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YELLOW PERIL ON THE WAY OUT

By Pete Moore On July 2nd, 2020

The media is breathless with excitement at the vast increase of Covid-19 cases across the US. It’s a change of tune. When New York was seeing a vast amount of elderly deaths the media was happy to look away. I wonder what’s different now?

But there is no vast increase in cases. The Hill reports today that testing labs are at “near capacity”. The only vast increase is in testing, which is catching cases that otherwise wouldn’t have been reported. We see also that the number of deaths is decreasing all the while. So either the virus is on the way out or it is rapidly becoming weaker. Either way, and as always, the media is playing the fear game.

42 Responses to “YELLOW PERIL ON THE WAY OUT”

  1. What planet are you on?

  2. Talk to a medical person, or anyone, in Texas, Florida or Arizona and ask them if there is a problem in those places.

    Talk to the governor of Texas, who has bravely reversed himself on this.

    Talk to Charles, or Daphne who are there and who know what is going on.

    For God’s sake what is the point of this post.

  3. The media did not look away when NY and NJ had the frightening increase in cases and deaths.

    We discussed the issue here at length. Do you forget the recent past? Why?

  4. lets explain a bit of science to petem
    The blue line is reported current cases 7 day average
    the brown line is record of deaths 7 day average

    Now we know that 2-6 weeks is an approximate period where people who have got the virus succumb and die. Many recover, in fact most recover . But this is a premature post , Mild cases typically recover within two weeks, while those with severe or critical diseases may take three to six weeks to recover.

    Its a mental post, the aim is to attack the media ,undermine the free press and destabilise the West, so at least on that you’re consistent .. how much does Putin pay ya ?

  5. I have known of several friends of friends who have contracted covid. All of them are young people. We’re not out of the woods here yet.

    Deaths are down. That could be because our most vulnerable have already died, or our treatments are getting better.

  6. Charles

    The sharp rise in cases, due largely to recklessness in the general public, is concerning.

    A lot of these cases are young people who will be spreading it to parents or others.

    I fear that a rise in deaths will follow.

    There are many vulnerable people in the US, and I don’t buy for a minute that the most vulnerable have died already. You don’t hear Fauci say that.

  7. “To tell you the truth, what worries me is not this week, where we’re still kind of handling it,” said Roberta Schwartz, Houston Methodist’s chief innovation officer, who’s been helping lead the system’s efforts to expand beds for COVID-19 patents. “I’m really worried about next week.”

    What’s happening in Houston draws eerie parallels to New York City in late March, when every day brought steep increases in the number of patients seeking care at overburdened hospitals — though, so far, with far fewer deaths. But as coronavirus cases surge in Texas, state officials here have not reimplemented the same lockdown measures that experts say helped bring New York’s outbreak under control, raising concern among public health officials that Houston won’t be able to flatten the curve.

    “The time to act and time to be alarmed is not when you’ve hit capacity, but it’s much earlier when you start to see hospitalizations increase at a very fast rate,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of integrative biology who leads the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. “It is definitely time to take some kind of action. It is time to be alarmed.”

    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/01/coronavirus-texas-houston-hospitals-cases-surge/

  8. Phantom

    The young that I’ve heard about coming down with Covid is really concerning. What makes me mad, however, is their friends that have come into close contact with them and have been told to self isolate. Guess what? They won’t! They blow it off.

  9. I was young and stupid once, but I don’t think that I was that stupid.

    Many just don’t care. All over the US.

    ” If it won’t kill me so what “

  10. that’s a terrible state of affairs charles, we’re trying to get the message out
    “Its not about YOU to these young people, its about the likelihood of you infecting others”
    same as the reason for wearing a mask

  11. Trump and Boris Johnson did not take this seriously and as far as I can see neither take it seriously enough now.

    This has been a destructive signal to many, from the top.

  12. Its also terribkle for USA people that COVID-19 has been politicized to such a high degree, its has no respect to persons, I can’t think of any country that is even close to the degree that its being politicised as the States.
    This virus comes with a health warning , if it can, it will KIll you.

    petem straight up
    Is the media the enemy of the people ? yes/no ?

  13. I am seeing some fairly young people who have died, and others who have suffered badly.

    But yes, no biggie. It’s just the Bruce Lee Kung Flu. Ha ha big joke.

  14. The US and UK have become something of a laughing stock around the world over the past few months.

  15. The US is without a proper leader. We have an ” anti leader ” if there is such a thing.

    The UK has a big hair fumbler and bluffer in charge.

