The mathematical models underpinning the government’s Covid-19 strategy are largely informed by “educated guesswork, intuition and experience”, one of its scientific advisers has said.
“Educated” appears to be redundant there, given how far out the models have been. The days when mega-billion decisions hang on “modelling” must be over. Academics feeding their prejudices into poorly coded models simply doesn’t cut it.
It goes double for that other fiercely asserted but highly dubious crises, which is also predicated on modelling which invariably turns out to be at odds with the real world.