Tucker on Hunters emailsHome by Patrick Van Roy October 16, 2020 131 1 min 11 mths Tweet Watch and Discus Click to rate this post![Total: 0 Average: 0] America More stories Post navigation Previous postNext post 131 thoughts on “Tucker on Hunters emails” It’s hard to believe that a matter of greater importance than the corruption and mendacity of the Dems’ Presidential candidate has come to light from the corruption and mendacity of that candidate, but it’s true: there is. The big-techs shut down all discussion on their ‘impartial’ forum because it would reveal the prima facie rottenness of the Bidens and the Democrats – obviously the GOP is the same though not (yet) so brazenly. Tucker Carlson yet again shows exactly why the Bidens, along with the Clintons, must be pursued by real forces of justice: 🚨🚨🚨Tucker Carlson with an absolutely damning walkthrough of Hunter Biden and Joe Biden’s corrupt dealings where Hunter sold access to his Vice President father. pic.twitter.com/jyuNXG2vLM — Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 15, 2020 Now, the trail of the hard drive on which all the emails are located leads to Rudolph Giuliani, and it was he who was instrumental in getting them out. WaPo is now stating that Giuliani is the target of Russian disinformation. This is doubling-down to the power of six million – beyond belief, and nobody in the Dems or GOP (the Establishment GOP would cover for the Dems) is claiming that the Biden emails are fake. The WaPo writes……. U.S. intelligence agencies warned the White House last year that President Trump’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani was the target of an influence operation by Russian intelligence, according to four former officials familiar with the matter. The warnings were based on multiple sources, including intercepted communications, that showed Giuliani was interacting with people tied to Russian intelligence during a December 2019 trip to Ukraine, where he was gathering information that he thought would expose corrupt acts by former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter. The timing is astonishingly cohencidental Daily Stormer reveals that from documents released by the Director of National Security from the Obama Administration, that Barack Obama knew from July 28, 2016 that the “Russian collusion” hoax was a scam created by Hillary Clinton. On July 28, 2016, Obama knew that the so-called “pissgate” dossier was a total hoax, funded by Clinton herself. These documents are public and have been for nearly two weeks. Here they are. African Crime Lord Barack Obama Attacks Independent Journalism, Says He “Didn’t Do Nothing” Wow – in Brennan’s own handwriting Brennan, in his own handwriting, told Obama: “CITE [summarizing] alleged approved by Hillary Clinton a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security service.” The notes state “on 28 of July.” In the margin, Brennan wrote that “POTUS, JC, Denis and Susan” were present. So: no one denies now that Barack Obama knew, as a matter of fact, that all of this Russia stuff was a hoax. Total corruption – the US is entirely rotten, and Trump is only marginally less rotten. This may seem extreme, but the budget for bribery lobbying of Congress and the ‘funding’ of Presidential campaigns means that the US is the most corrupt nation in the history of the world Total corruption – the US is entirely rotten, and Trump is only marginally less rotten. This may seem extreme, but the budget for bribery lobbying of Congress and the ‘funding’ of Presidential campaigns means that the US is the most corrupt nation in the history of the world Fair point Allan. Campaign finance reform is blocked by the oligarchs who control the funding because they have the legislators bought and paid for, and no doubt quite a few judges as well. See for example how the GOP is in the pocket of the corrupt NRA (fraud charges are already filed) and the fossil fuel oligarchs like the Kochs who spend tens of millions every year buying politicians through “campaign contributions”. The gun lobby does have support from a significant minority of US voters. They are a minority, but they are fanatics who care about only one issue and have disproportionate influence. Brennan, in his own handwriting, told Obama: “CITE [summarizing] alleged approved by Hillary Clinton a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security service.” Here it is – and it didn’t take long to find…… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dni-brennan-notes-cia-memo-clinton “Per FBI verbal request, CIA provides the below examples of information the CROSSFIRE HURRICANE fusion cell has gleaned to date,” the memo continued. ““An exchange [REDACTED] discussing US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s approval of a plan concerning US presidential candidate Donald Trump and Russian hackers hampering US elections as a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.” Another source familiar with the documents told Fox News that “this information has been sought by hundreds of congressional requests for legitimate oversight purposes and was withheld for political spite—and the belief that they’d never get caught.” The source added that the Brennan notes are significant because it is “their own words, written and memorialized in real time.” Nobody is being prosecuted, nobody is being pursued. It’s like the collapse of Rome though, this time, with all documentary evidence available for historians 100’s of years from now to read in absolute amazement at the corruption Fair point Allan. It is a fair point, so why don’t others make such fair points? Why do “mainstream” people never point out obvious corruption? Ask Patrick. He supports money corruption in US politics, including unlimited ” contributions ” by rich people and corporations. Why do “mainstream” people never point out obvious corruption? You mean like the Kochs and the NRA having the GOP in their pockets? The NYT and the WAPO do this all the time. But Tucker and Fox and the NYP couldn’t give a single actual ***k about any of that. Because they are part of the same Rightworld corruptocrat gang. They love the NRA and they love the Kochs. And of course the feelings are mutual. Ask Patrick. He supports money corruption in US politics, including unlimited ” contributions ” by rich people and corporations. He does indeed, big time. The Giuliani/Trump dirty trick may backfire. The reported texts show a Joe