  16. Ireland only opened on Monday of this week. There is a lot of ill advised stuff, some outright reckless stuff, going on. We’ve had large BLM protests outside the US embassy in Dublin with zero social distancing, MEPs flying in from Brussels and not isolating, an (ironically) illegal gathering at the funeral if a Garda shot whilst on duty.

    Let us see where we are in 5 or 6 weeks.

  17. Petr

    Ireland’s tourist law is that you must isolate for 14 days on arrival (MEPs excluded). We intend to do so, but how many tourists will? You can be fined and arrested if caught breaking the isolation, and you must give immigration your phone number and hotel.

  18. This virus apparently can be fairly well managed if people are smart.

    But a lot of westerners aren’t being smart at all.

    Other countries / states are trying to teach fairly easy lessons on how to manage it, but you cannot teach one who refuses to learn.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-masks.html

  19. It is a crime if any politicians are immune from quarantine rules.

  20. This seems a better summary:
    https://twitter.com/covid19tracking/status/1278809676801470464?s=21

    Seems like some combo of:
    * deaths aren’t falling everywhere, they are going up in Arizona and Texas for example
    * demographics maybe changing, skewing younger
    * there’s a lag between symptoms and death and reporting of deaths, so more deaths unfortunately likely to be in the post
    * it’s still to early to say

  21. Oh and
    * it’s not due to more testing

  22. These guys want to declare victory every five minutes.

    They have the attention span of a gnat.

    This will take some time to fully understand, much less to defeat it.

  23. Yes, anyone with a diplomatic passport is immune. Also people traveling from NI are immune. So, if you wanted to be a smartass and go LHR to Belfast and drive to Dublin you wouldn’t have to isolate the way the law is written. But we want to do what’s right.

  24. This is just Pete’s faithful contribution to Trump’s “Let’s feel good, forget the virus and get me re-elected” campaign !

  25. Phantom,

    I am seeing some fairly young people who have died, and others who have suffered badly.

    This virus is definitely worse than normal flu but to be fair, the vast majority of young people aren’t badly affected by it.

  26. What in the world will you be doing stuck in a hotel for 14 days?

    You can’t have visitors right?

  27. The same thing I do at home-Nothing! Computer, read the Irish Times, sleep off the jet lag, take walks around the hotel. Not supposed to have visitors, But ATWers aren’t exactly lining up the welcome wagon either! It’s either follow Irish law, or lose $5,000 in airline tix.

  28. Oh dear – Phantom really has got himself into a panic, and appears to be enjoying it so much that he’s been in it for several months 🙂

    All claims duly sub-linked in the main link below:

    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    Overview

    1. According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu).
    2. In countries like the US, the UK, and also Sweden (without a lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season; in countries like Germany, Austria and Switzerland, overall mortality is in the range of a mild influenza season.
    3. Even in global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.
    4. Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 95% of all persons develop at most moderate symptoms.
    5. Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to Covid-19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses). The initial assumption that there was no immunity against Covid-19 was not correct.
    6. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years (e.g. 86 years in Sweden) and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
    7. In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.
    8. Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
    9. Even in so-called “Covid19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.
    10. Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 turned out to be false: many of these young people either did not die from Covid19, they had already been seriously ill (e.g. from undiagnosed leukaemia), or they were in fact 109 instead of 9 years old. The claimed increase in Kawasaki disease in children also turned out to be false.
    11. Strong increases in regional mortality can occur if there is a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick as a result of infection or panic, or if there are additional risk factors such as severe air pollution. Questionable regulations for dealing with the deceased sometimes led to additional bottlenecks in funeral or cremation services.
    12. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent the UK and the US, hospital overloads due to strong flu waves are not unusual. Moreover, this year up to 15% of health care workers were put into quarantine, even if they developed no symptoms.
    13. The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (i.e. the positive rate) remained constant at 5% to 25% or increased only slightly. In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.
    14. Countries without curfews and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea, Belarus or Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries.
    15. The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.
    16. Contrary to original assumptions, various studies have shown that there is no evidence of the virus spreading through aerosols (i.e. tiny particles floating in the air) or through smear infections (e.g. on door handles or smartphones). The main modes of transmission are direct contact and droplets produced when coughing or sneezing.
    17. There is also no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in healthy or asymptomatic individuals. On the contrary, experts warn that such masks interfere with normal breathing and may become “germ carriers”. Leading doctors called them a “media hype” and “ridiculous”.
    18. Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. Millions of surgeries and therapies were cancelled, including many cancer screenings and organ transplants.
    19. Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population.
    20. The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors and can produce false positive and false negative results. Moreover, the official virus test was not clinically validated due to time pressure and may sometimes react positive to other coronaviruses.
    21. Numerous internationally renowned experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend rapid natural immunisation of the general population and protection of risk groups.
    22. At no time was there a medical reason for the closure of schools, as the risk of disease and transmission in children is extremely low. There is also no medical reason for small classes, masks or ‘social distancing’ rules in schools.
    23. The claim that only (severe) Covid-19 but not influenza may cause venous thrombosis and pulmonary (lung) embolism is not true, as it has been known for 50 years that severe influenza greatly increases the risk of thrombosis and embolism, too.
    24. Several medical experts described express coronavirus vaccines as unnecessary or even dangerous. Indeed, the vaccine against the so-called swine flu of 2009, for example, led to sometimes severe neurological damage and lawsuits in the millions. In the testing of new coronavirus vaccines, too, serious complications and failures have already occurred.
    25. A global influenza or corona pandemic can indeed extend over several seasons, but many studies of a “second wave” are based on very unrealistic assumptions, such as a constant risk of illness and death across all age groups.
    26. Several nurses, e.g. in New York City, described an oftentimes fatal medical mis­manage­ment of Covid patients due to questionable financial incentives or inappropriate medical protocols.
    27. The number of people suffering from unemployment, depressions and domestic violence as a result of the measures has reached historic record values. Several experts predict that the measures will claim far more lives than the virus itself. According to the UN 1.6 billion people around the world are at immediate risk of losing their livelihood.
    28. NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the “corona crisis” will be used for the permanent expansion of global surveillance. Renowned virologist Pablo Goldschmidt spoke of a “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures”. Leading British virologist Professor John Oxford spoke of a “media epidemic”.
    29. More than 600 scientists have warned of an “unprecedented surveillance of society” through problematic apps for “contact tracing”. In some countries, such “contact tracing” is already carried out directly by the secret service. In several parts of the world, the population is already being monitored by drones and facing serious police overreach.
    30. A 2019 WHO study on public health measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”. Nevertheless, contact tracing apps have already become partially mandatory in several countries.

