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Readers may be under the impression propagated as recently as yesterday by the BBC that the Eurozone has gotten over the crisis of recent years. NOTHING could be further from the truth and all that implies. Consider…

Greek MPs have rejected the presidential candidate nominated by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, triggering a snap general election. Stavros Dimas failed to reach the necessary 180 votes, which means that parliament will have to be dissolved.

Greece’s economy has begun to recover after six years of recession. But Greeks have endured years of austerity and the left-wing Syriza party leading the polls wants the terms of a huge EU-IMF bailout renegotiated. Although unemployment in Greece has begun falling from a record 28% early this year, it is still extremely high, at 25.5%.

Syriza have an impregnable lead in the polls and when the elections take place in late January you can be sure the Euro will plunge further as the oft anticipated break up becomes closer…

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  1. Syriza have an impregnable lead

    I wish that was correct, but:

    “(Reuters) – Greek left-wing opposition party Syriza’s poll lead over the ruling conservatives has narrowed slightly to 3.0 percentage points, according to a poll published after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras proposed a Jan. 25 parliamentary election. The survey conducted by Marc for Alpha TV showed the anti-bailout Syriza party would get 28.1 percent of the vote if an election were held now, versus 25.1 percent for Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy party.”

    Between now and the election, the Greek people will be bombarded with scare stories of what will happen if Syriza wins. The EU big-wigs have already weighed in. Let’s hope the people have the courage on the day to make a decisive change.

  2. Is there anything left of Greece?
    Many of their islands and big chunks of real estate have been sold to foreign investors.

    “I’m lovin’ it” — goes the slogan.
    “So are we” — says Goldman Sachs.

  3. Logically Greece should have the Euro by now but the political will in the country and the rest of the Eurozone to keep the status quo is immense. Whatever happens in the election I don’t think that will change in the next ten years.

  4. Syriza’s policy is to stay in the euro but secure debt write-offs of 50%. That would bring Greek debt down from 170% of GDP to 85%. The Germans are already playing hardball since the election was called.

  5. // the Euro will plunge further as the oft anticipated break up becomes closer…//

    Probably nowhere as oft anticipated as on this site. David, you’ve been predicting the imminent collapse of the Euro and the general collapse of the EU since I’ve been coming here.

    Your prediction isn’t likely to be any more accurate this time. Greece is a small economy, it accounts for less than 3 pc of EU output. Whatever happens politically or economically there, it will never have major consequeneces for the EU. The economies of Spain, Portugal and, of course, Ireland are also showing significant improvement.

  6. One of the reasons why many of the countries in the Eurozone are beginning to do well, is because most of the young economically inactive have left the country. Some will send money home to help relatives no doubt. And not having so many people on state benefits will help also.

    There is always a bottom. The question is, have far have they fallen ? Also, when it comes to Germany’s turn, I’d doubt few will be as kind. What goes around, comes around. And Greeks, Spanish, Italians and Irish all have very long memories.

  7. Whatever happens politically or economically there, it will never have major consequeneces for the EU.

    If Greece elects Syriza (I think the odds are against, despite the polls) and secures a significant debt write-off, Ireland and Spain and Portugal will expect the same treatment. That could have major consequences for the Eurozone.

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