’s it, hahaha
    Him hahah, yeah still a nutter though
    Me: hahah yeah I think he might have party way redeemed himself
    Him: hahah
    Me: hahah

    Nice 30 sec exchange

  24. Colm,

    But as I mentioned in my last comment the comparisons are irrelevent even if the numbers are accurate. COVID 19 is an exponentially growing highly infectious pandemic that is reaching everywhere.

    Absolutely right mate. It’s a bit like people claiming to know the fatality rate of covid-19 at this stage. We won’t actually know that until the virus has run its course, the same as we won’t actually know how many people are going to die from it this this year alone. I think that in all likelihood, and this is just my personal opinion, that deaths this year are easily going to reach over a million. Especially once the virus takes hold in heavily populated countries such as India.

  25. “Except for the bitching and moaning and some finger pointing everything has gone smooth”

    That is a pretty accurate description of how Trump has been behaving although I would probably have said “a lot of finger pointing”

  26. breath deep the gathering gloom…… lol

    Let go of your panic guys

  27. IMO 100,000 additional extra, additional deaths by any means is pretty serious. And it’s not over, not by a long way, yet.

  28. Who is panicking Patrick?
    Pointing out the facts, isn’t panicking.

  29. pat you’re drawing wrong conclusions and the mocking shows
    its never funny this; who ever is right or wrong
    no-one panicking we’re all at home, like you
    were all searching for correct perspective its simply too early for certainty
    err on side of caution, cos next guy could be YOU or ME !!!

  30. I am not panicking, honestly Im not, IM NOT IM NOT IM NOT NOT PANICKING AT ALL NO NO NO NO NO 🙂

  31. lol

  32. Dave the perspective you and Paul are taking and Colm is the panic perspective. The numbers speak for themselves. It’s just not as deadly as all the hoopla.

    And the numbers you all dismiss are from the same exact time period. A death is a death and there are plenty of things that are killing mankind right now at a much higher rate.

    yet they rate nothing to you….. that means you’re panicking

  33. Patrick.

    Who done that drawing?

    It’s superb.

  34. Dave the perspective you and Paul are taking and Colm is the panic perspective

    Pat, I’ve been confined by law to my home since March the 15th in maybe the highest Covid hotspot on Earth. Now, although you and I are in very, very different environments although I can assure you that I am very far from panicking.

    Agreed Harri. It’s pretty impressive.

  35. Same with Paul,

    I still see little panic here.

    Most are sticking to the rules, we are a sad to see what has happened to so many, the deaths, the loss of jobs, hate all of it, but I haven’t personally witnessed any panic.

  36. //COVID19 at this point has killed 95,699, BUT ..460,421 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year//

    You’ve gone all global on us, Patrick. That kind of comparison tells us very little.

    In your country around 13,000 people with HIV die in a full year, while COVID19 has killed almost 17,000 in just a few weeks.

    Around 34,000 are killed annually by the flu in the US, which on a monthly average is around 2,800 deaths – again just a fraction of the 16,000 or so Americans killed by Corona in the past month; and the trend is unfortunately rising.

    These people aren’t panicking; they’re too busy burying the dead:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6Tleba2HCk

  37. Patrick

    Dave the perspective you and Paul are taking and Colm is the panic perspective. The numbers speak for themselves. It’s just not as deadly as all the hoopla.

    Patrick. I know it’s hard for you to do this, but just the once could you please stop claiming I’ve said things and/or think things that I don’t. It’s dishonest.
    First of all I am not panicking. Show me one post where I demonstrate panic.
    And secondly I’m not dismissing your numbers. I’m agreeing with most of them. I’ve made multiple posts on ATW where I’ve argued with other people, that the coronavirus is not that much worse than regular flu in terms of the mortality rate so far.
    But to claim coronavirus is the same as regular flu is wrong. It has a higher mortality rate and is for more infectious. it is also a greater risk to people with pre-existing health conditions than normal flu. Those are the facts Patrick. Just for once in your life accepting them.

  38. a friend of David’s did the drawing.

