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PLAN B

By David Vance On February 1st, 2012 at 8:55 pm

No, No, No! 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has urged the Government to consider a £20bn fiscal stimulus in the event of the eurozone break-up, saying a possible plan B should be outlined in the Budget.

That is EXACTLY what we do not need WHEN the Eurozone breaks up. Once again some people insist that you can spend your way out of recession when in fact it is the spending that weakens the economy in the first instance. The recipe to keep UK fortunes on the up once the Euro goes down is so simple that only a politician could miss it;

1. Cut personal taxes and allow people to keep more off their own cash.

2. Cut Corporation Taxes so business can invest in growth.

3. Reduce the State sector at all costs, cut Welfare, shrink Government interference in as many areas as possible. Foreign Aid needs to be cut and Quangos need axed.

4.  Accept that economic growth is the product of a motivated and free economy and not within the remit of ANY Government. The role of Government is to help create the conditions to enable enterprise to grow.

SHRINKING GROWTH

By David Vance On January 22nd, 2012 at 6:48 pm

Perhaps the most hollow debate going on in modern politics is the cri de coeur from those on the political debate for the urgent need for “growth”. Those like UK Labour leader Ed Miliband talk glibly of the need for Government to change policy and instead of austerity “go for growth”. This is presented by the media as if it were a valid choice  – but of course it isn’t.

What is being retailed as “growth” by the Left is actually a euphemism for more government control, more government spending. In other words their SOLUTION to our economic woes is to repeat what CAUSED the problems in the first place!!!

We need to cut debt because we spent too much money during the Labour years causing a PROFOUND structural imbalance that was sending us towards the rocks. Furthermore when the Left talk about this imagined “growth” where exactly is it coming from? Are there employers out there who are holding back from growing their business? Really? And why is that? Have they wilfully chosen to reduce profits? Why?

It strikes me that the Left see that the “growth” of which they speak as being a growth in State expenditure, of the proliferation of more State non-jobs, of a disconnect between supply and demand which they circumnavigate by just splashing our cash.

US JOB NUMBERS: KEYNESIANS STILL CLUELESS

By Pete Moore On January 6th, 2012 at 3:37 pm

Daily Telegraph: US jobless rate falls to three-year low as 200,000 Americans find jobs

“America’s unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in almost three years in December, as the world’s biggest economy created far more jobs than expected.”

You have to love that “as the world’s biggest economy created far more jobs than expected.” Far more than expected by the Keynesians and other PhDs who have no idea how the money supply affects and distorts an economy. These are the experts who spent the first half of 2011 confidently predicting a double-dip recession for the second half of 2011. Regular readers will know that someone, somewhere (modesty forbids) knew there would be no recession and that he said so. Continues the Telegraph:

“The better-than-expected figure will raise hopes that 2012 may be the year in which US growth emerges from the stop-start pattern that has characterised the last two years.”

Only if Bernanke continues to pour inflated dollars into the economy. The key to these job figures is that his money printing ran at 14% annualised from May to November 2011. This is the source of the illusory growth which experts are now viewing as a recovery. It’s nothing more than a sugar rush, an artifical, inflationary boost which always ends in contraction. These extra dollars will continue to fuel price inflation throughout 2012 until even Bernanke can ignore the increasing cost of living no more.

When even he sees that and turns off the tap it’ll be back to recession.

UNEMPLOYMENT AT 17-YEAR HIGH

By Pete Moore On December 14th, 2011 at 8:24 pm

How’s that minimum wage coming along?

Unemployment has hit a 17-year high and the young particularly are suffering. That’s the cue for Chris Grayling (Minister of State for Work and Pensions – as if they have anything to do with the state) and his shadow to traipse around the studios demonstrating what they don’t know. How depressing it was to listen to this pair on BBC 5Live. All Grayling could mutter was some Keynesian dross about the job programmes and infrastructure investment the government is coming up with. His shadow could only come up with some Keynesian dross about how there is not enough demand for jobs in the economy.

What utter cobblers.

Think about it: we live in a world of unlimited human demands and needs, of unlimited imperfections. Things always need to be made and done. The structural unemployment problem, therefore, is a disconnection between hirers and hirees. What is that disconnection? There is an oversupply of labour at current prices, therefore prices must come down.

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US JOBS BOOST – KEYNESIANS STILL SURPRISED

By Pete Moore On December 2nd, 2011 at 5:23 pm

US job numbers are out: cue head-scratching among the experts at the apparent economic ‘recovery’. To anyone who’s been looking, this ‘recovery was predictable and (predicted). The Telegraph, typical of the dismal media, headlines with “Surprise drop in US unemployment rate to 8.6pc” (hey, they’re going with government lies instead of the real rate).

The BBC is surprisingly low-key about it, possibly keeping back it’s “Obama the economic genius” piece for a comment page. It reports that analysts were ‘generally encouraged’ and that US manufacturing is growing at its fastest pace since June. ‘Analysts’ will be generally discouraged when this all goes wrong. Let me explain. What none of these analysts have been seeing is that Ben Bernanke, Central Economic Commissar at the Federal Reserve, has been printing money like a madman all year. It’s for this reason that the famed US double-dip recession, which ‘analysts’ predicted for this autumn, was never going to happen:

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MEANWHILE, IN ICELAND

By Pete Moore On November 28th, 2011 at 6:06 pm

Recession’s back, according to the OECD. It’s difficult to say how accurate the prediction is since the Bank of England makes it so difficult to find up to date money supply figures.

