30 2 mins 1 yr

The Prime Minister is in Brussels this for a last-ditch meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Everyone feels a sense of foreboding.

The three possible outcomes are a good deal for the UK (won’t happen), an Aussie/WTO/no-deal (possible), or a bad deal for the UK (KLAXON ALERT).

Fishing is a sticking point. The EU is unable to get its head around the fact that sovereign nations are sovereign over their own waters. A level playing field is a sticking point. The EU is unable to get its head around the fact that sovereign nations have a rather large scope for setting its own laws and standards. The ECJ is a sticking point also. The EU cannot get its head around the fact that non-EU states are not subject to EU courts.

These three have been sticking points from day one and they will not go away. So no good deal, acceptable to both sides, is possible. Boris has a history of selling out. We’ve also seen this year that he has a spine made of custard and a lefty bird who can twist him round her pinky.

If Boris comes back with anything less than a proper Brexit he is finished, the Tories are finished and Prime Minister Farage will know what to do on day one.

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30 thoughts on “BORIS WILL SELL SOMEONE OUT TONIGHT

  1. Does the border down the Irish sea not already qualify.

    You can keep ALL the fish you can catch, just cant sell to the EU.

  2. The EU know that more than 70% of UK seafood exports go to the EU and if you want that to continue without export tariffs then there’ll have to be some horse trading.

    The EU also know that Britain setting its own rules on government subsidies to business have the potential to give British businesses an unfair advantage in the European market.

    The EU further know that the UK enjoying the benefits of tariff-free trading in the Single Market without the obligations others have to meet isn’t a level playing field.

    Were you not cheering for Boris five minutes ago?

  3. “You can keep ALL the fish you can catch, just cant sell to the EU.”

    I think that is a big issue that the Brexiteers don’t have a good answer for. The majority of the fish and seafood caught in UK waters is exported, while the majority of the fish the UK eats is important.

    Because the sort of fish British people want to eat isn’t in abundance in UK waters (primarily cod and haddock – which were previously in abundance but due to overfishing over centuries are now quite scarce). The majority of cod and haddock eaten in Britain comes from the Single Market. Trade barriers with the EU will make the fish most British people eat more expensive – harming British consumers.

    On the flip side the majority of the fish caught in UK waters is not popular in Britain but is popular in Europe (primarily mackerel and certain shellfish). Trade barriers between the UK and the EU will make those products more expensive for European consumers – harming the British fishing industry.

    So a no deal Brexit will harm British fish consumers, and British fish producers. So the idea that there will be a no deal Brexit because of fish is just down right stupid.

  4. Prime Minister Farage will know what to do on day one.

    I for one would love to see it. The Nige as PM for England & possibly Wales? It would be a God send.

    Be careful what you wish for.

  5. cut the bull petem
    you’re in haulage , what are your compadres thinking ? specifically as regards crossing borders and paperwork , how is it working out ” on the coal-face of capitalism” as is your friday wont? what does cbi want? sensible business heads want? not ideologues with heads up their asses ?

  6. Seamus –

    If we each catch what the other side primarily wants then it won’t only be British producers and consumers harmed by WTO terms.

    The overfishing has happened in recent decades, thanks to the Common Fisheries Polict and French, SPanish and Dutch mega-trawlers dredfing the seas and bombing the dish stocks. No environmentalist with a brain cell can possibly be in favour of allowing these horrible foreign practices to continue.

  7. How about allowing a drastically lower catch for a few years, allowing for a better recovery

  8. How about allowing a drastically lower catch for a few years, allowing for a better recovery

    That can only happen with a proper Brexit. Under EU control the French, Spanish and Dutch governments will ensure that overfishing continues. That’s why they’re all in British waters; the fished out their own and there’s bugger all left.

    No-one can be an environmentalist and in favour of the EU. They are hopelessly contradictory positions.