  39. sorry if I’ve offended you Dave, but it is my opinion which means in my view you are making more of this virus than it deserves and that is a in my view a panic reaction.

    No you’re not running around screaming the sky is falling, but you are over reacting… in my view.

  40. Dave’s reaction would be in line with the reactions of Doctors Fauci and Osterholm.

  41. as for this……

    But to claim coronavirus is the same as regular flu is wrong. It has a higher mortality rate and is for more infectious. it is also a greater risk to people with pre-existing health conditions than normal flu. Those are the facts Patrick. Just for once in your life accepting them.

    that’s pure speculative bull. You have no idea what covids death rate is, and in the same time period the seasonal flue has killed twice as many people.

    Those are the facts Dave regular flu since Jan 1 133,731, Corona 97,039 since Jan 1. and both are still killing people.

    Add to the fact that the regular flu has known treatment and vaccines it has killed more and will kill more even with vaccines.

  42. sorry not twice as many, but more and with medicine designed to treat it. The FACTS prove seasonal flu is more deadly by the numbers.

  43. You didn’t offend me Patrick.
    You once again made a claim without evidence to back it up. Facts not opinions Patrick as you seem to believe they are. your belief that I’m panicking when I’m showing no obvious signs of panicking is not evidence for me panicking. Do you understand?
    I tell you what, I’ve made loads of posts about the coronavirus ,why don’t you point to just one post that shows me ‘panicking’. And being concerned about a virus that is killing people is not panicking.

  44. Patrick

    If this new virus is no deadlier than seasonal flu, why are hospital and medical services around the world being physically transformed and overwhelmed by the need to hugely ramp up Intensive care facilities with massive portable hospital facilities being built by the military in cities across the globe. That doesn’t happen with the regular flu ?

  45. Patrick Van Roy,

    that’s pure speculative bull. You have no idea what covids death rate is, and in the same time period the seasonal flue has killed twice as many people.

    How is that ball Patrick? are you claiming that coronavirus is not more infectious than ordinary flu and doesn’t kill more people with pre-existing health conditions?
    Even at this early stage we know that those two things are true.

    Those are the facts Dave regular flu since Jan 1 133,731, Corona 97,039 since Jan 1. and both are still killing people.

    I’m not disputing that regular flu has killed more people so far, you’re strawman me again. What I said is, and let me repeat this, virus is worse than normal flu. How much worse, remains to be seen.

    Let’s have a little bet Patrick. I predict that by the end of the year, this virus will have killed at least a million people worldwide. Which is more than the 650,000 that regular flu kills in a bad year. Do you agree or disagree with that?

  46. As of January 31, way more people were being killed by auto accidents than the virus, so according to the kvetchers and just asking questions guys, that means that the virus was not a problem.

  47. https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/coronavirus-is-now-the-leading-cause-of-death-in-america/

    COVID-19 — the illness caused by the novel coronavirus spreading across the globe — is now the No. 1 cause of death in the US, where it is killing more people every day than heart disease or cancer, according to a report.

    A new graph published this week by Dr. Maria Danilychev, a San Diego-based physician, showed the disease causes 1,970 deaths across the country per day, according to Newsweek.

  48. The great mind of the constitution, guns, climate, politics, and the invention of e-mail is now turning his attention to medicine, pandemics and global recovery. How could we not benefit from his insights?

  49. How is that ball Patrick? are you claiming that coronavirus is not more infectious than ordinary flu and doesn’t kill more people with pre-existing health conditions?
    Even at this early stage we know that those two things are true.

    It’s not a strawman Dave the Cicom Flu is not worse than the Seasonal Flu. Both are Flu viruses, both spread exactly the same way, the seasonal Flu has vaccines and is still killing more people in the same time period.

    That’s not a strawman argument it’s apples to apples.

    Phantom

    As of January 31, way more people were being killed by auto accidents than the virus, so according to the kvetchers and just asking questions guys, that means that the virus was not a problem.

    Where have I said the virus is not a problem, where have I said it’s not a viscous killer to be concerned about? NOWHERE, but a little perspective is needed.

    Putting in it’s proper place, it’s a deadly virulent flu. Nothing more.

