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By Pete Moore On October 28th, 2020

Germany will have a November lockdown but schools and shops will stay open, Chancellor Angela Merkel has said, calling for a “major national effort” to fight coronavirus.

That widespread acclamation of German mastery of the epidemic lasted all of a few months. In the end their experts turned out to be as dull-witted, closed-minded and free of concern for other people’s jobs as our experts. France looks like it’s going the same way, so ditto for them too.

These experts continue to ignore World Health Organisation advice that lockdowns should be avoided because they only have bad outcomes. I note that they receive no criticism or questioning from the kind of media and people who would react like thir hair’s on fire if, say, Trump or Boris so blatantly ig nored such advice.

It remains the case that most of these positives are false. The only real epidemic consists of I wish I was in Stockholm Syndrome. Most of the world must have it by now.


  1. Germany posted over 6,000 new cases. Levels like this have not been seen since the start of the pandemic.

    Following the alarming surge, top officials urged people in Germany to stick to restrictions to stop the virus spreading.

    “It’s important to understand that we are not powerless against this virus. We can do something, we all can make a difference every day,”
    Health Minister Spahn told public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk on Thursday.

  2. Germany posted over 6,000 new cases. Levels like this have not been seen since the start of the pandemic.

    6K new unverified positive “cases”……… So no-one actually ill ?

    The new level of reported “cases” has nothing to do with more testing ??

    Step away from the keyboard, Kurt, you’re a danger to yourself.

  3. https://georank.org/covid/germany/united-states


    Japan vs Germany on covid = Japan has performed much better

    Germany vs USA on covid = Germany has performed much better

    Which country has more of a disciplined mask-wearing culture in times like these?

  4. Last night we highlighted the new Kansas study that shows counties with mask mandates have half the new cases of counties without them:

    Kinda ends the thread really that one .

    Got anything on the poor young family from Kurdistan all dead today trying to flee persecution .?

  5. Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) Tweeted:
    This is as simple as science gets. Masks work. https://t.co/wOneK8VDmT

  6. The mask shirkers will be condemned by history.

    There was never any real point to their movement. It was ” I don’t feel like wearing one “, nothing more.

    They have done the most enormous damage to their countries.

  7. “Germany posted over 6,000 new cases.”

    6000 positive tests, from a highly unreliable test which is known to produce a high propertion of false positives.

    A case is a positive test and a diagnosis.

  8. One thing that bothers me is why the number of cases is now rising so steeply when almost everyone is wearing masks and otherwise following distancing restrictions etc.

    Also, in Germany at the start of the summer there had been just over 9,000 COVID deaths. Now there have been just over 10,000 deaths in total (And 1000 deaths over five months isn’t too worrying, which is why almost nobody here is as concerned as folk seem to be in other places.) But the number of deaths in the UK was over four times higher then and is still 4x higher now. You can understand how some countries were caught unprepared, but how come, after all we’ve learned about the disease and the almost universal safeguards in place in both countries, there are still four people dying in the UK for every one death in Germany.

  9. Would you not think that there are more in the UK than in Germany who refuse to wear masks, out of laziness, complete disregard for the rights and health of their neighbor and or because of politics?

    I don’t think that there are universal safeguards there ( or here ) . There may be a lot of good policies, but I think that there are many in the population who blow them off.

  10. It remains the case that most of these positives are false.

    You make a reasonable argument against lockdowns and then spoil it with a bullshit statement like that. We would have no pandemic if that was a true statement.

  11. Macron has gone for full lockdown for at least a month. There are plenty of lockdown zealots in the UK who would love to do likewise:

    “French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown for at least until the end of November. Mr Macron said that under the new measures, starting on Friday, people would only be allowed to leave home for essential work or medical reasons. Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants and bars, will close, but schools and factories will remain open.”


  12. Noel –

    The UK and Germany had, and continue to have, different criteria for what constitutes a Covid death. In short, it’s always been much tighter in Germany.

    From the start until (IIRC) July, a Covid death in the UK was anyone who was dead and had ever been tested postive for the virus. You could get it in March, recover, fall under a bus in June and hey presto it’s a Covid death. I’m not joking, this was the criteria. Anyone who dies gets checked on a national register of positive tests. If your name was on it then you were a Covid death no matter how you died.

    Also these thousands of Covid deaths in care homes are not evidenced. It’s always been the case that if someone dies in a care home and the suspicion is that the deceased had the virus then that’s a Covid death. No test, no autopsy, just the suspicion alone among care home staff justifies it being entered on the death certificate.

    I don’t know why but UK authorities were so keen to count as many deaths as possible as Covid deaths that it broke the bounds of credulity. It’s been so laughable that no-one believes the official numbers.

    In the end Germany and the UK have broadly similar numbers, per capita, whatever those numbers are.

  13. //Would you not think that there are more in the UK than in Germany who refuse to wear masks, out of laziness, complete disregard for the rights and health of their neighbor and or because of politics?//

    I don’t see why there should be. The only recalcitrant groups I can think of are the silly young adults trying to defy authority and society’s rules, and maybe immigrants who haven’t been integrated properly. You don’t get the loony anarchist set in Germany as much as in the UK, but they are small anyway. Maybe the other two groups are somewhat larger in the UK (in Germany there is more monitoring of immigrants due to compulsory address registration for all, compulsory ID cards at all times etc.), but it still hardly accounts for only a quarter of the death rate compared to the UK continuing over the best part of a year.