  9. So Pete would have you believe Phantom.

    The EU know that more than 70% of UK seafood exports go to the EU and if you want that to continue without export tariffs then there’ll have to be some horse trading.

  10. “That can only happen with a proper Brexit. Under EU control the French, Spanish and Dutch governments will ensure that overfishing continues. That’s why they’re all in British waters; the fished out their own and there’s bugger all left.”

    Not really. The EU has adopted a new law – fishing quotas must be set under the “maximum sustainable yield”. The UK, so far anyway – and while saying they will set policy using MSY, has refused to follow suit after Brexit in placing that obligation into law. Setting quotas at MSY would prevent overfishing. EU law would prevent overfishing in UK waters. British law does not.

  11. “If we each catch what the other side primarily wants then it won’t only be British producers and consumers harmed by WTO terms.”

    Yes it is both sides who will be harmed, but then it is the British insiting on doing the harm, not the European Union.

  12. Pete

    You need to calm down. There will be no deal tonight because there will be no deal, end of. It’s been obvious for months. It will be great for our fish stocks but let’s not kid ourselves that it won’t mean the end of the UK as a volume car manufacturer, because it will. Tariffs of 20% or more will mean no new investment and a gradual wind-down as Toyota has made clear this week. By 2030 there will be very little left.

    Arch Brexiteer-patriot and tax dodger “Sir” Jim Ratcliffe has decided not to build his new vehicle in Wales and has opted for France. Never trust a flag-waving tax dodger:

    “Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has chosen to build the “British” successor to the Land Rover Defender 4×4 in France, rather than Bridgend in Wales. Ratcliffe, who has built up an estimated £12.15bn fortune from petrochemicals company Ineos, announced on Tuesday that the Ineos Grenadier vehicle will be built at a former Mercedes-Benz factory in Hambach, close to the French-German border. The deal will “safeguard” 1,300 jobs at the factory, but dash hopes for an automotive revival in south Wales. Ratcliffe, a vocal Brexit supporter who recently left the UK for tax-free Monaco, said Hambach had presented the company with “a unique opportunity that we simply could not ignore”. He said that in Hambach, Ineos was buying “a modern automotive manufacturing facility with a world-class workforce”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ineos-boss-opts-to-build-british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france/ar-BB1bKhBs

  13. Seamus –

    The EU has state aid rules which it conveniantly ignored over Airbus. It has deficit rules which it conveniantly firgets every year. The EU is literally lawless when it suits the EU.

    Peter –

    Fine, so German car exports to its biggest overseas market (the UK) have the same tariff.

  14. The EU has state aid rules which it conveniantly ignored over Airbus

    What were the state aid rules conveniantly ignored over Airbus?

  15. Seamus,

    “So the idea that there will be a no deal Brexit because of fish is just down right stupid.”

    You could have left out “because of fish”.

    There are too many areas of agreement and it is too much in both sides interests (or at least in the people’s interests) to have no deal at all. Both sides are literally starting from identical rules. It would be as if East Sussex and West Sussex decide to trade on wto terms overnight despite starting from identical rules. That there should be a deal at least until one side diverges seems almost a no brainer.

  16. Brexit

    Continuing to be the biggest most expensive pointless waste of political effort time and resources in modern British history.

  17. Fine, so German car exports to its biggest overseas market (the UK) have the same tariff.

    Of course Pete. But I can recall a certain David Davis assuring us in 2016 that this would never happen because he would be going straight to Berlin to get “the easiest trade deal in the world”.

    On the bright side, it will be the end of sheep farming. Hugely destructive to our environment and wouldn’t exist without huge government subsidies. The 60% tariff should take care of it. George Monbiot will be a happy man:

    “Sheep have reduced most of our uplands to bowling greens with contours. Only the merest remnants of life persist. Spend two hours sitting in a bushy suburban garden and you are likely to see more birds and of a greater range of species than in walking five miles across almost any part of the British uplands. The land has been sheepwrecked.”

    https://www.monbiot.com/2013/05/30/sheepwrecked/

  18. And just for the record I supported Brexit, just not this Brexit. Even Farage was talking about a Norway-style agreement in 2016.

