76 1 min 7 yrs

The BBC’s exit poll: Miliband’s toast –

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326 is an overall majority, so chuck in the DUP’s seats and that’s that. This is all so exciting I’m off to bed.

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76 thoughts on “AS YOU WERE?

  1. //Was the UKIP expected to win more seats?//

    Phantom, as someone around here has been saying all along: its platform is not anything British voters get excited above, despite the kind of impression an outsider might get from ATW.

    A result where UKIP – appealing to 50 million voters – wins a fraction of the seats won by, say, the Shinners appealing to only 1 m is derisory.

  2. Ukip was never likely to win many seats. Their support is too thinly spread

  3. Phantom –

    A year ago yes, today not really. They’re somewhat stuffed by the FPTP system because many of their votes are in seats with a few more Tory or Labour voters. With PR UKIP would get maybe 60 seats.

  4. The exit poll is a joint bbc itv sky effort. I would rather see a few different polls to see if they all agree.

  5. Exit polls tend to be very accurate. Like bookies, they’re done by people with a great interest in being correct.

  6. Stunning result for the SNP if the poll is correct. From 6 seats to 58!

  7. 58 out of 59 seats won by SNP?

    Well, Scotland’s all but out of the UK at some point then?

    The referendum was a hiccup and not a nail in anyone’s coffin?

  8. Fewer people in the UK will have voted SNP than voted UKIP. Yet the SNP will get almost 60 seats and UKIP lucky to get 2. You have to concentrate your vote in small regional areas or get past a tipping point to start piling up the seats.

  9. Troll

    If he wins his seat he will just be an Member of Parliament. He won’t have any government office in any circumstances.

  10. Colm, we’re back to definitions. In the US “government office” apparently means something different to what it means in the rest of the world.
    Troll is already confused enough.

    BTW, Colm, with all this talk of a hung parliament, I really think you should have put yourself forward. If you’d been elected, then the parliament would be well hung indeed. 🙂

  11. Hey Noel… FU

    Colm wasn’t he your EU Rep or Something in Brussels?

    That’s the sort of thing I mean.

  12. Farage and UKIP to go the way of Dick Griffin and the BNP. Most Britons aren’t remotely racist.

  13. Troll

    He is an elected member of the European Parliament. That doesn’t change. That’s a separate election. However, I think if he becomes an MP in our national Parliament he may have to quit being a Euro MP but I am not certain of that.

    Noel

    It would take a HUGE swing to get my member… oops I mean me to become a member of Parliament 🙂

  14. Let’s nail the opinion polls: “Too close to call” = comfortable Tory win. It’s a re-run of 1992 when many “shy Tories” lied to the pollsters.

    If the exit poll is anywhere near right, then Cameron is truly the lucky PM. Murdoch’s man has won, helped by Murdoch’s gutter press, so Cameron will be even more Murdoch’s man. What a prospect that is.

    The Tories will stay in power as a minority government, thanks to the meltdown of Labour in Scotland and the meltdown of the Lib Dems in England.

    But be careful what you wish for. The real winners tonight are the SNP. There will be a UK referendum on EU membership which could well lead to a UK withdrawal from the EU, by 2017 at the latest. But Scotland will vote yes to EU membership. And that will trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence, which will probably say yes. And in any case there will be an economic meltdown this year or next, and the Tories will get the blame. So it will be a re-run of 1992 in more ways than one. Maybe a good one to lose for Labour, and there is no guarantee that a minority Tory government will survive anything like five years. But if it does, welcome to a rump UK outside the EU. Just what most of the Tories really want.

  15. meltdown of the Lib Dems in England

    Make that the meltdown of the Lib Dems in England, Scotland and Wales, slaughtered by Tories, Labour, Scots Nats and Greens. That rules out a second Tory Lib-Dem coalition, especially if Clegg loses his seat.

    So it will be a Tory minority government. Good luck with that.