  50. Patrick as I said i my earlier comment..

    If this new virus is no deadlier than seasonal flu, why are hospital and medical services around the world being physically transformed and overwhelmed by the need to hugely ramp up Intensive care facilities with massive portable hospital facilities being built by the military in cities across the globe. That doesn’t happen with the regular flu ?

  51. Mahons, on April 10th, 2020 at 4:28 PM Said: Edit Comment
    The great mind of the constitution, guns, climate, politics, and the invention of e-mail is now turning his attention to medicine, pandemics and global recovery. How could we not benefit from his insights?

    Pick anyone of those topics and lets debate. C’mon I dare ya 😉

    Hell lets debate The Law….. pick the subject Mahons. Anytime, Any subject.

  52. Invention of e-mail. Your guy didn’t invent it.

  53. If this new virus is no deadlier than seasonal flu, why are hospital and medical services around the world being physically transformed and overwhelmed by the need to hugely ramp up Intensive care facilities with massive portable hospital facilities being built by the military in cities across the globe. That doesn’t happen with the regular flu ?

    Because it’s a NEW Flu virus and there is no general immunity to it. Now I can’t speak to the rest of the world, but other than NYC in spite of the panic the hospitals have not been over run. 1000s of these ventilators are just sitting and the ICU beds are not overflowing into the halls.

  54. The FACTS prove seasonal flu is more deadly by the numbers.

    Oh God, Patrick, you are so very, very wrong.

    In the last week of March, there were more 40% deaths from coronavirus in New York than the average number of deaths from any cause at that time of year.

    The number of deaths from coronavirus in NY QUADRUPLED from this already incredibly high level in the week after that. They are literally burying bodies in the parks, FFS.

    The numbers are on entirely a different level from the seasonal flu.

  55. he wasn’t my guy, and I’ve said I put that post up just to be nudge. Now your position is that I’m a Liar.

    Ok so someone(me) who has a degree in Computer Science and has stated that the post wasn’t serious is lying. That I believe this guy invented email…. and I guess I also believe Al Gore invented the Internet?

    Now logically since you’ve called me a liar for 20yrs I’m lying. I don’t know one of the 3 fields I am a trained expert in. (computers).

    Isn’t actually the more logical position that you are just once again trying to exert that I am a liar as you have failed to try and exert for the past 20yrs?

    If that isn’t the more logical answer Why not?

    Elaborate. Defend your position that I am lying.

  56. Masterson

    In the last week of March, there were more 40% deaths from coronavirus in New York than the average number of deaths from any cause at that time of year.

    The number of deaths from coronavirus in NY QUADRUPLED from this already incredibly high level in the week after that. They are literally burying bodies in the parks, FFS.

    The numbers are on entirely a different level from the seasonal flu.

    As I said NYC is the ONLY city in the US that is a disaster basing your argument on just NYC shows it’s weakness.

    Tell me why NYC has been hit so hard? Can you identify the reason? No one else can as of yet. It doesn’t get the most travelers from China. California gets 7000 people from China a DAY, why haven’t they have been hit as hard in SanFran or LA as NYC?

    There are factors that are missing. You want to just focus on the only hotspot in the US and ignore the rest of the country mainly California. If you can’t explain why NYC has been hit harder than LA and SanFran your argument doesn’t hold water.

  57. Awaiting your response Mahons

  58. I believe you thought Dr. Shiva supported your long standing claim that those who have warned about the danger of climate change are engaged in a hoax. I think you posted it without checking him out, his prior claims, or the nonsense he has peddled through the years. I believe that your claim you did it for a “nudge” is an attempt to cover up your embarrassment. You’ve given me no reason to believe otherwise.

  59. When was the last time a Brit PM was hospitalised in an ICU with seasonal flu?

    When was the last time the Ialian Army were used to ferry corpses to other towns to be cremated because of seasonal flu?

    When was the lats time Spanish hospitals diverted ill people to other places because of seasonal flu?

    When was the last time there was inter continental restrictions placed on travel & movement because of seasonal flu?

    This is like seasonal flu in the sunse that it’s a viral infection except this seems to be much, much, much more contagious.