Biden who is loving and supportive to his son during a time of need. If this causes the US public to turn away from Joe Biden, I’ll be surprised. A raw series of text messages show Joe Biden offering fatherly comfort as his son, Hunter, lamented from a rehab facility about being a “f–ked up addict who can’t be trusted” and had damaged his dad’s political career. The intimate family exchange took place on February 24, 2019, two months before Joe launched his campaign for the White House. “Good morning my beautiful son. I miss you and love you. Dad,” the elder Biden wrote at 6:57 a.m. https://nypost.com/2020/10/16/texts-show-raw-intimate-exchange-between-joe-and-hunter-biden/ And texts are not always available on a laptop – they’re often just on a person’s phone. Something continues to be very suspicious about this. Did News Corp hack the phones of the Bidens? They did it before in the UK. The Giuliani/Trump dirty trick may backfire. What is the “dirty trick”? Are the emails fake? I saw a good analogy by Irish Savant: https://irishsavant.blogspot.com/2020/10/will-tds-get-joe-off-hook.html The scandals engulfing Joe and Hunter (“American Psycho”) Biden are egregious enough to derail a Third World Presidential campaign. Seriously. But there’s no guarantee this will happen to Joe. For a start (and this reminds me of the philosophers’ dilemma ‘if a tree falls in the forest and nobody sees or hears it has it really fallen?’) in America if something doesn’t appear in the MSM and major social media platforms then – as far as the general public is concerned – it hasn’t happened. And boy, these guardians of information flow have thrown off the last pretence of impartiality and imposed a coordinated blackout. Even the White House Twitter feed was cut off for a while. Phantom – has nothing happened? President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer. In fact, Biden’s lead is so large, traditionally red states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas might now go blue. We’ve still got a little over two weeks to go before Election Day, and Trump needs the race to tighten during that time — we’re way past normal polling error territory for Trump to close the gap. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ get rolling colm , have many 1’s 😉 Kurt You do realise that on Election day in 2016 this same site gave Hillary Clinton a 70% chance of winning the election. Need I say more ? seamus has dealt with all those 2016 -2020 comparisons so do you need to say more ? ans: yeppers Even Seamus wouldn’t be so foolish as to insist there is NO WAY Trump can win, as you do. It ain’t over till the last Fat American voter’s ballot slip is counted and with all the stories of funny goings on with dodgy ballot drop off boxes and ballot stuffing and attempted voter suppression (from both parties) not to mention the various legal wranglings that might occur post election day I wouldn’t bet at all on the outcome no matter what the polls are currently saying. I think that a Biden victory is very likely but chickens shouldn’t be counted. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance per our forecast my 13:23 colm it would help if you could actually read I accept your correction in advance 😉 No need for a correction. My comments are aimed at your unwavering and premature boasting. Just trying to save you having potential Trump coloured egg on your face on Nov 4th. 😉 Biden’s campaign has come out and said not to believe the national polls that give them a “double digit” lead. It’s an astonishing admission. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-says-they-are-not-ahead-by-double-digit-lead-those-are-inflated-numbers It’s from the NYT Charles so Pat obviously thinks it’s a lie. I think the Biden camp are likely playing things cool. Incidentally, Trump (jokingly) stated that if Biden wins he’d have to leave the country. Were this to be true which country would he go to / take him in? North Korea, where he could bubble up with cuddly little Kim 😉 Charles They’re being smart They don’t want to lolligag to defeat like Hillary did You run all out until its over Lolligag ? That’s a new one on me ! not heard that word lollygag before , its funny people are queuing 12 hours a day to vote, election workers and volunteers calling millions of people on the phone, its a huge huge effort , a massive sacrifice. One of the best campaigns I’ve heard about on the ground. Trumps lots are in disarray, broke, confused, without a message a hope or a prayer. we’re seeing this turn into democrat votes. every vote counts, yeah you don’t stop , you run the juggernaut up to full speed. Trump has to be crushed, annihilated, wiped out: things are looking good , more to be done, keep pressing You hear that word a lot and US military boot camp In mock seriousness They yell at you not to be lollygagging around all day https://www.worldwidewords.org/weirdwords/ww-lol1.ht It Was used in one of the scenes in the wonderful baseball comedy “ Bull Durham “ I’ve said on these pages in all seriousness that if Trump loses I think he would go to Moscow and live in one of his penthouse properties. I say this b/c as Kurt and his ilk say, losing an election isn’t enough, the man must be destroyed. Very unamerican, IMO. Is it as unAmerican as him wanting to put his political opponents in prison “We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race,” Dillion wrote, “and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire.” https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-warns-against-complacency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this Were he to go to somewhere like Russia and then face charges of tax evasion would you support his extradition, Charles? Paul, only if a deal were struck for no jail time, as he would be an ex-POTUS, and that demands, in my view, some consideration. Also b/c of the politics I question whether he could get a fair trial. A past president of Israel went to prison for five years; current PM Bibi may go to prison too. Israel in this respect is a healthier society than we are. No kings there. https://apnews.com/article/7cd1e6eed8554e5b80742f0c69c14a37 You think that his spell as POTUS should apply retrospectively to his alleged tax evasion? Also b/c of the politics I question whether he could get a fair trial. That sounds like a perpetual defence against trial, Charles. I don’t know how it would hold up against the voir dire process. charles i