  16. Cameron is truly the lucky PM

    It also looks like the UKIP vote will cost Labour and the Lib Dems many more seats than it will cost the Tories.

    It looks like a perfect Tory storm at the moment. There must even be an outside chance of an overall majority, definite echoes of 1992.

  17. Here goes. The Tories will win an overall majority. But they will have no MPs in Scotland.

    I looked at the odds a few days ago and should have punted.

    UK RIP.

  18. May 7 2015

    An important day in history.

    See, elections do have consequences.

  19. //There will be a UK referendum on EU membership which could well lead to a UK withdrawal from the EU, by 2017 at the latest. But Scotland will vote yes to EU membership. And that will trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence, which will probably say yes. And in any case there will be an economic meltdown this year or next//

    But, Peter, did you not also predict that UKIP would do well in this election?

  20. The dopey Liberal Democrats, and the Labour halfwits routed, this was not the will of Allah… or the BBC.

    The left are not taking this very well 🙂

  21. I can’t undersand why that economic genius Ed Balls lost his job as an MP 😉

  22. Indeed, to quote the great Tuco Rameriz, ( sounds like a foreigner to me), ‘one bastard goes in another bastard comes out’. Oh, well done the SNP for demolishing ‘Labour’

  23. Well, David will have a wry smile when he finds out George Galloway is no more.

    Personally, I’m disappointed Nigel Farage didn’t get elected. While I would not like to see many UKIP MPs, Nigel did have some valid points. But, the UK leaving the EU wasn’t one of them.

  24. Would agrees with me that this election has essentially decided a number of things

    The UKIP is toast.

    Scotland’s out.

    The UK remains in the EU.

  25. //Would agrees with me that this election has essentially decided a number of things
    The UKIP is toast.
    Scotland’s out.
    The UK remains in the EU.//

    No, it didn’t. Those things were decided long ago, and realised by everyone not given to wishful thinking about the British electorate.

    Had to laugh at this from the Beeb:

    “Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage all resign saying their parties need new leadership.”

    I could have told them that yesterday.

  26. How can you say that ( Scotland leaving the UK ) was decided long ago, when the pro independence people lost the recent referendum? Not by much, but they lost it.

    Yesterday’s North Korea like, nearly unanimous, parliamentary results give a resounding pro independence result that has not been seen before. I don’t know how a Scots unionist can even begin to argue for continued union after a result like that.

  27. Now upon review

    In September 2014 the Scots voted 55.3% – 44.7% against Scotland being an independent country.

    In May 3025 the same Scots have voted SNP for 56 out of 59 seats ( or whatever it was )

    Do the Scots have the slightest idea what it is that they want?

  28. In May 2015 the same Scot

    I will report back to you later with the results of the 3025 elections

  29. “Do the Scots have the slightest idea what it is that they want?”

    Good question.

    Clearly a significant minority do want independence but a few months ago the majority were still against it. But how come the SNP now has 56 out of 59 Scottish seats? I have 3 scenarios:

    1) The SNP vote yesterday wasn’t a vote for independence but a vote to reward the SNP manoeuvring that got Scotland extra goodies from Westminster in the run up to the referendum (devo-max). The voters probably liked that no matter how the voted in the referendum.

    2) The SNP vote was a two-fingered reaction to the anti-Scottish mutterings from the Tories et al regarding the make up of the next govt.

    3) The SNP vote was a guilty – “I wanted to vote for independence but was too chicken. I feel bad now so am taking the safer option and voting SNP now”

    Or maybe a mixture of all three. Also, the tremendous performance of Nicola Sturgeon on the national stage would have helped as well.

  30. Do you expect more free stuff for Scotland going forward, or does Cameron have an ( English ) mandate to stop or slow the gravy train now.

  31. Phantom, on May 7th, 2015 at 10:15 PM Said:
    Was the UKIP expected to win more seats?

    No, but they were not expected (after the media onslaught) to get millions of votes either.