  60. NYC does have much social/business/connecting flight travel with China.

    Many such travelers would connect in say San Francisco, even though there are multiple nonstops from JFK and Newark to Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai every day in normal times.

    There is thought that the bug entered NYC in a major way not from China but from Europe. NYC has dozens and dozens of nonstop flights to all big European cities every day in normal times.

    I flew internationally to and from Bermuda in late February. When I entered Bermuda on February 24 , the immigration line was slow, since they were grilling everyone about their travel and their medical condition. When I went through US immigration the following day, there were no questions on these things.

  61. New York has a far greater population density, it is the number one destination for international visitors, and New York has been testing more and thus finding more cases. I think San Fran also had a stay in place protocol that helped stopped the spread there.

  62. California and Washington state did a really impressive job at shutting this down.

    There are a huge number of Europeans and others who make a connection at JFK or Newark, even if they don’t visit NYC. That’s a good thing, but it’s not good if a few of them have the bug, and they pass it on to NYC travelers and airport workers, etc.

  63. You’ve given me no reason to believe otherwise.

    except my honest statement that I hadn’t even bothered to play the clip, that I put it up just because I liked the caption.

    I ask you with everything I have shared on this site, including the occasional rarity that I have gotten something wrong…. have I ever shown embarrassment? And yet you insist that I’m lying.

    Really Mahons look at your position. Out of the list of topics you list above the thing you finally actually for the first time in 20yrs decide to engage in a debate in you chose to debate that I’m a Liar. An “opinion” of yours. Not one based in fact. You can find where I have gotten something wrong, but you have NEVER shown where I have lied.

    You can’t, because I don’t. I don’t need to, never have.

    So the debate is why after 20yrs of failing to show anywhere or anything I have ever lied about that you chose that to debate on.

    We are debating your personal feelings….. nothing with any facts that you can hold up as an example to fortify your position that the post was serious and a lie, and not one post or comment to backup your personal feelings on my lack of integrity.

    That Mohons is a view you can not defend with fact.

  64. The main reason NYC in my view was hit so hard is very simple. It’s called the Subway. As for incoming travelers the virus didn’t come from Europe, it came from China. 7000 people a day fly into Ca from China, NYC can’t touch that number and you can’t combine all of Europe as the origin or even the majority of incoming contaminated people.

    You could now but not at the beginning.

  65. 943
    New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

    “The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

    A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

    The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

    Please share your findings with the scientific community.

  66. // Noel, on April 10th, 2020 at 2:23 PM Said:

    //COVID19 has killed almost 17,000 in just a few weeks.//

    I posted that just 4 hours ago. Now the figure stands at 18,000.

    Do 250 Americans die from the common flu every hour?

  67. I’m not interested in debating your relationship with credibility. I think everyone is entitled to their opinion on the credibility of the writers here (or elsewhere). I have my opinion on that issue, and I’m hardly unique in that opinion. I don’t know why anyone would have to change their opinion simply because you want them to. As always, you seem to need the topic to be you. It isn’t an interesting topic.

  68. It is interesting that some speak with such thundering certainty despite having no knowledge at all, while those who have the knowledge ( Fauci, Osterholm, those cited by me above ) are a little more careful about the conclusions that they reach.

  69. New York City gets over 1 million Chinese visitors per year.
    The subway is a factor too. It is crowded in NYC.

  70. Many New Yorkers, many Americans go to China on business and pleasure.

    I’ve traveled there twice.

    China used to be remote. It’s not now.

  71. Is this post serious or a joke?

    If it is serious it is a dangerous minimization of a world-wide pandemic which so far has caused over 100k deaths. It has been in circulation only three months and nobody can predict when it will end.

    There is little panic but much sadness as loved ones lose family and friends.

    Comparing coronavirus to seasonal flu is clearly erroneous and a feeble attempt at excuse making. The question should be – how do we prevent so many seasonal flu deaths.

    Th statement that governments have acted quickly and to the best of their abilities is so ludicrous it makes me think the entire post is a joke. However, the author continues pretending seriousness in the above responses, and that is a degree of sustained subtlety I doubt the author possesses.