  29. Charles

    You more than anybody here should be angry at Abbott and Trump.

    Their actions and their example have led to the unnecessary big flareups which directly led to the continued restrictions on US travelers.

    If the US had been serious about this, it would have been a different deal for you.

  30. “According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1%”

    But that’s not true. According to the latest studies IFR is in the range of 0.5-1%, which is an order of magnitude higher.

    For example this is 2 weeks old and puts the IFR at 0.6%: https://osf.io/wdbpe/

    See also: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

  31. Phantom

    Maybe, but I try to only worry about what I can control, and I can’t control Covid or Irish travel law. I do wish I had not picked the worst year in a century to travel, but it is what it is. My choice is either make the best of it or lose the money. As Petr says, we’ll see how the situation in the ROI unfolds. They may shut back down altogether!

  32. Phantom

    Maybe, but I try to only worry about what I can control, and I can’t control Covid or Irish travel law. I do wish I had not picked the worst year in a century to travel, but it is what it is. My choice is either make the best of it or lose the money. As Petr says, we’ll see how the situation in the ROI unfolds. They may shut back down altogether!

  33. Charles

    I think you are making the right decisions under the circumstances. You will be in Ireland and lose the price of the tickets. Depending on when you travel the Irish government may drop the 14 day self-isolation requirement; there is strong push-back on it from the travel industry. Keep up with the news from Ireland. I don’t know what hotels you are staying in but some are really good and situated in beautiful parks of landscaped grounds. And, you can spend a few hours a day reading the Irish Times.

  34. Charles — The timing of your trip is unfortunate but I have no doubt you’ll enjoy it. Everything is basically open here, with some tweaks. Hopefully the weather will hold up. It’s been a pretty decent summer here so far.

  35. Thanks guys. We’re staying for 14 days at the Crown Plaza near the airport, which is right next to a park, then the Merrion next to St. Stephen’s Green for 10 days. We’re lucky that right now the hotels are cheaper than usual.

  36. Charles

    Have a great trip. I’m sure you will enjoy the excellent Merrion.

  37. The Merrion and the Georgian setting of that part of Dublin are wonderful.

  38. Charles

    Make sure you dip your wick in the Liffey, ( it will bring you luck). If the Garda question you, just mention my name, you’ll be fine 😉

  39. If Kilmainham Gaol is open take the tour it is quite good.

  40. If Charles takes my advice about the Liffey, he may well end up there 🙂

  41. Thanks guys,

    Colm, if a Garda asks me if the Liffey is cold, I’ll reply, ” Aye sir, and deep too!”

  42. Charles

    I hate to break it to you – 4 inches isn’t deep 🙂