    But they did.

  32. Phantom, on May 8th, 2015 at 3:49 PM Said:
    It is unbelievably hard to gain traction as a new party.

    It must be even more difficult, when you have the whole of the establishment, the BBC, and just about every other ‘main stream media’ organisation against you.

    A

  33. Phantom, on May 8th, 2015 at 3:49 PM Said:
    It is unbelievably hard to gain traction as a new party.

    It must be even more difficult, when you have the whole of the establishment, the BBC, and just about every other ‘main stream media’ organisation against you.

    Not to mention the true masters at Brussels.

  34. “Phantom

    Do you expect more free stuff for Scotland going forward, or does Cameron have an ( English ) mandate to stop or slow the gravy train now.”

    Going by what DC and Boris have been saying it’s free Federal status for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    I think it’s different to the US. If countries that have been joined together as one country become federal states, then I think it’s only a matter of time before they are fully separate, imo.

    “FewsOrange

    I wonder what David Milliband is thinking today.”

    For this I stabbed my brother in the back?!?

  35. No wonder some of them are so glum, they will not be able to put the cost of the wreaths on tax payer funded expenses.

    Hours after defeated Miliband resigns, the winners and losers of last night’s electoral drama gather on V.E. Day to remember the people who made it all possible with REAL sacrifices
    Hours after election ends political leaders gathered to remember war dead

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3072723/Ed-Miliband-resign-leading-Labour-disastrous-election-defeat.html#ixzz3ZYuEULQN
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  36. //How can you say that ( Scotland leaving the UK ) was decided long ago, when the pro independence people lost the recent referendum? Not by much, but they lost it//

    Phantom, the general trajectory of politics in S has been towards independence – or at least towards such a degree of devolution that’s virtual independence – for a long time.
    The recent referendum was the first time the people faced the question. They were naturally uncertain and a bit scared, as MourneReg said. People everywhere are generally conservative, and afraid of taking things into their own hands unless they have some hope of coming under some other, more sound umbrella (see the general fission in E European countries over the past few decades, which happened only in the context of a welcoming EU and NATO as an alternative to the failed communist states). The Scots needed more time to see if they can really work it out by themselves, and increasing devolution will give them that opportunity. But the trend is unmistakeable.

    In fact, I see a trend towards greater regionalistion overall in Europe, as the EU institutions continue to consolidate and make the old nation states less necessary. Some of the regions of Spain, Italy, even Germany may one day want to go it alone and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t give it a try.

  37. Living on the Scottish/English borders in Berwick, where the LibDems have held sway for more than 40 years, this election has been a massive game-changer: They lost heavily to a female Tory candidate who garnered over 40% of the vote, while Ukip came last with 11%.

    Meanwhile across the Border the Scots have voted for a one-party state. The SNP.
    That’ll backfire in 2017, and well beyond.
    Bad call, Jocks.

  38. Herr Klegg was almost in floods of tears, I was as well, I have not laughed so much since the old King died.

  39. But, Peter, did you not also predict that UKIP would do well in this election?

    No, I predicted that our absurdly undemocratic electoral system would hammer them, and so it has.

    It has also delivered 95% of the seats in Scotland to the SMP on 55% of the vote.

  40. Hours after defeated Miliband resigns, the winners and losers of last night’s electoral drama gather on V.E. Day to remember the people who made it all possible with REAL sacrifices

    …..and Farage.

    Even the SDLP has more seats then UKIP

    Not to mention that other party from across the water from Westminster:

    That’s very generous of Mike. I see a few problems though.
    There is the pesky issue that he has NO MP’s and is most unlikely to have even 1 MP after May 7th! That poses a bit of a challenge don’t you think?

    FANTASY POLITICS

  41. The first % below is the share of the vote and the second is the share of the seats. You can call it many things, but democratic is not one of them.