meant electorally destroyed, what happens after is up to the courts the cult of trumpism being a disease , you’d want to cleanse the cancer that’s the first vaccine to come , and i hope to heck Biden delivers it then yous can all be cured 🙂 //. It ain’t over till the last Fat American voter’s ballot slip is counted // Not true. There are several states in the eastern part of the US, from Florida to Michigan, which, if Biden were to win them all, there is practically no way Trump can win the election. I often wonder why they don’t wait till polling booths have closed in all states before announcing results. Several times in the past few years (but not in 2000), the winner was being “called” while places like California, to say nothing of Alaska and Hawaii were still voting, which certainly does little to encourage people in those places to go out and vote. // i hope to heck Biden delivers it then yous can all be cured// Kurt, the really big problems in US politics – the divisions in the country and the outdated and farcical political system, from candidate selection, through campaign money, the electoral college, all the way to an overtly political supreme court, the gross stupidity of most of the political media, to name but a few – will still be there no matter who wins the election. Trump isn’t the disease; he’s only a symptom. So be still and wait without hope, for hope would be hope for the wrong thing. Florida could go for Trump But Biden looks good to run the table in PA, MI, WI etc I don’t think that Biden will lose any state that Hillary won, but he is set to win a number of states that Trump won the last time lol true Noel , but there’s a hint of optimism no with “But the faith and the love and the hope are all in the waiting” reckon we might see one of the hugest margins in the popular vote where we had Trump and Clinton approx 63 Million and 66 Million in 2016 I’d be surprised if this time Trump scrapped 40 million or Biden got less than 80 Million Ratio of 2:1 in favor of JB Think a Supreme Court will over-turn that in Trumps favour ? it could be the big one 100 Million difference Trump 30 million , Biden 130 Million – no kidding reasons: Trump has lost the support of women , seniors, vets and they’re not voting again for Trump, they’ve voting for Biden ( double whammy ) Biden has energized the youth vote, perhaps not for him personally, but they hate trump so much ; then there’s the undecided, and after the 1st debate , they’ve swung to Biden ( double whammy ) add these two together and you have not a triple whammy but a quadruple whammy and this is one helluva burger or whopper depending on your culinary preference I don’t think that Biden will lose any state that Hillary won, but he is set to win a number of states that Trump won the last time Yes Phantom, Trump’s win in 2016 was based on a margin of less than 100,000 votes in three rustbelt states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden just needs to win those three and hold on to the states Hillary won in order to win the college (subject to SCOTUS confirmation, which cannot be taken for granted). But it looks like he might win a few more besides: “Just eight years ago, it would have been weird to put Iowa and Ohio in the same electoral category as Georgia and Texas. In the 2012 election, President Obama won Iowa by 6 percentage points and Ohio by 3 points while losing Georgia by 8 and Texas by 16. But in the early stages of the Trump era, Georgia and Texas got a bit more blue, while Iowa and Ohio got more red. (Exactly why these shifts happened at the same time is complicated, so let’s leave that aside for the moment.) In 2016 and 2018, these four states voted similarly — about 11 points, give or take, to the right of the country overall. That gave Trump fairly comfortable wins in all four states in 2016 — when Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by just 2 points — but Republicans barely won in several key statewide races in these four states in 2018, when Democrats won the national U.S. House vote by about 9 points. Fast-forward to 2020, which is looking about as blue as 2018 — and perhaps even more so — and all four states look competitive.” Democrats Don’t Need To Win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio Or Texas — But They Could “Ratio of 2:1 in favor of JB” Even the most optimistic polling for Joe Biden, an Opinium poll a week or so ago, had Biden up by 17. What you are suggesting would be nearly double that lead. The most likely scenario is that Biden is about 10 points in front. Some have him a little more than that, some a little less. But on average about 10 points, a big margin for a relatively poor candidate. This will be 19th election since the Second World War and it would be the 6th largest margin of victory in that period. So current polling will give Biden plenty to be optimistic about. But no need to oversell it. “Biden’s campaign has come out and said not to believe the national polls that give them a “double digit” lead. It’s an astonishing admission.” Most likely to guard against complacency. Biden is likely about 10 points up. But he is only 7 points up in Pennsylvania. Probably only about 4 points up in Florida. Maybe 3 in North Carolina. And about 8 in Wisconsin. There is a mathematical formula that determines whether or not a person will vote or not: PB + R > C Where P is the probability of their vote affecting the result, B being the benefit that the voter would receive with his or her preferred party being elected, R being the personal reward a person receives by the simple act of voting, and C being the cost the voter incurs by voting. So the less personal benefit a person gets with the victory of their candidate reduces the chances of them voted. However, with an increasingly polarised America B should be very high. “I don’t think that Biden will lose any state that Hillary won, but he is set to win a number of states that Trump won the last time” Probably the closest would be Nevada. Biden is up only 6 points in Nevada. But ultimately any state that Biden is up by less than the national total (any state he isn’t up by 10 in) is potentially poachable by Trump if Trump can close that national margin. Could he close it? Yes. Trump had a late surge in October 2016. RCP had Clinton by +3 in 2016 (and she won by 2). On the 17th October RCP had Clinton +7. They have Biden +9. Biden is only 2 points up more than Clinton was at this exact