  72. The US national response was very poor, and it continues to be poor.

  73. Patrick.

    You smoke huge cigars correct?

    You will be fine.

    I might have to think about sparking up again..

    Smoking makes you cough
    Coughing clears your lungs
    So the more you smoke, the clearer your lungs get ……

    😉

  74. Smoking tobacco or pot, or vaping appears to make you more susceptible to the virus.

  75. Phantom.

    Hmmmm.

    Not so sure about that.

    Yes, the puritans will be on the March, let’s wait to see if anyone has any firm data on that.

  76. A smokers’s cough is the body’s way of warning you not to do it.

    Goes for pot, goes for tobacco.

  77. Smoking increases the possibility of bronchial infection and illness and this virus seems to have a particular effect on the lungs hence those with bronchial problems being particularly at risk.

    And I say this as a smoker.

  78. Phantom.

    Puritanical bile will kill you first.

    😉

  79. As I said NYC is the ONLY city in the US that is a disaster basing your argument on just NYC shows it’s weakness.

    On the contrary, Patrick, a single counter-example is all that is needed to disprove a hypothesis. NYC is a vivid illustration that this is a far more virulent, unpleasant disease than any flu of the last 60 years.

    In addition, infection rates are *far* higher in other states than they have been for any recent flu, even if NYC is the outlier for deaths.

    Why NYC? It has an enormous population density and a huge influx of visitors every day. In fact China seems to have been an unimportant source of early infections: Italy and northern Europe in general may have been more important. Crucially, NYC was infected *early*. Other cities had longer to prepare for the onslaught.

    It will be interesting (although also scary) to see what happens in Florida, where the state governor has been far less cautious than elsewhere.

  80. When you combine JFK and Newark, NYC is vastly bigger than any other US city for international air travelers

    It would be by far the largest gateway to Europe.

    https://skift.com/2014/01/29/20-top-airports-for-international-travel-to-and-from-the-u-s/

  81. I have been quite busy today, but I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that male overweight BAME are making up a large percentage of those Covid-19 victims in NY?

    Phantom.

    Is this the case?

  82. I had to look up the term BAME – not used here?

    I do not know the answer

    Anecdotally, many are older. most are male. Some are physically fit police officers and others who appeared to be in good shape.

  83. Phantom..

    Here you are..

    The coronavirus can infect anybody but African Americans are dying in disproportionate numbers, especially in certain big cities

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/its-a-racial-justice-issue-black-americans-are-dying-in-greater-numbers-from-covid-19

  84. Anecdotally, many are older. most are male. Some are physically fit police officers and others who appeared to be in good shape.

    I was having some thoughts about this today Phantom..

    I suspect that those with existing health issues, or underlying health issues, known or unknown is probably about every human being on the planet.

    They just don’t know it yet?

  85. Many working class black and white people don’t have proper health care in this country

    So if they have other issues – including hypertension – which they may not even know about – or if they smoke ( I think that more blacks than whites smoke ) or if they have bad diet/are overweight – they are vulnerable.

  86. More blacks than others have hypertension – a huge risk factor for the virus

    It is very possible that people here have high blood pressure an are not aware of it.

    Now think if you are obese, have hypertension and are a smoker of both tobacco and pot? You would be very compromised.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db289.htm

  87. I think that more blacks than whites smoke

    Well, weed anyway.

  88. So if they have other issues – including hypertension – which they may not even know about – or if they smoke ( I think that more blacks than whites smoke ) or if they have bad diet/are overweight – they are vulnerable.

    Yup I’ve just read a whole article about this funnily enough.

    Black and other ethnic minority patients make up more than 25% of those who die from coronavirus in intensive care in UK hospitals, a disproportionate number. Black Afro-Caribbeans especially.

    Some of this is undoubtedly socio-economic: in general they are less wealthy, have worse diet and lifestyle. They’re less healthy in general. BUT there also seems to be a genetic factor that means that their lungs are inherently more vulnerable to the secondary effects of the infection.