    CON 37% 51%
    LAB 30% 36%
    SNP 13% 9%
    LD 8% 1%
    GRN 4%

  42. Sorry, above is wrong for UKIP and SNP:

    Ukip 13% of votes, 1 seat out of 650
    SNP 5% of votes, 9% of seats (56)

  43. That’s misleading, Peter. SNP didn’t contest the vast majority of seats in the UK, as they weren’t in Scotland. Where it did run candidates, it did very well.

    BTW, what’s wrong with the NI electorate that so many voters stay at home? In S. Belfast, the turnout was so low that 9,000 votes were enough to get you a seat in Westminster.

    Still, the Unionist parties did well, increasing their total vote significantly over the 2010 figures. Good luck to them.

  44. Noel

    They won 95% of the Scottish seats on 55% of the Scottish vote. Do you think that’s democracy?

  45. And McCrea lost in South Antrim, and the Shinners lost in Fermanagh, hooray!

  46. It is interesting that the Scots independence referendum – won by unionists by a margin over 10% -settled nothing.

    While the 1995 Quebec independence referendum – won by unionists by a margin of just over 1% – really did settle the matter, for a time, anyway.

    Peter

    One can argue both sides of that. The voters in each district voted in the man or woman that they wanted. I have a hard time thinking there’s an inherent unfairness to it. It has been the rule for a long time.

    The SNP had twice the popular vote of Labour and their geographical spread was impressive.

  47. Phantom the 1995 vote in Quebec settled one thing, it was settled that a super majority was required to leave Canada a simple majority just would not do. It also ushered into the national mindset that if Canada was divisible so was Quebec and a very sizable amount of Quebec physically and population wise would have left.

    But mostly it inured english Canada to the prospect of Quebec leaving and that took away any leverage it might have had

    Most english Canadians if asked now would say we preferred they do not leave but if they have to go, make sure they take their share of the national debt with them when they go. And good luck with the closed borders

  48. Phantom

    Scotland is a shameful example of how undemocratic the first past the post system is. To win 95% of the seats on 55% of the votes is an undemocratic farce, end of.

    The Scottish parliament has a proportional voting system, which has kept the Tories (just about) alive in that country. And the devolved assemblies in Cardiff and Belfast are the same.

  49. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995

    The vote was 50.58% to stay in Canada, 49.42% to go independent.

    So if 51% would have voted to leave, Canada would not have concurred, it would have been subject to further negotiation?

    Yes, Quebec has always had English speaking areas and of course Inuits etc who have never been part of French culture and it does not make sense that those areas would have to secede also. If Canada can be subdivided, then so can Quebec – yes, there is a great logic to that.

  50. Doesn’t proportional voting mean that the representative may not even be a resident of the district that they supposedly represent?

  51. Doesn’t proportional voting mean that the representative may not even be a resident of the district that they supposedly represent?Doesn’t proportional voting mean that the representative may not even be a resident of the district that they supposedly represent?

    So what? Many MPs do not live in their constituencies under the present system. My local MP is one of them.

  52. Doesn’t proportional voting mean that the representative may not even be a resident of the district that they supposedly represent?

    Yes. You have no idea of who you are voting for. The winning individual (literally, their name) is announced after the vote.

    One of the selling points of FPTP is that the names are on the ballot paper. You vote for an individual, their party affiliation is secondary (and in smaller type, as if an afterthought). So you know who to get shot of if he’s not performing.

    Under PR you cannot get rid of an individual, named, identified candidate.

  53. You have no idea of who you are voting for. The winning individual (literally, their name) is announced after the vote.

    Rubbish. We have PR in Northern Ireland local government and assembly elections. All names are on the ballot paper.

  54. That is a very real problem with proportional voting.

    You strengthen the party system ( and I may be OK with that ) but the representative is unknown and may not even be from the area, or familiar with it. Huge defect. A US congressman, and British MP (?) has I think just as high an obligation to serve the district ( often by helping constituents solve problems with the bureaucracy, etc, or advocating for some local interest) as they do to vote on national issues.