  14. Sorry, hadn’t read Pete’s comment.

    If that’s the case, then the UK statistics are meaningless.

  15. Peter –

    We would have no pandemic if that was a true statement.

    We have a pandemic of testing and positive results. I’m not sure they faithfully record an accurate picture. The Wuhan Flu was a pandemic because it went global. Ohh scary word, but when do we speak of common cold or flu pandemics? We don’t, but they are no less global nor are thousands of other viruses and communicable diseases.

  16. The UK’s current statistics are totally valid because they only count covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Actual death numbers should be a lot lower because we have learned the hard way what treatments work for hospitalised patients and hopefully there will be no repeat of the disgraceful care homes fiasco in April where thousands of elderly patients were seen as expendable.

    In Our Wee Ulster the hospitals are being over-run, which was always a cert as there was zero spare capacity to start with and the annual flu admissions created annual crises. We are short thousands of medical staff due to unfilled vacancies, but this has been the case since forever. And now hundreds more staff are off either sick with the virus or isolating. Hundreds of cancer operations have already been cancelled and it can only get worse in the next few weeks. Unless there is a swift fall in hospital admissions we will have patients dying in corridors, even with improved Covid treatments.

    The schools are supposed to re-open next week. Yeah right. Teachers can probably look forward to another long break, certainly if they teach in secondary schools.

  17. Pete

    Do you agree that Europe and the US/Brazil have done much worse than east Asia on this thing, and if so, why?

  18. We have a pandemic of testing and positive results. I’m not sure they faithfully record an accurate picture.


    We can indulge in angels on pinheads arguments about testing, but there is no disputing hospital admissions of Covid patients. They are rising rapidly in most areas of the UK and most countries in Europe and most states in the USA. The survival rates will be much better than during the spring peak but we are still looking at a major health crisis. Let’s hope it’s a mild flu season. If not, we are truly ****ed.

  19. Peter –

    The UK’s current statistics are totally valid because they only count covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

    That was the change made in July or August time, after we found out how fraudulant the criteria was. It was so fraudulant it meant that a positive test destined you to a death attributed to Covid. Even so, being tested positive 28 days ago and dying today does not necessarily mean someone died of Covid. It is still fraudulant.


    Dr John Lee

    Normally, two doctors are needed to certify a death, one of whom has been treating the patient or who knows them and has seen them recently. That has changed. For Covid-19 only, the certification can be made by a single doctor, and there is no requirement for them to have examined, or even met, the patient. A video-link consultation in the four weeks prior to death is now felt to be sufficient for death to be attributed to Covid-19. For deaths in care homes the situation is even more extraordinary. Care home providers, most of whom are not medically trained, may make a statement to the effect that a patient has died of Covid-19. In the words of the Office for National Statistics, this ‘may or may not correspond to a medical diagnosis or test result, or be reflected in the death certification’. From 29 March the numbers of ‘Covid deaths’ have included all cases where Covid-19 was simply mentioned on the death certificate — irrespective of positive testing and whether or not it may have been incidental to, or directly responsible for, death.

    I posted that piece previously, but I recommend it again. UK reporting on these numbers has been an astonishing shitshow. It has quite magnificently combined bureaucratic madness and medical malpractice.

  20. Pete

    I read the Speccie most days and saw that piece a few weeks ago. I don’t see you arguing that Covid deaths could be getting under-counted because they omit anyone who dies after 28 days.

    In fact you seem to be arguing that no-one is dying from this disease. Or maybe you are going full Allan that the whole thing is a Soros Jewish conspiracy / Bill Gates hoax / Xi Zingping attempt to bring about world government? That’s certainly the QAnon line, or lines I should say.

  21. Peter –

    Few people are dying of Covid. Not no-one, just few.

    I love the power of propaganda. It’s fascinating. No-one on ATW has mentioned QAnon; not me, not Allan@Aberdeen, not even nutty commentators, but here you are citing QAnon because the left media has told you how dangerous it is.

    I can’t even tell you what QAnon is. No-one on the right talks about it. From moderate nationalism out to the extreme centre, literally no-one talks about it. It’s only a thing insofar as it’s a ghostly bogeyman held up to scare the left into voting and hating conservatives.

  22. Few people are dying of Covid. Not no-one, just few.


    In that case all the countries of Europe (including your beloved Poland and Czech and Hungary) and all 50 states in the USA are actively lying. Because they are reporting thousands of deaths every day. So those deaths must be from malaria or something. And those hospital admissions are just a coincidence, it’s just “the sniffles” or something. We know that people are admitted to hospital all the time if they have a bad cold.

    I suppose that just proves it’s a conspiracy, because they are all in on it! Even the good guys in Poland!

  23. “ Few people are dying of Covid. Not no-one, just few.”

    This is the sort of risk assessment that would have you not pull the ripcord until after you hit the ground.

    I didn’t hit the ground yesterday or the day before

    The deaths you refer to are due to cases arising about a month ago. The deaths that will come will be from cases today, and more still in the future after cases have continued doubling

    You don’t seem to get that the idea is stop deaths before they happen.

    It’s like staring out the rear view mirror while driving and saying “I don’t see any wall, it’s perfectly safe”

  24. “Deaths are going up 45% per week at the moment, and will hit 1000/day before the end of November if that doesn’t change.”


    “ 1279 COVID admissions in England today in the latest figures at england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta… Awfully large number of people breaking their leg and just happening to test positive for COVID because of a false positive PCR test if you ask me, but you’re the expert.”