    But like all revolutions, the extremists tend to sieze control (think France 1789 or Russia 1917) and the revolution also tends to eat its own children (Robbespierre, Trotsky). Johnson ruthlessly purged the Remainer Tories a year ago and he probably thinks he can avoid the fate of Cameron and May and Davis and Cummings by riding the tiger. But it will eat him too for sure. I’m just wondering when the Committee for Public Safety will be formed and who will lead it.

  19. It’s over. No “breakthrough” at the dinner tonight in Brussels. We are clearly at the point where the patient has died on the operating table despite resussitation attempts and the senior surgeon needs to say “I think we should stop now”.

    “Dinner talks between Boris Johnson and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen – aimed at breaking the Brexit trade talks deadlock – ended without agreement. A Downing Street spokesperson said “very large gaps remain” but talks will continue with a “firm decision” on the prospects of a deal by Sunday. Mrs von der Leyen said in a statement that the two sides were “far apart”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55249561

  20. Despite his promises he’s already sold Northern Ireland out.
    It can’t get any worse than it already is.
    Just imagine for one second if there was an ‘England Protocol’ and it gave the same terms to just England as what he has agreed for NI?
    And no one seems to care?

  21. Ireland sacrificed the 6 counties because England promised terrible war if there wasn’t partition. England have now sacrificed Northern Ireland so they can pretend they are big boys and girls, but by that very act they show just how weak they are.

    And let’s not forget that the DUP were canvassing directly in England for Brexit. Talk about Turkeys voting for Christmas. The unionist lions led by donkeys.

  22. Can someone confirm if I’m getting this even very generally right:

    – in January or thereabouts, the Withdrawal Deal agreed with the EU contained provisions allowing for customs tariffs between Britain and NI

    – then sometime this summer the UK govt inserted provisions overriding these agreed clauses

    – then the House of Lords took those provisions out again

    – then the House of Commons, just this week, reinserted the provisions again

    – now a few days ago the UK govt said it taking them out again to facilitate a EU-UK deal after all.

    It does seem a bit confusing, especially as Johnson told us that Brexit would be so easy.

  23. not too sure on detail Noel

    my take is :
    Scarecrow meets Elegant Lady in Brussels ( hated word on the Right !)
    gets ass handed to him on a plate,
    Returns to MOAB , where no option is a good one
    Isolation will hurt UK tremendously , not so much EU

  24. Just imagine for one second if there was an ‘England Protocol’ and it gave the same terms to just England as what he has agreed for NI?

    But why would there be JM? England has a population five times that of the other three parts of the UK combined and anything, anything done collectively in a UK context will alway favour England and be on English terms, including Brexit where England was the engine that drove the movement. That staunchest of staunch Englanders, Pete Moore, has admitted himself that dissolution of the small union is a price worth paying to get England out of the bigger union.

    Johnson told us that Brexit would be so easy

    Precisely the kind of low on detail high in simplicity premise that the original referendum was sold on, Noel.

  25. Looking like no deal in the short term, but likely eventually even if sometime in 2021.

    So, the brexit diehards will get their much desired no deal BREXIT for rUK… for now. However, not only have they given up partial sovereignty of part of the UK, they will eventually crawl back and sacrifice sterling to get back into the club.

    You shouldn’t need to be Nostradamus to see this. I genuinely like the UK and its people, but they are the ones harming themselves.

  26. They will eventually crawl back and sacrifice sterling to get back into the club.

    I think that could be a feasible reality after a few years, when Brexit begins to bite

  27. Pete Moore

    No-one can be an environmentalist and in favour of the EU. They are hopelessly contradictory positions.

    Well you should know Pete, you’re the expert on holding contradictory positions.

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