    Some of the media commentators on race issues have been misrepresenting this as solely the result of oppression and conveniently ignoring what appears to be a genuine biological difference between people of different ethnic backgrounds.

  89. Masterson.

    Also, I have been reading some serious reports on ventilators doing more harm than good?

    Any thoughts?

  90. By the way, my wife has tried to explain to me today, that being on a ventilator which is controlled for a few hours, is not a problem.

    Being on a ventilator for days upon end is a death wish?

  91. It is very possible that people here have high blood pressure an are not aware of it.

    Yep. As we were commenting about recently.

  92. Masterson.

    Also, I have been reading some serious reports on ventilators doing more harm than good?

    Any thoughts?

    Being on a ventilator for a long period of time is not good for your lungs. No doubt about it.

    However, if you can’t breathe for yourself, there is no alternative.

    Mechanical ventilation has always been the treatment of last resort for patients with viral pneumonia. At present, 51% of COVID patients who are put on mechanical ventilation will die. More than half.

    But without mechanical ventilation, close to 100% of them would die.

    Short answer: ventilators aren’t ideal, but they are unquestionably life savers and miles better than letting people die.

  93. Paul

    Recently, I have had four major health checks, one from the company, two from the clinical team who monitors my health due to the Orion-4 clinical trials I have signed up to, and a further follow up with my GP.

    The heart surgeon, who is heading the clinical trials commented “those who survive a heart attack, usually end up a lot healthier than they were before”

    Diet, lifestyle changes etc, if that makes any sense?

    It’s those, that think they are healthy, and never get a regular check that are more at risk.

    You could be an Olympic athlete, and think you are as fit as a fiddle, but have no idea what is going on inside your body.

  94. Masterson.

    Many thanks.

    So my wife was correct.

  95. You see this is bullshit plain and simple I offered in response to your comment

    Mahons, on April 10th, 2020 at 4:28 PM Said: Edit Comment
    The great mind of the constitution, guns, climate, politics, and the invention of e-mail is now turning his attention to medicine, pandemics and global recovery. How could we not benefit from his insights?

    Pick anyone of those topics or your field the Law and I’ll debate you. Your response was

    Mahons, on April 10th, 2020 at 5:39 PM Said: Edit Comment
    I believe you thought Dr. Shiva supported your long standing claim that those who have warned about the danger of climate change are engaged in a hoax. I think you posted it without checking him out, his prior claims, or the nonsense he has peddled through the years. I believe that your claim you did it for a “nudge” is an attempt to cover up your embarrassment. You’ve given me no reason to believe otherwise.

    So you totally ignore ALL the topics that you flaunt at me and even your own profession and instead you attack my integrity. You call me a Liar. I don’t get upset I respond to your attack on my inegrity with civil analysis of it.

    Patrick Van Roy, on April 10th, 2020 at 6:12 PM Said: Edit Comment
    You’ve given me no reason to believe otherwise.

    except my honest statement that I hadn’t even bothered to play the clip, that I put it up just because I liked the caption.

    I ask you with everything I have shared on this site, including the occasional rarity that I have gotten something wrong…. have I ever shown embarrassment? And yet you insist that I’m lying.

    Really Mahons look at your position. Out of the list of topics you list above the thing you finally actually for the first time in 20yrs decide to engage in a debate in you chose to debate that I’m a Liar. An “opinion” of yours. Not one based in fact. You can find where I have gotten something wrong, but you have NEVER shown where I have lied.

    You can’t, because I don’t. I don’t need to, never have.

    So the debate is why after 20yrs of failing to show anywhere or anything I have ever lied about that you chose that to debate on.

    We are debating your personal feelings….. nothing with any facts that you can hold up as an example to fortify your position that the post was serious and a lie, and not one post or comment to backup your personal feelings on my lack of integrity.

    That Mohons is a view you can not defend with fact.

    and then then you have the balls and lack of any integrity of your own with this

    Mahons, on April 10th, 2020 at 6:25 PM Said: Edit Comment
    I’m not interested in debating your relationship with credibility. I think everyone is entitled to their opinion on the credibility of the writers here (or elsewhere). I have my opinion on that issue, and I’m hardly unique in that opinion. I don’t know why anyone would have to change their opinion simply because you want them to. As always, you seem to need the topic to be you. It isn’t an interesting topic.