stage of the campaign in 2016. Now add 2 points on to Clinton in 2016 and she wins in Florida, Michigan, Pennslyvania and Wisconsin. It pretty much reverse the electoral college (Clinton would have won 307-231). What I would say is that Biden has a huge lead at the moment. And Trump needs to massively reduce that lead. Could he do so? Yes. It is possible. Could polling error be enough? Not at the moment. But if he was to reduce it from say 5 to 10 then polling error starts giving him a better shot. If Biden has a 10 point lead in the polls on the eve of the election then the level of polling error needed to give Trump a win would be ludicrous. Seems to have cut out a load of my comment. Maybe I deleted it. Not sure. But: However, with an increasingly polarised America B should be very high…. R is hard to measure as it is a personal thing, while C will be what the Republicans have been targeted in voter supression. Make it harder for people to vote and people will be less likely to vote. What the Biden camapign are worried about is P. The less a person’s vote impacts the result then the less likely they will be to vote. So if people think it will be a blowout then they are less likely to vote. I’ve said all along that Trump’s unmanly, undignified, unpresidential demeanor since Day One could harm him. It will. Among older voters, among women, among everyone else except maybe uneducated white males. He hasn’t grown in office one bit. He has shrank before our eyes. This is as much of a factor in his ruin as his botched response to the pandemic, and the impact that has had on the economy. “Among older voters, among women, among everyone else except maybe uneducated white males.” Some evidence that he is doing worse against non-college educated white men as well. Though a certain factor of that could be that Biden is simply doing better with that demographic than Clinton, rather than Trump doing worse. He hasn’t grown in office one bit. He has shrank before our eyes. But the orange pancake makeup has grown significantly in the past month. Watching him channel Mussolini is a scary experience, and his speeches have been getting even more deranged. Some of the rats are deserting the sinking ship and / or getting ready to run in 2024. Cruz and Hawley are already in the contest, but they both fear Don Junior, and with good reason. Seamus Maybe. Biden doesn’t look down on the white rural working class the way that Hillary did. Peter I disagree with you on Junior. He’s a bearded nobody. When Trump slinks off to wherever people like that slink off to, Don Jr. won’t be a big deal. He will be the son of the guy who got beat, the son of the guy who choked when the pandemic came to town. very interesting forumula seamus, grateful for that give us a prediction you see in terms of the popular I’ve showed how i reached my wild ones so we had 130 million votes cast last time lets say we have 150 million in 2020- that’s not impossible . Trump 50 million , Biden 100 million what wrong with that ? 2:1 to Biden paul see this one , effective use of the language ( for comms purposes ) “lets say we have 150 million in 2020- that’s not impossible .” There are signs that it could be that. Could be even higher. I’ve even seen projections as high as 155 million. Let’s call it 150. Biden is currently leading 52-42. Now that would be a two-party vote of 94. That would be quite low. 2016 had high third party vote but had even higher 3rd party polling. That polling isn’t here. So I’d imagine the two-party vote would be closer to the 98% that was present in 2012, 2008 and 2004. So you are probably talking 54-44. In terms of actual vote my projection, based on current polling (subject to changing) would be Biden 80 million, Trump 65 million. wow i’m gobsmacked 65 million Trump projection can’t see him getting 50million , but thats probably just emotion and tea-leaves plus i am not seeing alot of fat asses with trump flags queuing for 10 hours ! They couldn’t hold it together .. no way ! Don Jr. won’t be a big deal. He will be the son of the guy who got beat, the son of the guy who choked when the pandemic came to town. Phantom You may well be right if Trump loses by a landslide. But if it’s anywhere near close, the myth of the “stolen election” will be a big boost to Don Junior’s chances. Watch out for Fox swinging behind him early next year if he shows any inclination to run in 2024. Lachlan Murdoch is just as right wing as his old man. And Trump will not slink away quietly to lick his wounds, he’ll be tweeting by the hour and maybe even blow-harding every day on his own tv channel. And the militias will be much more brazen, egged on by the usual suspects. Including Tucker of course. He loves them and they love him. A 2:1 Biden win would give Biden a margin bigger than any since the Jeffersonian Republicans in the early 19th century (who had a de facto one party state). The 1920 election, the biggest election win in (relatively) modern history, wasn’t even of that margin. A 2:1 margin would put Biden in a position for a 50 state win. That simply isn’t on the cards. If Biden was winning 2:1 he’d be competitive in West Virginia, Wyoming and Oklahoma. He is miles behind in those states. He will be the son of the guy who got beat, the son of the guy who choked when the pandemic came to town. Phantom You may well be right if Trump loses by a landslide. lmao…… you guys are sharing Hunters Pipe….. i’m genuinely looking forward to the healing, seamus that pleases me no end, but i’m well aware of the price and cost of this election i honestly think Trump deserves to swing, for all his life long crimes it seems just if he met the hangmans noose, like mussolini, but all that is reserved anger and directed judgement I take no pleasure in it , my pleasure is for the american people to be free of the monster breathe again, live again, rest again, stop the division, the hate, the insanity, and ultimately love one another you other two can’t be serious either…. A Biden win will cause a kumbaya moment. Yeah the same way Obama brought us racial harmony…. This is the funniest thread I’ve read in a long time… thanks yeah seamus I don’t know enough about the population stats in each states i’m projecting the popular vote into that 2:1 ratio,based on where Biden does very well he’ll have gathered many millions compared to Trumps hundreds of thousands top heavy as it were .. like a front loaded crack pipe pats gonna need on election night