Somewhere recession is not back is Iceland. You remember it, small rocky place, no banks left since they all went bust. Iceland was battered more than any other nation in the European Economic Area because of its failed banks. The government wanted to stiff the people by loading bank debts onto them, the people told the government to get stuffed, all the experts predicted doom and free marketeers gave three cheers.

Last week Iceland’s credit rating was raised from Negative to Stable by S&P. Things seem to be moving the right way out of destruction then. In contrast to its report of doom for the UK and Europe, the OECD has a positive outlook for Iceland. GDP is at 2.9% and forecast to be 2.4% for the next couple of years. Unemployment is at 7.0% and falling. The Republic of Ireland, which (along with the UK) stands in contrast to Iceland in how failed banks were treated, has a pitiable GDP of 1.2% (almost as bad as the UK) and unemployment of 14.1%.

Well done to the people of Iceland. Their fight was right, they are vindicated and they are a lesson to everyone who is told that they must saddle the debts of banks which ought to have been allowed to go bust.

ATW QOTD

By Pete Moore On November 3rd, 2011 at 8:17 pm

“There is something rather pathetic about American liberals desperately clinging to a distinctly top down anti-market approach that has spectacularly failed in Europe, and is now dragging America down too. On both sides of the Atlantic, the grandiose Big Government vision of the Left is collapsing in turmoil and disarray.”

Nile Gardiner

We seem to have it all with dramas and crises and catastrophes which the euro-elites provide daily. But it’s not merely about the euro and Greece and keeping the dream of a more perfectly socialist union alive. There’s a larger context and it’s that we are seeing the end of the regulatory welfare state.

Post-war governments and supra-national elites didn’t test the economic boundaries of their model states and societies, they smashed so far through them that monstrous confiscation of private wealth was long ago greatly surpassed by their ability to borrow, spend and condemn future generations to lives poorer than otherwise. Those models are now in collapse as the iron laws of economics assert themselves and there is nothing they can do about it.

When future historians look back, the likes of Papandreou and the referendum will be details in a much greater story because these are revolutionary times and those times are still just beginning.

‘GOVERNMENT DESTROYS JOBS’ – EXCELLENT!

By Pete Moore On November 2nd, 2011 at 7:28 pm

Reports The Telegraph:

Ministers have been accused of destroying 25,000 jobs and “bankrupting a whole industry”, after the Government unveiled plans to slash subsidies for green energy’ […] Hundreds of solar companies are likely to go bust by Christmas after the Department for Energy and Climate Change confirmed it is looking to halve subsidies for new panels. Greg Barker, minister for climate change, said the “feed-in tariff” subsidies are currently too generous, because the cost of installing solar panels has fallen.

Good.

Yes, I know it’s tough for those who’ll lose their jobs, I genuinely feel for them, but any job which can only exist by state subsidy is uneconomic and its very existence, made and sustained as it is by the productive being looted, destroys more real jobs. The victims have been hoodwinked by government and eco-propaganda.

The lesson is to never rely on the state for your income. It is immoral and it can be taken away on bureaucratic whim.

FEDSTERS IN FOR A SURPRISE

By Pete Moore On November 2nd, 2011 at 6:21 pm

The ‘Federal’ Reserve has announced ‘that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter’, therefore there’ll be no more QE. Strewth, they can’t recognise a manipulated, inflationary economy even when they cause it.

Further, they announce that ‘the Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further’. (Price) inflation will settle? Really?

The Fedsters have the money supply up at ramming speed. If they think price rises will settle down they’re in for a surprise.

VOLATILITY?

By Pete Moore On October 27th, 2011 at 5:07 pm

News is out that the American economy grew in the third quarter, up from 1.3 per cent in the second quarter to 2.5 per cent in July-September.

All those experts who extended the lines on their charts and forecast a double-dip recession for later this year will now be rolled out to say what GDP growth means. Keynesians, on the other hand, will be rejoicing that the ‘animal spirits’ which they believe to underpin any economy are revived. You might recall, dear reader, that someone (modesty forbids) suggested that there would be no double dip recession later this year in the US and that, instead, there would be inflationary growth. It was all quite easy to see because Ben Bernanke has been printing money at almost record speed:

In short, it shows the new money being pumped into the economy. The Austrians saw this coming but then they’re amongst the few economists who watch money supply. So there’s no immediate risk of recession. In fact it heralds yet more (price) inflation next year when the full effect of that money hits. This comes after a collapse in the money supply early in 2010 and the chaos that caused in currency, stock and commodity prices. Come 2011 and it’s a volte-face and printers back on to ramming speed.

No-one should be surprised that markets struggle to achieve price discovery. All this volatility is inevitable because the Federal Reserve prints money like mad, shuts it off and then prints like mad again. Volatility and chaos is inevitable.