    LMAO….. Mahons you’re a coward and fraud. You lack the balls to even debate on your own terms. How sad in 20 years years not once have you ever taken the challenge to debate me.

    It has nothing to do with your imaginary stance that I have no credibility and everything to do with the fact that you don’t want to be embarrassed by me running rings around you.

    Over the past 20 years it is you who has proven not that I lack credibility, but that you lack a set.

    Thank You for the providing the perfect example of a gutless weasel.

  96. Masterson you can’t just look at the S-hole of NYC you have to look at the whole country. The only thing NYC shows is that the people running it are incompetent.

    Phantom it was Chinese trafic that brought the virus in NOT international traffic and California gets 7000 travelers from China a day NYC all 3 airports DON’T.

  97. and on that note it’s time to watch the new series War of the Worlds.

  98. Patrick Van Roy, on April 10th, 2020 at 9:10 PM Said:
    and on that note it’s time to watch the new series War of the Worlds.

    Up to date on that one Patrick

    It’s superb.

  99. Disease experts, not email inventors, have noted the impact of international travel from Europe as a source that explains the impact on the Big Apple.

  100. //and on that note it’s time to watch the new series War of the Worlds.

    Up to date on that one Patrick

    It’s superb.//

    Will you guys ever take up a book, for God’s sake?

    TV and “movies” and series are usually a waste of time and make people (even more) stupid.

  101. What do the disease experts know?

    Best to get the FACTS from Rush, ” the Great One ” and ” Honest ” Donald Trump.

  102. //More blacks than others have hypertension – a huge risk factor for the virus//

    I read that in Milwakee (spelling?), blacks account for 30 pc of the population, 50 pc of corona cases and 75 pc of all corona deaths. Chicago has similar figures.
    Lifestyle is obviously one factor, but relative poverty probably is too. Also, when people don’t have to pay for a trip to the doctor, they’ll probably make that trip more spontaneously for a checkup than someone who has a habit of sitting out any ailments because he has to pay for treatment.

    But the pattern seems to be, first, scary high rates of infections, then a period of high death ratess, then a levelling off of infections and a gradual decline mortality. Thus the way of Italy and Spain, now the UK and the UK, and I think there’s now grounds for optimism that they too will see a fall in cases and deaths afer a difficult week or two.

  103. Noel

    You old fuddy-duddy you.

    😏

  104. Harri, did I tell you I’m getting 3,600 E’s from VW as compensation for the loss of value of my Tiguan diesel? Now, I’m going to have my Tiggy till the day I – or it – dies, so screw the loss of value. Still, I’m very grateful for the dosh.
    Hope all these losses don’t take away from your pension.

  105. It’s Milwaukee

    There are a few things at play here.

    If you go to any poor area in the US you will see a zillion liquor stores along with fast food places and not too many fruit and veg stands. But I don’t think that its any open and shut poverty issue. You can eat very healthily for less money than what the fast food places will charge you.

    Guys like us can work fine from home, but the working poor – and there are many of them – often must show up for work among people, or else not get paid.

  106. The heart surgeon, who is heading the clinical trials commented “those who survive a heart attack, usually end up a lot healthier than they were before”

    Diet, lifestyle changes etc, if that makes any sense?

    It does, I have a friend here from Dublin who went to the doctor with pains in his chest at the end of August. They whipped him in immediately and did a triple by pass. He’s lost a huge amount of weight, (he was heavy before but I’d say only moderately overweight), has stopped smoking completely, has cut down immensley on red meat and watches his diet, drinks occasionally and walks everywhere whereas before he would drive the length of himself and feels much better.

  107. Harri,

    Being on a ventilator for days upon end is a death wish?

    Why?

  108. Nothing to say Mahons?

  109. I’ve made my point.

  110. which is you have zero integrity, and a total lack of Balls.

  111. Pat, your insistance on Trump being honest when it is indisputablably untrue is a dishonesty