to bear the emotional impact of the landslide 😉 “i honestly think Trump deserves to swing, for all his life long crimes it seems just if he met the hangmans noose, like mussolini, but all that is reserved anger and directed judgement” Ok, of all of Trump’s failings, and crimes, whether real, metaphorical or even hyperbolic, they pale into complete and utter insignificance compared to the crimes of Mussolini. It is also worth pointed out that Mussolini was neither hanged nor executed. Mussolini was lynched, by summary firing squad, by communist partisans who had captured him. Patrick Just for the record, you are still expecting your guy to win? A Biden win will cause a kumbaya moment. It will settle a lot of people PVR If you want to stay outside the happy tent and scowl that’s your prerogative America needs and deserves a gentlemen after a fiend, I believe it will choose the gent you’ve never said you think Trump will win again “i’m projecting the popular vote into that 2:1 ratio,based on where Biden does very well he’ll have gathered many millions compared to Trumps hundreds of thousands” Which is already factored in. The GOP and their fans love to show maps of the US vote and it shows big seas of red (where barely anyone lives) and only tiny areas of blue (where millions of people live). In places where Biden will do well he will get millions of votes. But Clinton got millions of votes in those places. Peter, on October 17th, 2020 at 10:43 PM Said: Edit Comment Patrick Just for the record, you are still expecting your guy to win? Without doubt. “Without doubt.” Show me a man without doubt and you will have shown me nothing but a fool. lol peter , we think alike asked same question same time – snap 🙂 pats analysis of the upcoming election has been a mixture of ROFLMA and ROFLMA its been that great and interesting .. high educational achiever , with 3 degrees maps of the US vote and it shows big seas of red (where barely anyone lives) and only tiny areas of blue (where millions of people live). Electoral College fair enough seamus given it was 63 Million DT vs 66 Million HC pat always reminds us of that if i remember correctly then 65 Mill DT , 80 Mill JB is still a cool 15 Mill surplus I want to be astounded and see 22 million differential I get lucky with the number 22 🙂 Pat ok you said without a doubt care to predict the EC numbers and popular vote numbers Its ok you can just pull them outa yer ass like you normally do 😉 “Electoral College” Undemocratic sham. Show me a man without doubt and you will have shown me nothing but a fool. no show me a man that doesn’t stick to his convictions and I’ll show you someone who isn’t a man. You know I’ve stayed out of this conversation because I tire of the idiocy, but you two are a blast all of you actually. You like the leftist press really believe Biden not only is going to win, but could a landslide etc etc You’ve got a 180 degree misread of the mood and voting environment in the US. You like them believe that the country blames Trump for the Flu and the misery it’s caused. They don’t, not only do they not blame Trump they directly Blame the Democrats for the misery from covid and are totally outraged at them supporting and encouraging the RIOTS that are still going on everyday. What you will see is a Trump victory and the Dems try to steel it with fake mail in ballots. he doesn’t dare give a prediction , beacause he know the follow up will be how are you counting those EC votes to make 270 + then it will narrow down into the detail nah turns out Pats the one with the crack-pipe shooting the breeze sure helps wishful thinking a head full of crystal meth , not much else lol I think Patrick is betting that Biden will win the popular vote by maybe five million and the college by maybe 50 or so. And that the SCOTUS will then be asked to overturn the results in at least three states on the basis of alleged dodgy postal votes, and will do their duty to the GOP, turning the 50 majority for Biden into a 100 majority for Trump. At this point that’s the only plausible path to a Trump win. Don’t rule it out. Biden will need to win big to avoid a SCOTUS challenge from Trump. As in a majority of at least 100 in the college. And in any case, Trump has made it clear that he will not concede. And there is zero chance of him appearing at Biden’s inauguration. Only losers do that. It’s quite likely that he will stage an inauguration day “election stolen” rally at which Don Junior will feature prominently. It will be interesting to see how many GOP senators appear at that event. You read it here first, you’re welcome. I still think Trump will win. I see no energy on the Biden side. Trump’s not going to win the popular vote, but that doesn’t matter. In Colorado, the Dems are voting like mad, but so what? Colorado only has X number of electoral votes that were going Democrat anyway. Same for California and New York. Biden is losing the black vote, or a decent percent of it anyway. They’re not excited about the candidate IMO. Dems can’t win without the black vote. “no show me a man that doesn’t stick to his convictions and I’ll show you someone who isn’t a man.” It isn’t about convictions. You can completely support one thing, or honestly believe that your version of events is going to happen. But if you don’t have any doubt then you are a fool. “You’ve got a 180 degree misread of the mood and voting environment in the US. You like them believe that the country blames Trump for the Flu and the misery it’s caused. They don’t, not only do they not blame Trump they directly Blame the Democrats for the misery from covid and are totally outraged at them supporting and encouraging the RIOTS that are still going on everyday.” The polls were within the margin of error in 2016. The polls were within the margin of error in 2018. Why do you believe the polls were right in 2016, right in 2018 but are wrong now? we all know the states Trump needs to win, lay it out mr.professor PVR c’mon show us your gonads .. get em out .. i think you’ve badly misread the mood of the nation , and are just in a lil bubble of radio shock jocks, tucker, hannity, and your own twitter feed Avalanche is a coming .. gonna knock you right out the ball park this is what is going down here .. ya can’t see the wood for the trees hilarious ! Patrick and Charles You must both believe that the polls are wrong by a big margin and especially in the swing states. But the polling evidence suggests