    If you are Joe Blow the unknown stranger, I dunno if I can count on you to do local constituent service. It’s a pig in a poke. No thanks.

  55. All names are on the ballot paper.

    Peter

    The representatives from each district are known and there would not be the possibility that they would be able to be posted to another district under any circumstance.?

  56. Phantom

    No, not under the system in NI. In Scotland it is the same except that a party list system elects 10% of the MSPs based on a top-up to ensure that the Assembly reflects the shares of the votes. Ironically, the Tories have been the main beneficiaries of this.

  57. Who you get under PR is dependent on votes everywhere else.

    No Pete, not under the system in Northern Ireland. You have local constituencies and local candidates. So in my area there are (I think) five members elected. The parties will run one or two candidates and hope that at least one of them is elected. They are usually local and they will promote different candidates for first choice in different parts of the constituency.

    Seamus, where are you? Give us the goods on this!

  58. No, not under the system in NI. In Scotland it is the same except that a party list system elects 10% of the MSPs based on a top-up to ensure that the Assembly reflects the shares of the votes.

    As clear as mud.

    If a drunk man has to ask twice how it works, it’s not transparent. Your NI system is not PR, it’s a stitch up no different from FPTP.

  59. Pete

    I’ve explained how it works. It is a local-based system which produces a fair result. You vote 1,2 3 according to your preference and the outcome reflects the voters’ choices far better that FPTP. If you can’t see that then stick to your comfort zone by all means. But reflect on the injustice of the outcome today, especially for UKIP. Even Putin would blush, ok I made that up.

  60. Yes. You have no idea of who you are voting for. –Bollocks

    The winning individual (literally, their name) is announced after the vote. –Bollocks

    One of the selling points of FPTP is that the names are on the ballot paper. — As they are in STV (Single transferable vote, the system used in Ireland)

    You vote for an individual, their party affiliation is secondary — Bollocks, party affiliation is the number one factor when choosing who to vote for in the UK FPTP system.

    (and in smaller type, as if an afterthought). — and still legible

    So you know who to get shot of if he’s not performing. Under PR you cannot get rid of an individual, named, identified candidate. — Bollocks, It is just as possible to get rid of someone under PR as it is under FPTP. In fact in NI parties will run multiple candidates in a constituency giving you the option of voting for the party you want without having to vote for a particular candidate you dislike.

  61. Am I reading right? People think under PR the representatives are unknown??

    Yes, FewsOrange has just the right word for that.

    PR is the voting system used in Ireland, and I doubt if there is a people on earth who know better their political representatives, in fact they’re usually personal acquaintances.

    An election system must fulfill two functions: it must be democratic and must allow a functioning result.

    PR definitely winds hands down on the first criterion. It’s probably the most democratic system possible. Each vote counts – in fact counts several times. From the US and from England we hear of millions of wasted votes, when the voter is, say, a Republican in NY or a Tory in a Labour heartland and knows that he may as well stay at home because the winner in his US state or UK constituency takes it all, and the votes for the loser are ignored.

    In real life, however, there are always degrees of support, and PR reflects this reality. You may prefer candidate A; but if he doesn’t win, you’d still prefer B to candidate C, etc. Your PR ballot slip reflects the whole range of your preferences, and the result gives an almost perfect representation of the people’s will.

    As for how well it works. FPTP definitely makes for stable government (as does dictatorship). However, it’s wrong to think that coalitions (which are much more likely under PR) are necessarily less stable than single party rule. We all know that even a single party contains a spectrum of opinion – ministers frequently resign as protest against their own party’s policies, others mount a leadership challenge, then there are all those pesky backbenchers, etc.

    PR coalitions are just as stable and, representing electoral opinion much more than under FPTP, they lead to a much less disaffected electorate.

    However, it’s amusing to see those defending FPTP also mourning its inevitably distorted results.
    Peter gets it right here.

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