that even Texas is now in play, never mind Georgia. If Trump loses those two he loses the White House by a country mile. My guess is you are hoping that the SCOTUS will come riding over the hill like the cavalry that rescued Custer. Oh wait … charles , trump has lost the women, many of the seniors, the youth are all voting for Joe when you add that all up , like was saying earlier you have a very large democrat burger with relish and fries .. coming soon 🙂 I am going to make an absolute confident prediction. The winner of the Presidency will undoubtedly be…. a white heterosexual older man 😉 I’ll spell it out for you…. Biden will NOT win either the Popular Vote or the EC Vote. The only question election night will be did he (Trump) win it by a large enough margin that the mail in fraud won’t matter. to the far-right that’s still a faggot colm , need to add guns and tatoos to get their respect no word of a lie, I have an uncle sams once a year ONLY and its going to be on election night I have decided this year to get one in 🙂 One thing is for sure. The number of ballots cast will be a record. Here in El Paso, not Trump country BTW, the lines have been long every day. A friend in Fort Worth, Trump country, reports the same thing. Kurt What’s an Uncle Sams ? PVT are you too lazy or too uninformed to fill in the blanks EC Trump … ? Biden ….. ? Popular vote Trump …….? Biden …… ? maybe numbers aren’t you thing – if so no problem ! have a guess ( educated guess ) Charles have a go ? fancy ? I think he means a Sam Addams beer? uncle sams is a burger there’s only 1 outlet left in Brighton its tiny, the size of a cupboard, but i love their gherkin and mustard aahh Peter I don’t agree that TX is in play, even though Dem’s are pouring millions of dollars into the state. To be honest, I don’t know why I think that. R’s are up 8 in the polls, but I don’t trust Dem polls, so I shouldn’t trust polls favorable to my side either! I do agree with you that IF Trump loses, he will be the sore loser for the ages. “Biden is losing the black vote, or a decent percent of it anyway. They’re not excited about the candidate IMO. Dems can’t win without the black vote.” I’m not sure that is true. While Trump is doing marginally better with black voters than in 2016, Joe Biden is still winning the black vote by a massive margin. Even among religious blacks, one of the groups Trump is doing better with, he is still losing by over 80 points (PEW had him losing 9-90). By contrast Clinton won that group by 93 points (96-3). That is a big inroad for Trump. But still massively behind Clinton. Where, on the flip, side Biden is making inroads in almost every demographic. Biden is losing the black vote? Oh my my. I don’t believe that will prove entirely accurate. — Patrick’s gonna have a very tough Election Day. He will be retweeting excuses from Trump and “ the great one “ from Election Day to July 4. will he try to frame the winner and his associates Charles? That’s what the Dems did with their loss….. I don’t think you can be a more sore loser than the dems for the last 4yrs. Kurt Was there ever one on st James street. I’m sure I went to one there when in Brighton some years ago. “One thing is for sure. The number of ballots cast will be a record. Here in El Paso, not Trump country BTW, the lines have been long every day. A friend in Fort Worth, Trump country, reports the same thing.” Fort Worth could be really interesting. It isn’t full Trumper territory. Trump won Tarrant county by 8.6%, pretty much identical to what he won Texas by (9.0%). However in 2018 Beto O’Rourke won Tarrant county by 0.7%. Kurt, numbers really aren’t my thing. But when in Dublin, I did fancy gherkins on my burgers! We don’t have that here. (I ordered a “hamburger” and got this funny look, and the waiter said, “It’s made out of beef!” 🙂 Biden will NOT win either the Popular Vote or the EC Vote. Patrick Noted, and I will hold you to that. I’m sure you will concede graciously, unlike Trump. Charles I’m surprised you got a funny look using the word hamburger. It’s a perfectly common and correct word here in the U.K. and Ireland. Everyone knows that hamburger is beef. Don’t McDonalds put gherkins in their burgers in the US ? They put dill pickles. It was a Polish waiter, maybe new on the job. Patrick Noted, and I will hold you to that. I’m sure you will concede graciously, unlike Trump. If he loses honestly he loses. “They put dill pickles.” Is that not what a gherkin is? I don’t see blacks getting out the vote for “you ain’t black” Biden. Of course I may be wrong. Gherkins are sweet. Dills are not. Funny that coming up on a thread! Ever since I have been on ATW – a long time – Patrick has ALWAYS predicted at every election, that Americans are in revolt against the Democrats and they will lose heavily, even the election that brought Obama to the White House. He is perfectly blaise when he gets it wrong, it’s just what Patrick does ! I think there might have been Colm St James street gone to the dogs . We have big heroin problem they all come down here. I’m out in safer more trendy area . Guardian readers sandals muesli and beards 😂 Numbers Charles , ok no problem . States then Pat should really show his maths of how he’s getting Trump to 270 It’s a talking point not something to just go into fits of girly giggles over Lay it down , it’s not unreasonable to ask and expect even just a few scribbles Show how you arrived at the 270 We teach our kids that ar about 4 or 5 years old yeah Simple addition Diving comes later maybe at 7 years old .. varies I guess “Gherkins are sweet. Dills are not. Funny that coming up on a thread!” Fair enough. I just thought they were different names for pickled cucumber. Pat should really show his maths of how he’s getting Trump to 270 It’s easy Kurt. Trump wins 200 and the Scotus gives him 70. Watch out. Vegan stuff everywhere . I might get a few looks of who is this Neanderthal in front of me When waking home with my burger or two for party night nov 4th 🤣 Kurt, He must Have Ohio and Penn, Florida. I think he needs Michigan and Wisconsin, and would be nice to flip MN. Interesting peter , trump will struggle to get 200 legit I got Biden pegged at just shy of 400 EC on a very good night for the democrats He probably has a pathway to victory without Michigan or Wisconsin. But yes he needs Florida, Ohio and Pennslyvania. Ohio is a toss-up, while Florida is within the margin of error. Pennslyvania is the tricky one for him. Probably 7 behind at the moment. Nationally, either through polling error or closing the gap, Trump needs to close the gap from 10 (nationally) to about 3. Now at this point in time in 2016 he was 7 behind, and lost by 2. So he closed it by 5 in 2016. So he needs to do what he did in 2016 and a little bit more than that. It could be done. I don’t think it will be. But it can be done. Fair enough Charles thanks I was reading the other day West Virginia is home to them vangellicals why it’s so red Lol I thought they were all hippies and stoners , that’s Colorado I think Kurt, He must Have Ohio and Penn, Florida. On the current opinion polls he will win Ohio and has a chance in Florida, but will lose Penn. I think he needs Michigan and Wisconsin, and would be nice to flip MN. No chance in any of those. Even if the polls are as badly out as in 2016. And you haven’t mentioned Arizona and North Carolina and Georgia. Those were all Trump wins in 2016 and look like Biden wins this time. Colm I reckon if Trump comes out and yells I got me a boner for 4 more years an it’s the size of Florida he could pull it off Least it will give him some width to play with It’s still a bit hairy even so but he needs to show some balls 😆 Trump needs to close the gap from 10 (nationally) to about 3. Now at this point in time in 2016 he was 7 behind, and lost by 2. So he closed it by 5 in 2016. So he needs to do what he did in 2016 and a little bit more than that. It could be done. I don’t think it will be. But it can be done. In 2016 he was the “outsider” running against the “insider” who had enough baggage to sink the Titanic. In 2020 he’s the insider who has lied about everything and totally ****ed up on the pandemic. No, I don’t think it can be done, unless the SCOTUS intervenes bigly. But don’t rule that out. Peter your 11:57 is the part that we lose pats contribution to the thread The detail makes him go all coy and shy looking I think he wins NC and GA. Remember my theory on black turnout. AZ may be lost. MN is interesting. He was within 2 points last time. With all the rioting there, I can’t believe more R’s won’t turn out. Hope within me springs eternal, but I always say that hope is a piss poor plan. Hope is a nice lady but only if she keeps her pants on 😄 Peter You’re right that the 2016 dynamic of the outsider white knight has changed. Trump now has a record to run on. “No, I don’t think it can be done, unless the SCOTUS intervenes bigly. But don’t rule that out.” The Supreme Court have very, very little room to interfere. 2000 was as tight as tight can be. Bush won but the state that he won it by he won by 0.01%. 537 votes. In order for a realistic chance at litigation the states need to be tight. The Democrats litigated Florida in 2000 because it was so tight. They didn’t challenge New Hampshire which would have also won them the Presidency had they overturned it because Bush won New Hampshire by 1.3%. So for the courts to have a role the election needs to be tight. One or two states in it, and those states need to be tight. I’m talking less than 0.5% of the vote. For the Supreme Court to get involved Trump needs to get Biden’s lead in Pennslyvania to less than 0.5% of the vote. I don’t think there is a scenario where he can close the gap by 6.5% but not by 7%. Obama, the most popular political actor in the country by a mile, will soon start campaigning for Biden. Charles Given the opinion polls it will take a huge turnaround in the next two weeks to see your guy home. It won’t happen without the SCOTUS and the issue will be postal ballots, especially if the result is close in the swing states. Biden needs to win big to avoid a SCOTUS challenge, and if Trump is close enough to mount a half way credible challenge it will be in the expectation that he will get the verdict. Peter, Seamus is right that it will have to come down to very few ballots for SCOTUS to intervene. More than 500 unmarked postal ballots in PN have been found in dumpsters! I can see people all over the state saying they never got their ballot etc. and there being a court challenge. Phantom, yes, I just read that about Obama. The Supreme Court have very, very little room to interfere. 2000 was as tight as tight can be. That was 20 years ago and the issue was hanging chards in the voting booths. I’m guessing that postal voting was less than 10% that year and will be at least 30% this year. So postal votes will be the battle ground this time and the GOP plea will be to disallow a huge number of them in the swing states. And if the results in those states are close (say within 2%) Trump will have a good expectation of getting those results overturned in his favour. My bet would be a 6-3 win in the SCOTUS. That’s the game plan, and has been ever since he realised he would be facing Biden. He had no worries about beating Sanders. “You’re right that the 2016 dynamic of the outsider white knight has changed. Trump now has a record to run on.” Not a very good one. “I think he wins NC and GA. Remember my theory on black turnout. AZ may be lost. MN is interesting. He was within 2 points last time. With all the rioting there, I can’t believe more R’s won’t turn out. Hope within me springs eternal, but I always say that hope is a piss poor plan.” But even with a (slightly) higher number of black people voting for Trump with every year blacks make up a bigger share of the electorate in Georgia (due to old white people dying). So even if Biden only takes 90% of the black vote, instead of 95% of the black vote, he still likely takes a higher chunk of Georgia than Clinton did. But the big change is in suburban areas, something that was seen in 2018. Stacey Abrams didn’t run up massive turnout in black areas. Black turnout went from 28% in the 2016 presidential to 30% in the gubernatorial. What changed was that Abrams gained substantial vote in the ring of counties surrounding Atlanta. Suburban Atlanta went from about 50/50 to being about 55/45 in favour of the Democrats. PA won’t be close And Trump has run a brutally incompetent campaign, inclusive of the first debate The lock her up laptop fighting with reporters all the time won’t work any more He’s melting “That was 20 years ago and the issue was hanging chards in the voting booths. I’m guessing that postal voting was less than 10% that year and will be at least 30% this year. So postal votes will be the battle ground this time and the GOP plea will be to disallow a huge number of them in the swing states. And if the results in those states are close (say within 2%) Trump will have a good expectation of getting those results overturned in his favour. My bet would be a 6-3 win in the SCOTUS.” Again I’m not sure what scope there is for them to do so. There would be no grounds to disallow those ballots. And the trigger for these challenges is a lot lower than 2% (it varies state by state – 0.5% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, less than 2,000 votes in Michigan). You people are banking on a lot of bull and very faulty data. In a normal election cycle the polls are weighted towards the democrats with oversampling of democrat voters that’s why you can always shave 10pts off whatever their reporting the dem lead is or the dem projected number period. Vote counts verify this discrepancy. None of you are also taking into account the FACT that people who come out in support of Trump are attacked, the families are attacked, if they own a business it’s attacked, if you work for someone you can be fired. You really think in this environment people are going to tell a pollster the truth? The polls are off even more this time than last time. I think it’s fairly remarkable that Obama is campaigning for Biden. I don’t recall a former POTUS doing that before. Is it a sign that Biden can’t make it on his own, or just leaving nothing to chance? Obama is laying his credibility on the line here. No he’s not…. look where Obama is campaigning. Philly…. a Democrat stronghold. even if Joe loses Pa he won’t lose Philly, and Obama will say he can thank him for that. “I think it’s fairly remarkable that Obama is campaigning for Biden. I don’t recall a former POTUS doing that before. Is it a sign that Biden can’t make it on his own, or just leaving nothing to chance? Obama is laying his credibility on the line here.” I’m not sure there is a particular precedent. There are just a number of events that have made it less likely. Most Presidents leave office at an already relatively advanced age, and if they get involved in any election it is normally stumping for their VP. After that they can often be too old, too tired etc… to carry out a full campaign schedule. And there can often be disagreements within the parties (and a change in direction in a party) meaning the candidate and the former President don’t see eye to eye (Bush Snr and Dole, Ford and Reagan). “In a normal election cycle the polls are weighted towards the democrats with oversampling of democrat voters that’s why you can always shave 10pts off whatever their reporting the dem lead is or the dem projected number period. Vote counts verify this discrepancy.” The polls were within the margin of error in 2016. The polls were within the margin of error in 2018. Why do you believe the polls were right in 2016, right in 2018 but are wrong now? When did pollsters start adding on 10 points for the Democrats (because they clearly didn’t do that in 2016 or 2018)? “You really think in this environment people are going to a pollster the truth?” So do people think the pollster is going to leak their information to Antifa? How deep is this conspiracy? Is it the Jews again? Huh? Bill Clinton campaigned for Obama I bet that other former presidents have campaigned for successors; why wouldn’t they? https://www.c-span.org/video/?281528-1/president-clinton-obama-campaign-rally Seamus you insist the polls were accurate and I’m not going to get into a war with you over bullshit numbers, but somehow me and every other american remember the Pundits and the Polls having Hillary winning up until late the actual day of the election as the pundits lost their minds watching her lose….. now I’m sure all the polls had it close that’s why they all went into shock. and I’m not Allan bozo…. No people won’t tell pollsters the truth, they don’t trust anyone that calls you on the phone in this country and it’s got nothing to do with the jews…. Also you very much are underreading the threat that people feel. If you wear a hat you can be physically assaulted….. that’s a new phenomenon, and it has become common. If you put a Trump sticker on your car it will at the very least be keyed and at the worst lit on fire. People are ripping Trump flags off of peoples front doors and daring you to try and stop them. Yet it’s a kook conspiracy to you that people won’t tell a stranger on the phone they support Trump…. oh ok skippy In the old days, pollsters might call you at random and you could say what you felt and that would be that These days, if you tell them something you will probably be tracked for the rest of your life by the polling company/social media/advertisers/ political parties I would tell them nothing Or I would tell them that I’m voting for the raving monster loony party “Seamus you insist the polls were accurate and I’m not going to get into a war with you over bullshit numbers, but somehow me and every other american remember the Pundits and the Polls having Hillary winning up until late the actual day of the election as the pundits lost their minds watching her lose….. now I’m sure all the polls had it close that’s why they all went into shock.” Polls had Hillary winning. And Hillary won the only things that polls measure. And they called it accurately. So again when did pollsters start adding on 10 points for the Democrats (because they clearly didn’t do that in 2016 or 2018)? Why do you believe the polls were right in 2016, right in 2018 but are wrong now? If you don’t have an answer to either of those questions it exposes that you are talking absolute rampant horse shite. And you know it. The polls were accurate before. And you have no reason for them to be wrong now (other than wanting them to be wrong). At least have the balls to admit it. “and I’m not Allan bozo…. No people won’t tell pollsters the truth, they don’t trust anyone that calls you on the phone in this country and it’s got nothing to do with the jews….” Yes I know it has nothing to do with the Jews. It was largely just a pop at your previous anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. If there was such a threat (outside of the confines of your mind) then there would be notable differences between how Trump is polling in non-live online polls or live telephone polls. Yet there is pretty much no distinction between the two. I would tell them that I’m voting for the raving monster loony party which one….. Go Tampa Tampa……. really? Comments are closed.